Common Growth Models and their Applications in Plantation Forestry

Bernard AKOLI & Adewole OLAGOKE

Introduction
y Growth Models generally
Growth modelling processes
Resource Inventory Environmental Databases Experiments & Dynamic inventory Growth Models & Other Decision Aids

refers to a which can and yield under a conditions

system of functions predict the growth of a forest stand wide variety of

Feedback Predictions Tests

y Forest plantations management

require large amount of supporting information which sometimes difficult, if not impossible to measure directly.
FEEDBACK

Prescriptions

FEEDBACK

y Growth models are credible

tools to assist forest managers and researchers to estimate growth variables, essential for decision making

Policy Growth models in decision making, forest management and the formulation of forest policy (after Nix and Gillison 1985).

Classification of Growth and Yield Models

Source: Vanclay (1999)

Description of some models applicable to forest plantation management

y Whole Stand Models
y Growth and Yield Tables y Growth and Yield Equations y Stand Distribution Models

y Size Class Models

y Stand Table Projection y Transition Matrix models y Cohort Models

y Individual Tree Models

y Distance Dependent Models y Distance Independent Models

Growth and Yield Tables

y Describe the forest stand characteristics at varying ages per hectare y Data Source (mainly, Age and Site quality)
y permanent sample plots with optimal management y set of temporary sample plots which describe regular management

y 3 Basic Types
y Normal: assume fully stock density y Empirical: average stocking, more accurate y Variable-density tables: additional variable, Stand Density

Old Concepts

y Ideal conditions for application: constant objectives

Typical Variable-density Yield Table (Knoebel et al, 1986)

Growth and Yield Equations

y no plain distinction between yield tables and equations since equations

can be presented as tables when evaluated

y provide more concise way to express growth and yield relationships y can accommodate more variables y possibility for repeatability in estimation y vary from simple linear regression to a more complex polynomial or

higher order functions

y Limitation: assume a certain management regime throughout the

prediction Typical Growth and Yield Equation E(lnV1) = bO + b1S + b2A1 +b3lnB1

Stand Table Projections

y Forecast future stand table from the present stand data, using

estimated diameter increments for each class y Growth-index ratio controls trees movement in-between during the growth period y Growth-index ratio = diameter growth/ diameter class interval

Transition Matrix Models

y Predict final number of trees using:
y Matrix multiplication of a state vector, comprising the initial tree

density per unit area by diameter classes y Markov matrix, containing probability of movement
y Weakness: competition, mortality and regeneration cannot be

varied.

Cohort Models
y Cohorts represent the groups of trees with unifying characteristics such

as size or species y mean tree growth can be modeled within each group y cohorts are set in deciles or percentiles with boundaries determined by tree distribution within stand y Group identity, the mean size and number of stems is monitored

Individual Tree Models

y Simulation by growing characteristics of

individual tree y aggregating the trees to give estimates of stand growth and yield y Classified into 2 classes: y Distance dependent models (DDM) y Distance independent models (DIM)
y DDM use data on inter-tree distance, and individual tree diameter, height

or crown class to calculate a competition index (CI) y Use CI to determine which trees live or die, and the growth
y DIM works similarly, but requires no information on spatial positions of trees

(expensive and sparsely available coordinates)

Common application of growth models in plantation forestry

y Yield prediction : Needed for planning purposes and calculation of costs and

profits.
y Health monitoring: Can provide predictions on the specific critical time of the

damage caused by fires, insect pests and diseases so that prevention methods can effectively be applied.
y Long term productivity monitoring: Provides a mechanism of identifying

changes and options for improvement in site quality for a long term higher productivity.
y Socio economic analysis of Management Options:

Aid decisions of sustainable harvesting quota (the quantity of products to harvest without inducing a negative response on the production potential of the forest ecosystem).
y Produce projections of potential supply of a particular products based on a more

y Marketing of products:

detailed information about area, species, yield and plantation age structure,
y and to examine periods to expect higher demand for product so that harvest can be

directed at that time for profit maximization.

Selected Readings
y Avery, T.E. and Burkhart, H.E. (2002). Forest Measurements (5th y y

Edition). NewYork: McGraw-Hill. 456 p. Husch B, Beers T.W. and Kershaw J.A., Jr. (2003). Forest Mensuration. (4th Edition). New York: Wiley 456p. Nix, H.A. and Gillison, A.N. (1985). Towards an operational framework for habitat and wildlife management. In J. Kikkawa (ed.) Wildlife Management in the Forests and Forestry-controlled Lands in the Tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Proc. Workshop, Univ. of Qld, 1618 July 1984, p. 3955. Subasinge, S.M.C.U.P (2008). Growth models and their use in plantation forestry. Originally published in the Silver Jubilee Proceedings of the Department of Forestry and Environmental Science, University of Sri Jayewardenepura ( Dec. 2008) Vanclay, J.K. (1995). Growth models for tropical forests: a synthesis of models and methods. For. Sci. 41 (1), 742.