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STAT 505
Why Probability?
Probability is the study of chance. Historically probability was
studied to help the wealthy class win gambling games.
However today it has many uses.
If the mean score is 75 - this is the average score for the class.
The branch of statistics that deals with population data you
dealt with chapter 1 and it is called descriptive statistics.
However suppose I want the average height of an adult male.
It is impossible to get the data for all adult males so what we
do is construct a sample!
Probability Experiments
Example:
Rolling a die and observing the number that is rolled is a
probability experiment.
The result of a single trial in a probability experiment is the
outcome.
The set of all possible outcomes for an experiment is the sample
space.
Example:
The sample space when rolling a die has six outcomes.
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Events
An event consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset of the sample
space.
Events are
represented by
Example: uppercase letters.
A die is rolled. Event A is rolling an even number.
Example:
A die is rolled. Find the probability of Event A: rolling a 5.
1
P(A) = 0.167
“Probability of 6
Event A.”
Empirical Probability
Empirical (or statistical) probability is based on observations
obtained from probability experiments. The empirical frequency of
an event E is the relative frequency of event E.
Frequency of Event E
P (E )
Total frequency
f
n
Example:
A travel agent determines that in every 50 reservations she makes, 12
will be for a cruise. What is the probability that the next reservation she
makes will be for a cruise?
12
P(cruise) = 0.24
50
RANDOM VARIABLES
Telephone Surveys
Mail Surveys
Email Surveys
Scanning Questionnaires
Question Types
- multiple choice, numeric open end and text open
end