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In this chapter, we extend the discussion of interest rates futures. This chapter is organized into the following sections: 1. The T-Bond Futures Contract 2. Sellers Options for T-Bond Futures 3. Interest Rate Futures Market Efficiency 4. Hedging with T-Bond Futures
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N o v e m b e r 1 5 , 250.2 8 25 N o v e m b e r 1 5 , 280.0 1 20
To answer these two questions, we need to determine the invoice amount and then which bond is cheapest-todeliver.
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CF = conversion factor
the conversion factor as provided by the CBOT
AI
= accrued interest
the Interest that has accrued since the last coupon payment on the bond
Pi
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January to July February to August March to September April to October May to November June to December July to January August to February September to March October to April November to May December to June 1 year (any 2 consecutive halfB years)
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The 8% bond has an invoice amount 34% greater than the 5.25% bond.
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Acquiring and carrying a bond to delivery involves three cash flows as well:
1. 2. 3. The amount paid today to purchase the bond. The finance cost associated with obtaining money today to buy a bond in the future. The receipt and reinvesting of coupon payment.
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You are considering two bonds for delivery. The bonds are as follows:
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N o v e m b e r 1 5 , 2 5 .285 02 N o v e m b e r 1 5 , 2 8 .010 02
Step 2: estimate the accrued interest that will accumulate from the next coupon date, Nov 15, 2004 if the planned delivery date is Dec 31, 2004 (46 days).
5.25% Bond AI2 = (46/181) (0.5) (0.0525) ($100,000) = $667.13 8% Bond AI2 = (46/181) (0.5) (0.08) ($100,000) = $1,016.57
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The profit from the 5.25% bond is higher, so it is the cheapest- to-deliver.
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The numerator consists of cash inflows of the Invoice Amount, plus the future value of the coupons at the time of delivery, less the cost of acquiring the bond initially. The denominator consists of the cost of buying the bond. Thus, the Implied repo rates is:
Implied Repo Rate = DFP 0 ($100,000) (CF ) + AI 2 + funcCOUP 1 (1 + C1,2) - (P0 + AI (P0 + AI 0 )
0
Implied Repo Rate = 0.0499 Annualized, the implied repo rate is: 0.0499(360/180) = 16.63%
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Implied Repo Rate = 0.0337 Annualized, the implied repo rate is: 0.0337(360/180) = 13.23% The cheapest-to-deliver bon has the highest repo rate in a cash-and-carry arbitrage, so we should deliver the 5.25% bond.
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T a b le 8 .3 T r a n s a c tio n s S h o w in g Im p lie d R e p o
S ep tem b er 14, 2004 B o rro w $129,745.92 fo r 108 d ays at im p lied rep o rate o f 11.23 p erc en t. B u y $100,000 fac e valu e-b o n d s m atu rin g o n N o v. 15, 2021, fo r a to tal o f 8.00 T p ric e o f $129,745.92 g ac cd i ed in teres t. n in c lu ru S ell o n e D E C -b o nT fu tu res c o n trac t at th e c u rren t p ric e o f 106 04 d -23. N o vem b er 15, 2004 R ec eive c o u p o n p aym en t o f $4,000 an d in ves t fo r 46 d ays at 7.00 p erc en t. D ec em b er 31, 2004 (A s s u m in g fu tures is s till at 106 -23)
D eliv th e b o n d an d rec eive in vo ic e am o u n t o f $130,082.23 er F ro m th e in ves ted c o u p o n rec eive $4,000 + $4,000 (0.07) (46/360) = $4,035.7 R ep ay d eb t: $129,745.92 + $129,745.9260) = $134,117.06 (0.1123) (108/3 N et P ro fit = $130,082.23 + B $134,117 = $.95 (g iven ro u n d in g $4,035.78 .06 0 erro r)
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60) =
.06 = $.95
A closer examination of Table 8.3 shows some potentially risky elements of the cash-and-carry arbitrage. Notice that:
1. The debt was financed at a constant rate throughout the 108-day carry period. 2. The trader was able to invest the coupon at the reinvestment rate of 7%. 3. The futures price did not change over the horizon.
