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V S Arunachalam Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, Bangalore, INDIA & Department of Engineering & Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA
Y e ar
700,000
Serious Growth after 60s Generation 6th largest in world Per capita consumption low Close to 95% villages electrified
(Projected)
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
The Status
Installed Capacity > 120 GW Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh Coal dominant energy source (58%)
Diesel 1196 Coal 67166 Hydro 30135 Wind 2488 Nuclear 2720
Gas 11840
Source: Groningen Growth and Development Center Total Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.
Growth Areas
Present growth is skills or resource driven (exports: software, gems and jewels, garment manufacture) Future Growth will have to be on value addition & engineering Rural sector to play a major role (agricultural and dairy produce; minimizing wastage and improving efficiency) Infrastructure building (roads, buildings, railroads etc.,) Manufacturing
Elasticity of electricity with GDP stabilizing at ~ 1.2 Implications for future electric power requirements by 2015: Capacity addition Investments Fuel mix Pricing and Policies T&D reforms
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
2007
2008
2009
G D P G ro w th R a te 0 .0 5 0 .0 6 0 .0 7
2010 2011 Y e ar 0 .0 8 0 .0 9 0 .1
2012
2013
2014
2015
G D P G r o w th R a te 0 .0 5 0 .0 6 0 .0 7
Required for 8% economic growth by 2015: Installed Capacity 250 GW Generation 1500 billion kWh Per Capita Consumption 1000 kWh
10000
5000
0
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Present
In 2015 ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Wind
On-shore Off-shore
Biomass Solar
Photo voltaic Concentrating Solar Power
250,000 MW
King Coal !
Reserves Proven 91 billion Tons Indicated 116 billion Tons Inferred 37 billion Tons TOTAL 245 billion Tons Coal reserves: > 250 years at present levels of consumption Concentrated in Eastern India
Others 13%
Madhya Pradesh 7%
Jharkhand 29%
Chattisgarh 16%
Orissa 24%
Low energy content CO2 emissions > 1 kg per kWh Issues with coal:
Ash disposal: annual ash generation > 90 million tons CO2 emissions
Wyodak
11,960
5.97
0.40
WPC Utah
11,240
5.32
0.61
Indian Coal
6,500
25-45
<0.5
High growth : 580 MT BAU scenario : 380 MT Domestic production will not be enough. Imports needed
600
500
200
Issues:
Ash generation > 200 million Tons CO2 emissions > 850 Million Tons Particulate and NOx emissions (presently not regulated) Coal transportation bottleneck: Rail transportation stagnation
100
0 1998 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
C hina
1985
1 990
1 995
2000
2005
India and China presently not subject to mandatory cuts in CO2 However future may not be so
The question is: How much do we want to add with coal given the constraints of quality, transportation, carbon emissions and environmental issues.
Installed Capacity of Coal (GW) Coal Required (Million MT) 580 MMT CO2 Emissions (Million MT) 850 MMT
Upper Case
Coal still contributes 60% of capacity Aggressive deployment of nuclear and natural gas technologies
~ 150 GW
Lower Case
~ 120 GW
470 MMT
690 MMT
Hydro-Electricity
Inferred potential > 120 GW Installed capacity 30 GW Most big projects are in NorthEastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttaranchal and J&K Problems of rehabilitation and resettlement with large projects Environmental issues Water sharing agreements with neighbors
National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India
Hydro-Electric Potential
Details of projects under construction Ongoing and Planned Projects
Projects awaiting clearance and government approval Projects at DPR and infrastructure development stage Projects under survey and investigation 2,570 MW
Dulhasti Dhauliganga Stage - I * J&K Uttaranchal Sikkim Manipur Himachal Pradesh J&K Arunachal Pradesh West Bengal Madhya Pradesh State Capacity (MW) 390 140 510 90 800 120 2000 132 520 4702
11,620 MW
11,000 MW
TOTAL
Natural Gas
Fastest growing primary fuel, worldwide Indian statistics (2004-05):
