Woodfuel resource and the UK market

Bruno Prior Managing Director Forever Fuels Ltd

Scientific confidence?

Energy policy scientistic certainty?

Politicians, civil servants and their advisers know: Future heat/electricity/transport demand & price Contribution of each:
fuel-type (gas, oil, coal, renewables, etc) to each use technology to the renewable share of each use size-band within each technology to the renewable share of each use

How these components will develop to 2020 and 2050, inc. technical and economic developments

Woodfuel resource uncertainty

Supply Demand Price Uses Impacts Alternatives Policy Nature

Woodfuel supply/demand (UK)

Projected demand for solid biomass (UK nREAP):
GWh Electricity (output) Electricity (input) Heating & Cooling (output) Heating & Cooling (input) Combined (output) Combined (input) 2005 4,347 13,584 5,385 6,335 9,732 19,919 2010 5,500 17,188 3,547 4,172 9,047 21,360 2020 20,590 64,344 42,008 49,421 62,598 113,765

Projected supply of biomass from forests (UK nREAP): 2006: 6,769 GWh 2015: 12,316 GWh 2020: 17,840 GWh

Woodfuel supply/demand (EU)

Projected demand for solid biomass (EU nREAPs):
GWh Electricity (output) Electricity (input) Heating & Cooling (output) Heating & Cooling (input) Combined (output) Combined (input) 2005 57,950 181,094 555,682 654,920 613,632 836,014 2010 101,069 315,841 629,171 740,210 730,240 1,056,051 2020 202,500 632,813 915,083 1,076,568 1,117,583 1,709,381

Projected supply of biomass from forests, inc. imports (EU nREAPs): 2006: 689,182 GWh 2015: 675,191 GWh 2020: 734,155 GWh

Woodfuel supply (non-EU)

Forest area (km2) Forest % of land

Russia
Brazil Canada

8,087,900
4,776,980 3,101,340

49%
56% 34%

USA
China Australia Sweden Germany UK

3,030,890
1,972,900 1,636,780 275,280 110,760 28,450

33%
21% 21% 67% 32% 12%

Price
Not static:
Cost of engaging marginal supply vs Economies of scale (Learning curves? Cherry-picking?)

Uses
Energy uses
CHP better than Heat better than Electricity, but Local heat use? Reliable demand? Conversion efficiencies Types of woodfuel (e.g. bark, recovered wood)

Non-energy uses
Board, pulp, leisure, etc.

Impacts
Air quality (technology, location, scale, background) Land-use (direct/indirect, positive/negative) Carbon footprint (production, transport, conversion efficiency) Energy security

Alternatives
Biomass supply (EU nREAPs):
GWh 2006 Forestry Agriculture Waste Total 6,769 1,768 25,539 34,076 UK 2015 12,316 19,213 2020 2006 17,840 689,182 68,896 180,195 94,761 EU 2015 675,191 313,591 131,314 2020 734,155 435,939 180,021

78,351 111,253

109,881 197,989 964,139 1,120,109 1,350,115

Other renewables Other fuels

Projected solid biomass demand in 2020: UK: 113,765 GWh, EU: 1,709,381 GWh

Policy
Policy competition (targets vs inelastic supply) Budget constraints (targets vs bankruptcy) Public perception (targets vs vote-buying) Export promotion (Canada, Brazil) Export prohibition (Russia) Response to changing scientific advice

Nature
Disease/parasite (mountain pine beetle, phytophthora) Fire Drought Storm-blow Reduced ice cover (shipping routes) Changing growth rates (CO2, temperature, land fertility) Earthquake/tsunami (Japanese biomass demand?) Population change (and changing expectations)

Dealing with uncertainty

Demand > or < Supply? Central plans: ignorant, out-of-date, inflexible, public-choice Internalise externality and let market allocate Allows people close to each opportunity to determine best option for the circumstances Discovery through competition

Changing planners incentives

Politicians = short-term vote buyers Civil servants = unaccountable empire builders Advisers = inexperienced and irresponsible rent-seekers (heads I win, tails you lose) If central planners faced real consequences

Woodfuel resource and the UK market

Bruno Prior, Managing Director, Forever Fuels Ltd
European Bioenergy Conference & Exhibition, 2011, Stoneleigh Park

225 Blackamoor Lane Maidenhead Berks. SL6 8RT www.forever-fuels.com 01628 509690