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Buy futures
Realize profit
Take delivery
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Wildcard Option
The settlement price is determined at 2:00 PM. However, the short seller has until 8:00 PM to notify the exchange of his/her intent to deliver. Thus, the seller can observe what happens between 2:00 PM and 8:00 PM before making his/her decision. If interest rates jump between 2:00 PM and 8:00 PM, the short trader notifies the exchange his/her intent to deliver at the 2:00 PM price. If interest rates stay the same or go down, the short seller waits for the next day to notify the exchange of an intent to deliver.
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Assuming that interest rates are stable, then the seller may apply the following general rules:
1. If the coupon yield on the bond exceeds the financing rate to hold the bond, the seller should deliver on the last day. 2. If the financing rate exceeds the coupon yield, the seller should deliver immediately.
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While many studies neglect the full magnitude of transaction charges, more recent studies find potential for arbitrage even after transaction costs. Pure Arbitrage For a pure arbitrage, the yield discrepancy must be large enough to cover all transaction costs faced by a market outsider. Quasi-Arbitrage Occurs when a trader with an initial portfolio can successfully engage in an arbitrage. For quasi-arbitrage, the trader faces less than full transaction costs.
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Pure Arbitrage
Table 8.9 is from a famous study on the efficiency of the Tbill futures market conducted by Elton, Gruber and Rentzler. They found large arbitrage profits exist, many with single contract profits in excess of $800.
T a b le 8 .9 P u r e A r b itr a g e R e s u lts B illTF u tu r e s fo r B
Immediate Execution
Size of Number Expected Filter of Trades Profit Actual Profit
Delayed Execution
Standard Number Expected Error of Trades Profit Actual Profit Standard Error
$15 16 16 16 17 17 18 18 18
$18 19 19 20 20 21 22 23 24
Source: E. Elton, M. Gruber, and J. Rentzler, Day Tests of the Efficiency of A IntraB the Treasury Bill Futures Market, Review of Economics and Statistics @ The , February 1984, 66, pp. 129 B 137.
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Kolb, Gay and Jordan conducted a study on T-bond futures. They investigated the possibility of a pure arbitrage for all T-bond contracts from December 1977 through June 1981. Figure 8.4 shows the profitability of deliverable bond for 15 contracts maturities.
Insert Figure 8.4 here
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The price of a bill is given by: P = FV - [DY(FV)(DTM)]/360 P= $1,000,000- [(.10)($10,000,000(180)]/360 P= $1,000,000 - $50,000 = $9,500,000,000 By making the above trades, the firm has effectively shortened the maturity from 6 months to three months.
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September 20
December 19
These transactions locked in a 9.8% rate over the four months (Aug-Dec). Thereby, lengthening the maturity of the individuals investments.
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The bank insists that the second 3-month rate be based on the LIBOR prevailing 3 months from today. This is a risky preposition for the construction company.
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These rates give the following cash flows on the loan: Sept 20 Receive principal + $100,000,000 Dec 20 Pay interest - 2,250,000 Mar 20 Pay interest and principal - 102,325,000 The cash flows for September and December are certain but the cash flow for March is unknown. Using the above information, construct a synthetic fixed rate loan.
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By engaging in the above transactions, the company knows with certainty the interest expense that it will pay over the life of the loan. As such, it has created a fixed rate loan.
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Thus, the bank has locked in a profit fo $1,000,000 ($4,575,000 - $3,575,000). The bank has also effectively crated a fixed rate loan.
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The company estimates that it can finance $100,000,000 at the following rates, for an average rate of 9.45%. I Quarter II Quarte r III Quarter IV Quarter 9.0% 9.3 9.6 9.9
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Stack Hedges
A stack hedge occurs when futures contracts are concentrated or stacked in a single future expiration. The construction company enters into a stacked hedge by transacting as shown in Table 8.14.