Consumption: > 31 BCM/year Primary uses: Power 41% Fertilizer 32% Sponge Iron 4% Other 23% Growing needs for transportation (and some cooking) Latent demand estimated as high as 80 BCM (depends on price, of course)
Turkmenistan
1 1
Afghanistan
Iran
Multan
Pakistan
2 2 4 4
Qatar
Gwadar
Karachi
Indore Indore
3 3
India
Baroda
Oman
Imports of Gas
LNG growing (5+ million tons/annum), but prices remain high
1 ton LNG can power ~ 1 GW of power 1 BCM gas ~ .8 GW of power thus, 20 BCM ~ 16,000 MW of gas power
Biomass
India predominantly agricultural country. Annual production of agro-forest and processing residues: 350 million tons Power generation potential > 22,000 MW Advantages:
Feedstock Agro-forest residues Examples Potential Installed 50 MW
Wood chips, 17,000 MW mulberry, coconut shells Rice husk, sugarcane bagasse 5,000 MW
Decentralized generation: close to rural residues load centers. Technology reasonably well developed Environmentally friendly: No net CO2 emissions
Processing
1000 MW
Wind Energy
World Wind Installed Capacity (2005)
1 ,0 0 8 0
Technical potential
: 45,000 MW : 13,000 MW
Gross potential
1 ,0 0 6 0 1 ,0 0 4 0 1 ,0 0 2 0 1 ,0 0 0 0 8 0 ,0 0 6 0 ,0 0 4 0 ,0 0 2 0 ,0 0
Netherlands Germany Denmark Spain Japan India Italy UK US
China
Rapid growth in installed capacity from 1990s India ranks 5th in the world
Denmark
In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2) in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2) and US
US
Europe and US have taken up several off-shore projects. Wind speeds higher Distance from shore in some cases ~ 30 40 km !
a t h y m
D D
e t r y
o f
( K m
I n d
)
2 4 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 8 0 0 6 0 0 4 0 0 2 0 0
i s t a n c e e p t h ( m
2 0 04 0 06 0 08 0 1 0 01 02 01 04 01 06 01 08 02 00 02 02 02 04 0 0 0
e t r e s )
D is ta n c e (K m )
1 6 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 8 0 0 6 0 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 2 0 04 0 06 0 08 0 1 0 01 02 01 04 01 06 01 08 02 00 02 02 02 04 0 0 0
i s t a n c e
( K
D is ta n c e (K m )
8000
4000
2000
0
1969 1973 1981 1984 1986 1991 1992 1993 1995 2000 2005 2006 2015
Why Cooperate?
India needs electric power now, more than ever, for human development and growth It must generate power from all energy sources Excessive and continued dependence on coal contributes to environmental degradation & global warming Limitations of renewable energy sources
Why Cooperate?
Politics of Non-Proliferation: Power & Responsibility R&D: cooperation and Collaboration Bilateral trade & economic issues Sharing global energy resources Environmental concerns Shared vision: secular, democratic & caring society
Why Cooperate?
Climate change is a greater threat to humanity than terrorism, and no less urgent. ---David King, Science Advisor to Prime
Minister of UK
An Action Plan
Until Nuclear Fusion and Hydrogen technologies mature Minimizing wastage; energy conservation; Development of Energy Plan Installation of nuclear power ( 34GW in 10 years) Investments in R&D to make renewable technologies efficient, sustainable &affordable
An Action Plan
Strict enforcement of export controls of technologies, equipment and services Nuclear power reactors under international safeguards Collaboration in developing technologies for utilizing MOX fuels for electric power generation Participation in Gen. 4 R&D initiatives
Nuclear 14.60%
Coal 60.44%
Coal 50.90%
Diesel 0.48%
Gas 14.49%
Reduction in annual coal consumption ~ 100 Million Tons Reduction in annual CO2 Emissions > 170 Million Tons
~ Total present CO2 emissions of Netherlands !
What If.
India & China Were Developedby 2013?
Present Electricity Per Capita (kWh) Global Carbon Emissions (Million Tons per Year)
5000
US India China
2002 2013
4000
Target: 14,000 kWh by 2013 Expected Carbon Emission: 14,400 Million Tons (2.5 times present global emissions !!) CO2 concentration > 400 ppm Temperature rise > 0.5 C
(Calculations Based on Data in Climate Change 2001, IPCC)
3000
2000
1000
US India China
> 750 4 8
Million Barrels per Day
160
2003 2013
120
Target: 250 Cars per 1000 World Oil Consumption: 387 Million Barrels a Day
At Present 77 Million Barrels a Day
80
40