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Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
1. Review Problems 2. Multiple Cash Flows: Computing FV, PV, IR, n 3. Valuing Annuities & Perpetuities 4. Interest Rates: APR and EAR
Review Problem #2
The production manager estimates he will be producing 500,000 units in year 2020. He bases this on the fact that he estimates his production will increase 7% per year. How many units did he produce in 2002?
Future Value with Multiple Cash Flows: There are two ways to calculate future values of multiple cash flows: 1. Compound the accumulated balance forward one period at a time, or 2. Calculate the future value of each cash flow and add them up. **
Present Value of Multiple Cash Flows: There are two ways to calculate present values of multiple cash flows: 1. Discount the last amount back one period and add them up as you go, or 2. discount each amount to time 0 and then add them all up.**
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Example: If you are willing to make 36 monthly payments of $100 at 1.5% per period, what size loan (APV) can you obtain? APV = C * [(1 - [1/(1 + r)t ])/r]. C = $100 ; t = 36; r = 1.5% APV = 100 * [(1-[1/(1+.015)36])/.015] = 100*[(1[1/1.70914])/.015] = 100 * (.4149/.015) = 100 * 27.66 = $2766 Using this formula gets a bit hairy and its easy to make a mistake.
It is much easier to just use the calculator: Using your calculator: N=36; -$100 = PMT; 1.5 = Interest rate; Compute PV $2766.07 (after you adjust for sign convention)
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Example: If you borrow $400, promising to repay in 4 monthly installments at 1% a month, how much are your payments?
APV = C * [(1 - [1/(1 + r)t ])/r]. $400 = C (1 - [1/(1.01)4])/.01 $400 = C 3.90196, so C = $400/3.90196 C = $102.51.
Or the easy way on the calculator: PMT = ? ; Interest rate = 1%; PV = 400; t or n = 4; Compute PMT $102.51
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Example: A finance company offers to loan you $1,000 today if you will make 48 monthly payments of $32.60. What rate is implicit in the loan? Answer:
1. $1000 today ; 48 payments of $32.60. 2. PV = 1000; N = 48; PMT = -32.60 3. Compute interest rate 2.000%
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Summary of Annuities
Fixed Payment for a set time period, not forever like a perpetuity. You know 3 of 4 things and have to figure out the fourth. You also have to decide if you are dealing with PV or FV. Use your calculator to solve. No good method to check other that testing by plugging in your answer and 2 of the other variables to confirm that you get the other one.
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Perpetuity present value: PPV= C/r, since PPV r must give payment, C.
Preferred stock is an important example of a perpetuity.
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Answer #1
Price of common stock has no impact on preferred stock; I often will give you extraneous info, which you should ignore. PPV = C/r PPV = 100/.08 =1250
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Answer #2
Price of common stock has no impact on preferred stock; I often will give you extraneous info, which you should ignore. PPV = C/r 95 = 6.75/r r = 6.75/95 = .071 = 7.1%
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Annuity Due: The difference between Annuity Due cash flows and Ordinary Annuity cash flows is that the Annuity Due cash flows are always made or received at the beginning of each period.
3 ways to solve for the PV or FV of an annuity due. 1. The first method is to use a special annuity key on a financial calculator, and then provide the same inputs as for an ordinary annuity. This is the method I do not recommend as it involves changing calculator settings. 2. The second method called multiplying by the base. To multiply by the base, first solve the entire problem as if it were an ordinary annuity, and then multiply the solution by (1+r). 3. The third method** recognizes that an Annuity Due is somewhat of a silly concept in that you pay PV for the annuity and then immediately get the first payment back; so its value = the value of Ordinary Annuity (in arrears) for n-1 payments + the value of the payment up front. In other words, the value of 10 payments of $50 Annuity Due = the value of 9 payments of $50 Ordinary Annuity + $50
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Example:
You are leasing an SUV for 36 months at $400 per month, payable on the first day of each month. If the appropriate interest rate is 0.5% per month, what is the present value of this lease to the finance company? Lets try this 2 ways. First, do it by solving for a regular annuity and then multiplying by (1+r). Second, do it by reducing N by 1, solving for PV and then adding 1 payment to the Calculated PV. 37
Multiplication by the base, first set up a financial calculator solution for an ordinary annuity solution: 36 N, -400 PMT, .5 I/Y. Then compute PV $13,148.41. Multiply this by 1.005 (which is 1+r) $13,214.15 Reduce N by 1: 35 = N; -400 = PMT; .5 = interest rate; Compute PV $12,814.15; add $400 $13,214.15 THIS IS THE WAY I LIKE.
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Stated or quoted interest rate - rate before considering any compounding effects, such as 10% compounded quarterly. This is the APR (Annual Percentage Rate). It is also called the nominal interest rate. Effective annual interest rate (EAR) - rate, on an annual basis, that reflects compounding effects, e.g., 10% compounded quarterly is effective rate of 10.38% = (1.025)4 - 1.
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Compounding period
Effective annual rate 10.00000% 10.38129 10.47131 10.50648 10.51558 10.51703 10.51709
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 1999
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Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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Example:
What is the present value of $100 in two years at 10% compounded quarterly? What is the EAR? We need to figure out the rate at each period being compounded. 10% compounded quarterly = 10%/4 each quarter = 2.5% each quarter. There are 8 quarters in 2 years, so we are compounding 8 times. PV = FV/(1+r)t PV = 100/(1+.025)8 PV = $82.07. EAR is an annual rate. EAR = (1.025)4 -1 = .1038 or 10.38% Remember EAR is an annual rate. 43
Another Example
15% interest rate compounded monthly for 3 years. If we start with $200, what do we end with? What is the EAR?
For problems: Use the EAR rate & the # of years; or Use the APR/m & the appropriate # of periods (m * # of years); Use the yx key.
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Another Example
15% APR interest rate compounded monthly for 3 years. If we start with $200, what do we end with? What is the EAR? We are compounding monthly, so the monthly rate is 15%/12 = 1.25%. FV = PV (1+r)t FV = $200 (1.0125)36 = 200(1.5639) = $312.79 EAR = 1.012512 -1 = 16.1%
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Annual Percentage Rate (APR) = simply the rate per period number of periods per year, making it a quoted or stated rate. APR is the rate quoted in most leases, mortgages, etc. Why is that? (EAR is normally not quoted on these.) However, it understates the effective rate if there is more than 1 period per year. Conversely, most investments quote both EAR and APR. Why? 46
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Interest-Only Loans: Borrower pays interest only each period and entire principal at maturity. Example: A typical corporate bond
Amortized Loans: Principal and interest are paid together in payments. Example: A typical/conventional mortgage on a house 53
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Amortized Loans
Borrower repays part or all of the principal over the life of the loan. Two methods are: 1) fixed amount of principal to be repaid each period, which results in uneven payments, and 2) fixed payment (i.e., an annuity), which results in uneven principal reduction. (Interest decreases and principal increases as the loan amortizes or is paid down with each payment.)
A traditional automobile loan or fixed-rate home mortgage. These normally have a fixed payment per month (with increasing principal and decreasing interest but the same total payment.) Solving for these is solving for an annuity.
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