Table 8.14 Results of a Stack Hedge
Date September 20 Cash Market Borrow $100,000,000 at 9.00, for three months and commit to roll over the loan for three quarters at 200 basis points over the pre vailing LIBOR rate. Pay interest of $2,250,000. LIBOR is now at 7.8 percent, so borrow $100,0 00,000 for three months at 9.8 percent. Pay interest of $2,450,000 and borrow $100,000,000 for three months at 10.10 percent. Pay interest of $2,525,000 and borrow $100,000,000 for three months at 10.40 percent. Pay interest of $2,600,000 and principal of $100,000,000. Total Interest Expense: $9,825 ,000 Interest Expense Net of Hedging: $9,450,000 Futures Profit: $375,000 Futures Market Sell 300 DEC E urodollar futures con tracts at 92.70, reflecting the 7.3% yield.
December 20
Offset 300 DEC Eurodollar futures at 92.20, reflecting the 7.8% yield. Produces profit of $375,000 = 50 basis points $25 per point 300 contracts.
March 20
June 20
September 20
The hedge worked perfectly by locking in the cost of borrowing regardless of the future course of interest rates.
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Stack Hedges
Notice that in the above example all interest rates change by 50 basis points. Stack hedges may perform poorly if interest rates change in differing amounts. That is, the yield curve shifts. Figure 8.5 illustrates this situation.
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Strip Hedge
A strip hedge uses an equal number of contracts for each futures expiration over the hedging horizon. By doing so, the futures market hedge is aligned with the actual risk exposure. The transactions necessary to implement a strip hedge are demonstrated in Table 8.15.
Tb 8 5 a le .1 Rs lt o aSr Hd e e u s f t ip e g
Date September 20 Cash Market Borrow $100,000,000 at 9.00% for three months and commit to roll over the loan for three quar ters at 200 basis points over the pre vail ing LIBOR rate. Pay interest of $2,250,000. LIBOR is now at 7.4% so bor , row $100,0 00,000 for three months at 9.4% . Pay interest of $2,350,000 and borrow $100,000,000 for three months at 10.30% . Futures Market Sell 100 Euro dollar futures for each of: DEC at 92.70, MAR at 92.40, and JUN at 92.10.
December 20
Offset 100 DEC Eurodollar futures at 92.60. Pro duces profit of $25,000 = 10 basis points $25 per point 100 contracts. Offset 100 MAR Eurodollar futures at 91.70. Produces profit of $175,000 = 70 basis points $25 per poi nt 100 contracts. Offset 100 JUN Eurodollar futures at 91.40. Produces profit of $175,000 = 70 basis points $25 per point 100 contracts.
March 20
June 20
Pay interest of $2,575,000 and borrow $100,000,000 for three months at 10.60% .
September 20
Pay interest of $2,650,000 and principal of $100,000,000. Total Interest Expense: $9,825 ,000 Futures Profit: $375,000
The performance of a strip hedge is superior to the stack hedge because the interest rates adjust every quarter.
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Table 8.16 and 8.17 illustrate to effect of maturity and coupon rates on hedging performance.
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Notice that this loss occurs despite the fact that rates changed by the same amount on both investments.
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Again the hedge did not produce the desired results of isolating the portfolio.
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According to FVN Model, the hedger should hedge $1 of face value of the cash instrument with $1 face value of the futures contract. Disadvantages Neglects potential differences in market values between the cash and futures positions. Neglects the coupon and maturity characteristics that affect duration for both the cash market good and the futures contract.
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BPC S BPC F
= dollar price change for a 1 basis point change in the spot instrument. = dollar price change for a 1 basis point change in the futures instrument.
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BPC S HR = - RV BPC F
where: RV = volatility of cash market yield relative to futures yield. Normally found by regressing the yield of the cash market instrument on the futures market yield. Assume a RV equal to 1.25. Now the hedge ratio is:
Because more T-bill futures were sold, the futures profit still almost exactly offsets the commercial paper loss.
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HR = -
COV S , F 2 F
where: COVS,F = covariance between cash and futures F2 = variance of futures Recall from Chapter 4, the hedge ratio is the negative of the regression coefficient found by regressing the change in the cash position on the change in the futures position. These changes can be measured as dollar price changes or as percentage price changes.
