CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT

Presented by H. S. Brahma
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Government of India

Mason Cooleys Observations (1927)

A review of the rising numbers of the people in absolute poverty, of growing gaps between the rich and the poor, of ongoing environmental degradation, globalization of consumer culture and of the global environmental impact of industrialization all set against the seeming lack of political and population go for change, certainly makes it look like humanity has been courting disaster.

DISASTER RISK

DISTRIBUTION OF NATURAL DISASTERS

ALASKA CHINA

USA

JAPAN INDONESIA INDIA

IMPACT OF MITIGATION & PREPAREDNESS MEASURES

ALASKA CHINA

USA

JAPAN INDONESIA INDIA

Risk Processes
Global scale contemporary risk processes challenges disaster management in two ways: The models of global change (past industrialization in North America and Europe) are often distanced in time and space from its impact (i.e. Bangladesh, India etc.) Mitigating disaster requires coordination at the local, national and global levels.

Framework Convention on Climate Change The threat of climate change that led to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) at Rio, is perceived differently by different countries. This fact has delayed any effective international agreement on how to deal with the problem.

Perception
In the case of the Montreal Protocol covering ozone-depleting substances, there was a wide consensus and effective action was mobilized quickly. Thus, an understanding of perceptions and positions of different countries makes it easier to explore possibilities of effective action.

Indias perceptions on the problem of climate change and sustainable development: A. the kind of different perceptions and Indias stand B. The policies India has undertaken so far and finally Indias possibilities for action that can help contain the threat of climate change.

Why should India be Concerned about Climate Change?

India should be concerned about climate change since this would have serious adverse impacts on A. Agriculture, livelihood B. Sea level rise leading to submergence of highly productive coastal areas C. Increased frequency of extreme events like cyclones, floods, droughts etc D. Water Resources

In the recent years, there has been a dramatic increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters in the World and their consequential effects, in terms of loss of lives and manifold increase in economic and financial losses. The global economic losses due to disasters from the 1960s to the 1990s show almost a nine fold increase.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO DISASTERS

Losses in US $ Billion
1960s 1970s
PERIOD

1980s

1990s

Note : 1. UN Declared the decade of 1990-1999 as International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. 2. Losses 1995-1999 - Developed World 2.5% of GDP. - Developing World 13.4% of GDP.
*Source www.em-dat.net

The economic losses suffered due to disasters in India from 1991 to 2005, also depict an alarming trend in the degree of vulnerability and exposure to risk amounting to financial loss of nearly 2 per cent of the GDP.

Vulnerability is increasing with

Rising population Haphazard Urbanization Developments in High-Risk zones Environmental Degradation Climate Change etc.

Earthquake, Oct, 2005

MAJOR DISASTERS (1980-2005)

Avalanche Feb 2005

Earthquake Uttarkashi, 20 Oct 1991, Chamoli, 23 April 1999

Flood, Assam & Bihar 2004 Bhuj, Earthquake, 26 January, 2001 Bhopal Gas Tragedy, Dec 1982

Earthquake, Latur, 30 Sept 1993

S Cyclone 29 Oct 1999

Floods, Mumbai, 26 July 2005

Tsunami 26 Dec 2004

Tsunami 26 Dec 2004

Tsunami 26 Dec 2004

Disaster Management in India: Historical Landmarks

 HPC on Disaster Management set up in August 1999  Innumerable loss of human life and property; retardation of developmental growth
 Orissa Cyclone (29th October 1999)  Gujarat Earthquake (26th January 2001)  Tsunami (26th December 2004)  J&K Earthquake (9th October, 2005)

 Building culture of preparedness, quick response, strategic thinking and prevention

 Setting up of National Disaster Management Authority  Enactment of Disaster Management Act 2005

Recent Disasters in India (1990-2005)

YEAR PLACES & DISASTER LOSS OF LIVES (APPROX) 2000 9500 200 2000 9887 14000 15000 700 350 1569 LOSS OF PROPERTY ( Rs Crore) APPROX) 2000 6000 5000 2000 10000 13400 10000 5000 100 10300 1991 1993 1997 1999 1999 2001 2004 2004 2005 2005 Uttarkashi Latur Jabalpur Chamoli Orissa Bhuj SE India Assam & Bihar J&K Mah, Guj, HP, Karnataka, TNadu J&K Earthquake Earthquake Earthquake Earthquake Super Cyclone Earthquake Tsunami Floods Avalanche Floods

2005

Earthquakes

1336 56542

1000 64800

Total Losses of Major Disasters only

INDIA
ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO DISASTERS
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 91 - 95 96 - 00
PERIOD

86

Losses in Thousand Crores

54 36
50 % 139 %

'01 - 05

Annual- Impact on People 1. Losses in lives- 4334. 2. People affected- 30 Million. 3. Houses lost - 2.34 Million.

Annual- Financial Losses 1. Percentage of GDP 2%. 2, Percentage of Central Revenue (for relief) 12%.