S t = + Ft + t
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N=-
Pi MDi RYC FP F MD F
= the futures contract price. = the price of asset I expected to prevail at the hedging horizon. = the modified duration of asset I expected to prevail at the hedging horizon. = the modified duration of the asset underlying futures contract F expected to prevail at the hedging horizon. = for a given change in the risk-free rate, the change in the cash market yield relative to the change in the futures yield, often assumed to be 1.0 in practice.
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For the T-bill hedge, the number of contracts to trade is given by:
N=($826.30) (7.207358) = - 0.025636 ($985,000) (0.235849)
The performance of the T-bond and T-bill hedges are presented in Table 8.21.
T P e r f o r m
b a
l e 8 . 2 1 n c e A n
P e r c e n t a g e H e d g i n g E r r o r1 .8 8 2 2 % 0 .9 9 6 5 %
The T-bond hedge is slightly more effective as it produces a lower hedging error.
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H e d g in
F a c e V a l u e N a iv ee d g e $ 1 o f c a s h in s t r u m e n t f a c e v a l u e w ith $ 1 o f f u t u H (F V N ) in s t rm e n t f a c e v a l u e . u M a r k e t V a luvee N H e d g e $ 1 o f c a s h in s t r u m e n t m a r k e t v a lu e w it h $ 1 o f i a (M V N ) f u t u r e s in s t r u m e n t m a r k e t v a lu e . C o n v e r s io n F a c tio rd r a t io o f c a s h m a r k e t p r in c i p a l t o f u t u r e s m a r k e t F n (C F ) p r i n c i p a l. M u lt ip l y t h is r a t io b y t h e c o n v e r s i o n f a c t o r f o t h e c h e a Bt e se l iv e r in s t r u m e n t . p od t B a s is P o in t ( B PF)o r a 1 b a s i s p o in t y i e ld c h a n g e , f in d t h e r a ti o o f th e c a m akr e t p r ic e c h a n g e t o t h e f u t u r e s m a r k e t p r ic e c h a n g e ( S o m e t i m e s w e i g h t e d b y t h e r e l a t iv e v o la t ilit y o f in t e r e r a t e s n th e c a s h m a r k e t in s t r u m e n t c o m p a r e d t o t h e o f u t u r e s inm tern t i n t e r e s t r a t e .) s u R e g r e s s i o n ( R G R )r a g iv e n c a s h m a r k e t p o s it io n , u s e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y Fo t o f in d t h e f u t u r e s p o s it io n th a t m i n im i z e s t h e v a r i a n c e t h e c o m b in e d c a s h / f u t u r e s p o s it io n . P r ic e S e n s it iv itU s i n g d u r a t io n a n a l y s i s , f in d t h e f u t u r e s m a r k e t p o s it io y (P S ) d es ig n e d t o g i v e a z e r o w e a lt h c h a n g e a t t h e h e d g i n g h z o n . ( S o m e t im e s w e ig h t e d b y t h e r e la t iv e v o la t i lit y o f in t e r e s t r a te s o n t h e c a s h m a r k e t in s t r u m e n t c o m p a r e d t h e f u t u r e s in s t r tu in t e r e s t r a t e .) m en
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Immunization
In bond investing, maturity mismatches result in exposure to interest rate risk. Consider the case of a bank. when the asset duration is higher than the liability duration, a sudden rise in interest rates will cause the value of the portfolio to decline. When the asset duration is less than the liability duration a sudden rise in interest rates will cause the value of the portfolio to rise. By matching the duration of asset and liabilities, it is possible for the bank to immunize itself from changes in interest rates. We consider two examples of immunization: 1. Planning Period Case 2. Bank Immunization case
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T a b le 8 .2 3 In s t r u m e n t s f o r t h e
C op o n u Bond A: 8% Bond B: 10% Bond C: 4% 6% TBB o n d t u r e s * Fu B TBB i l l F ur e s * tu * F o r c o m p a r a b ilit y , fa c e M taur it y 4 10 15 20 yrs . yrs . yrs . yrs . Y i e l d P r i c e D u at i o n r
Im
1 2 % 8 7 5 .8 0 3 .4 6 0 5 1 2 % 8 8 5 .3 0 6 .3 0 9 2 1 2 % 4 4 9 .4 1 9 .2 8 5 3 1 2 % 5 4 8 .6 1 9 .0 4 0 1 3 y r . 1 2 % 9 7 0 .0 0 0 .2 5 0 0 v a lu e s o f $ 1 ,0 0 0 a re a s s u m e d fo r th
The portfolio manager has a $100 million bond portfolio of bond C with a duration of 9.2853 years and is considering two alternatives. The manager has a 6-year planning period. The manager wants to shorten the portfolio duration to six years to match the planning period, and is considering two alternatives to do so.