India is vulnerable to a large number of disasters

Approx. 60% of the landmass is prone to Earthquakes

Approx.12% (About 40 million hectares of land) is prone to flood and river erosion. Approx. 68% of the cultivable area is vulnerable to drought/landslides/avalanches About 5770 km of coastline out of a total 7516 km is prone to Cyclone and Tsunami

Paradigm Shift From the earlier focus primarily on response and relief to mitigation, prevention and preparedness. National Roadmap for DM Primary objective: Mainstreaming of DM into the Development Process. Create a Culture & ethos of Preparedness & Prevention across the country

National Disaster Management Authority The DM Act, 2005 brought into the Authority at National level The Act lays down institutional and coordination mechanisms at the National, State, District and Local levels and provides for establishment of Disaster Response & Mitigation Funds

DISASTER MANAGEMENT CONTINUUM

Disaster Strikes

Disasters offer a unique opportunity to learn where we have gone wrong.

Preparedness and Mitigation of Disasters is the most important part of Disaster Management while strengthening our response capabilities

India and Agriculture

 Population : 1 billion +  GDP from Agriculture : 34 % (1994), around 20% (at present)  Area under Agriculture : 50% (160 mha)  Population under Agriculture :70%  Average farm size : 1 to 5 ha

Impact on Agriculture
 A. B. C. D. E. May alter spatial and temporal demands and supply by impacting: Food Production Stability and sustainability Employment opportunity Profitability Trade

Climate Change Scenarios for India

Year Season Increase in o Temperature, C
Lowest 2020s Rabi Kharif 2050s Rabi Kharif 2080s Rabi Kharif 1.08 0.87 2.54 1.81 4.14 2.91 Highest 1.54 1.12 3.18 2.37 6.31 4.62

Change in Rainfall, %
Lowest -1.95 1.81 -9.22 7.18 -24.83 10.10 Highest 4.36 5.10 3.82 10.52 -4.50 15.18

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India

80 75 70 Production , Mtons 65 60 55 50 45 40 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 2060 2070

Global Climate Change will impact

A. Millennium Development Goal B. Large proportion of people living in extreme poverty in Developing Countries C. Safe drinking water supply, Energy crisis, Health, Agriculture & Livestock production D. Biodiversity E. Climate Change a cross cutting issue

Climate variability and Climate Change

 Increase in CO2  Increase in Temperature  Change in Precipitation  Variability and extreme events such as floods and drought  From India's point of view, a 2C increase would be clearly intolerable  Other developing countries may be even more vulnerable (possibly Bangladesh or Small Island States).

Issues in Climate Change

India should be an active and decisive partner, along with other developing countries. We need to ask:  What concentration levels, along with the associated risks, are acceptable to developing countries?  How could it be ensured that the risks to the developing countries are minimized?

 If countries postpone their commitments to reduce emissions, they use up limited carbon Emission budgets available for future.  How will it be available to the developing countries when they need it for their growth?  How do we ensure that we have a fair share of the global environmental space?

Implications
 The developing countries are particularly vulnerable to the likely increase in the incidence of extreme events.  The impacts of climate change could hinder development and delay progress in eradicating poverty, potentially aggravating socio-economic and environmental conditions in these countries. This may lead to political aberration.

Immediate Concern
The overriding immediate concern for India is to prepare a detailed roadmap. With the threat of climate change, India is called upon to change its energy strategy based on coal, its most abundant resource, and to use other energy sources (e.g. oil, gas, renewable and nuclear energy) instead, which may turn out to be expensive.

The Costs of Changing Energy Strategy

If India has to reduce its carbon emissions, it would mean a major reorientation of her energy strategy. Especially if that warranted a shift from its current coal-based to a oil and gas based energy system.

Past Efforts
Efforts to deal with the situation are ongoing for several decades and are institutionalized in a number of ways through policies, programmes and the creation of specific institutions. These are government efforts; in addition there are a number of measures taken by people themselves.

 Along with other developing countries, India has carried out major economic reforms and removed subsidies. These have resulted in substantial energy savings and reduction in emissions through greater use of energy efficient technology and fuel substitution.  An equitable climate regime will focus on limiting the risks from climate change impacts to poor developing countries rather than on limiting the costs of mitigation per se.

GHG Emissions
India has for quite some time pursued polices to reduce GHG emissions. They are minimizing the energy consumption - particularly oil consumption.

An analysis of Indias emissions reveals that its per capita emission of carbon is one fourth of the global average.

India, and other similar types of developing countries, are making significant progress in limiting GHG emissions through normal policy developments.

 Directly or indirectly these efforts are made by Government as well as by people to reduce energy consumption. These include:  Emphasis on energy conservation.  Promotion of renewable energy sources.  Abatement of air pollution.  Afforestation and wasteland development.  Economic reforms, subsidy removal and joint ventures in capital goods.  Fuel substitution policies.

Agriculture - Adaptation to Climate Change

New Varieties: drought/heat resistant New farm management practices Change in land use Watershed management Agriculture insurance

Summary
 India and other developing countries feel strongly that they are not responsible for the threat of climate change that has been created.  Unsustainable consumption patterns of the rich industrialized nations in the world are responsible for it.  Yet, India and other developing country economies may be highly vulnerable to climate change.

Workable Solution
Thus, an immediate issue is to come up with a effective and efficient management and more freedom to decide: A. Which type of energy we use B. How we generate power C. How to reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions by improved agricultural practices etc. D. India will have to invest heavily in science and technology to combat climate change

Thank You