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W A D A + W C DC = 6 years
Subject to:
WA + WC = 1
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Expressing the change in the price of a bond as a function of duration and the yield on the asset: dP = -D{d(1 + r)/(1 + r)}P
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Solving by: DP PP = DC PC NC + DT-bill FPT-bill NT-bill Or alternatively for a T-bond: DP PP = DC PC NC + DT-bond FPT-bond NT-bond Table 8.24 shows the relevant data for each of the three scenarios.
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T a b le 8 .2 4 P o r t f o lio C h a r a c t e r is tic s f o r t h e P la n n in g P e r io d C
P o rtfo lio 1 (B o n d s O n ly) P o rtfo lio 2 (S h o rt -B ill F u.) T t P o rtfo lio 3 (S h o rt -Bo n d F u t.) T
P o rtfolio V a lu e
WA WC WC ash NA NC NT-b ill NT-b o n d NAPA NCPC NT-b illF PT-b ill NT-b o n d PT-b o n d F C a sh NAPA + NCPC + C ash
B 100% ~0 0 222,514 (1,354,764 ) B B 100,00 0,017 1,31 4,121,080 B (17) 100,00 0,000
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FPT-bond = $598.85 Table 8.25 shows the effect of the interest rate shift on portfolio values, terminal wealth at the horizon (year 6), and on the total wealth position of the portfolio holder.
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O r i g in a l P o r t f o lei o V a l 1 0 0 , 0,0 0 0 u 00 1 0 0 , 0,0 0 0 1 0 0 , 0,0 0 0 00 00 N e w P o r t f o li o V a l ue 1 0 5 ,9 4 5 ,6 7 4 1 0 9 ,3 2 5 ,51 0 9 ,3 2 5 ,5 6 2 62 G a i/n o s s o n uF e s L t ru (3 ,3 8 6 ,9 1 03 ,3 2 8 ,0 4 8 ) () B0B T o t a l W e a lt h C h a n g e 5 ,9 4 5 ,6 7 4 5 ,9 3 8 ,6 5 25 ,9 9 7 ,5 1 4 T e r m i n a l V a lu e o f a l l F u$2 d 1 , 4 2 4 , 7 0 8 $ 2 0 1 , 4 1 1 , 3$5280 1 , 5 2 3 , 2 7 n0s at = 6 A n n u a l i z e di nHgo Pdo di l er 1 .1 2 0 1 8 0 1 . 1 2 0 1 1 .1 2 0 2 6 6 68 R eu r n o v e r 6 Y e a r s t
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Source: Adapted from R. Kolb and G.A Gay, Immunizing Bond Portfolios with Interest Rate FuF tures, @
in a n -
Notice that the cost of becoming immunized varies from $949,315 to $13,240 depending upon the strategy selected.
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The portfolios are presented in Table 8.26. For each portfolio, the full $100,0000,000 is put into a bond portfolio and is balanced out by cash.
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Number of NA Instru NB ments NC NTBbill NTBbond NAPA NBPB NCPC Cash NTBbillPTBbill NTBbond PTBbond Portfolio Value
51,093,296 0 99,999,720 99,999,720 0 0 0 0 0 0 48,906,594 100,000,017 0 0 100,000,017 110 (17) 280 280 (17) (1,190,440,26) 0 1,139,482,280 0 0 0 0 0 31,512,158 0 (32,920,989)
Source: Adapted from R. Kolb and G. Gay, A Immunizing Bond Portfolios with Interest Rate Futures, @ Financial Management , Summer 1982, pp. 81 -89.
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