Population Reports

Meeting the Urban

Challenge
Prepared by:
Don Hinrichsen
Ruwaida M. Salem, MPH
Richard Blackburn, MS
Series M, Number 16
Fall 2002
Related Materials Online:
Meeting the Urban Challenge:
www.populationreports.org/m16edsum.shtml
Questions & Answers:
www.populationreports.org/q&as/m16/
Quiz:
www.populationreports.org/prquiz/urban_intr
o.shtml
Population Reports
 Overview
• Urban Population Trends
• Urban Poor
• Urban Pollution and Health
• Impact on the Environment
• Making Urban Areas Work

Population Reports
URBAN POPULATION
TRENDS

Population Reports
 An Urban Future
• In 2007: half of world’s population will be
urban (about 3.2 billion people)
• Developed world & Latin America:
– About 75% of population lives in urban
areas
– By 2030 84% will live in urban areas
• Developing world:
– 40% of the population lives in urban areas
– By 2030 56% will live in urban areas
Population Reports
 Urban Growth Most Rapid
in Developing Countries
Estimated and Projected Urban and Rural Populations
of Developing and Developed Countries, 1950-2030
4.5

4.0
Population (in Billions)

Developing Countries - Urban

Developing Countries - Rural
3.5
Developed Countries - Urban
3.0 Developed Countries - Rural
2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
1950 1975 2000 2015 2030

Year Population Reports

Source: United Nations (2002)
 Growing Number of Big Cities
Size of City 2000 2015
Million cities 388 554
Developing 27 426
Developed 114 128
4
Megacities 17 21
Developing 13 17
Developed 4 4

Source: United Nations (2002) Population Reports

 Population Distribution of Developing and Developed
Countries by Size of Urban Area and Year

1975 2000 2015

1600
1600
Population (in Millions)

1400
1400
Developing Countries Developed Countries
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0
<0.5 0.5-1 1-5 5-10 >10 <0.5 0.5-1 1-5 5-10 >10
Size of Urban Area (in Millions)

Source: United Nations (2002) Population Reports

 Explaining Urban Growth
• Migration from rural and other urban areas
– more prominent during initial phases of
urbanization
• Natural population increase
– more prominent during later phases of
urbanization
• Reclassification of rural areas to urban

Population Reports
THE URBAN POOR

Population Reports
 Urban Poverty Statistics
• Conservative estimates from the World
Bank:
– 30% of poor people live in urban areas
– By 2020 40% will live in urban areas
– By 2035 50% will live in urban areas

Population Reports
More World Bank Estimates
• 1988: 330 million urban poor in developing
world were living on <$1/day

• 2000: 495 million urban poor in developing

world were living on <$1/day

Population Reports
 Insufficient Incomes
• Unemployment levels relatively low in
urban areas
• Shift from formal sector employment to
informal labor market
– Low status
– Low wages
– Long hours
– Unsafe work conditions

Population Reports
Informal Labor Market

Population Reports
 Inadequate Housing and
Services
• Over 1 billion urban residents worldwide live
in inadequate housing
• Slum residents usually lack security of tenure
• Legal housing is scarce and too expensive
• Urban poor usually pay more for services of
inferior quality

Population Reports
 Infant Mortality Rates by Residence and Access
to Piped Water, Selected Countries, 1990-1994
Urban with Piped Water Urban without Piped Water Rural
160
Infant Mortality Rate

140
120 Africa
100
80
60
40
20
0
o

r
ca
n

l
s

ga
co

ia

a
na

ia
oo
Fa

er

bi
ny

as

ib

er
oc

ne
ig
ha
er

m
am
Ke
na

ag

ig
N
or

Se
am

Za
G

N
i

ad

N
M
rk

C
Bu

160 160
Infant Mortality Rate

Infant Mortality Rate

140 140
120 Asia 120 Latin America & Caribbean
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
Indonesia Pakistan Philippines Turkey Colombia Dominican Rep. Peru

Source: Bicego (1996) Population Reports

Pollution and Health

Population Reports
 Water and Sanitation
• Urbanization can increase per capita use of
freshwater
• WHO and UNICEF: Number of urban
residents without access to improved water
rose from 113 million in 1990 to 173 million in
2000
• 1/3 of urban water supplies
in Africa and Latin America
and 1/2 in Asia operate
intermittently
Population Reports
 Water-Related Diseases
• Worldwide, about 2.3 billion people suffer
from water-related diseases
• Nearly half of urban residents in Africa, Asia,
and Latin America suffer from one or more of
the main diseases
• Diarrheal diseases are responsible for 90% of
health problems
• Estimated 4 billion cases/year, causing 3-4
million deaths

Population Reports
 Outdoor Air Pollution
• Latin American cities struggle with high
suspended particulate matter & ozone levels
• Asian cities face similar problems, with rapid
growth of cities, more fuel use & more vehicles
• Developed countries have strict environmental
standards, but energy consumption is greater
& pollution levels often exceed standards

Population Reports
 Outdoor Air Pollution
• WHO estimates that 1.5 billion urban dwellers
face pollution levels that exceed
recommended levels
• In Asia, 1.5 million people die every year from
pollution related diseases
• In the US particulate pollution causes one-
fifth of all lung cancers
• Worldwide health costs of urban air pollution
are estimated at $1 billion a year

Population Reports
 Indoor Air Pollution
• A particular problem in rural areas; however,
millions of urban poor also suffer
• Estimates suggest that urban indoor air
pollution kills about 600,000 annually
• Worldwide, 3 billion people rely on biomass
fuels for household cooking & heating
• These fuels emit large amounts of smoke,
directly inside dwelling without ventilation

Population Reports
 Indoor Air Pollution
• Urban poor often cannot afford cleaner fuels
• Women and children suffer the most
• Cleaning up indoor air is also a
compelling public health need
• A number of technical, behavioral
and policy approaches could help

Population Reports
Impact on the
Environment

Population Reports
 Urban Environment
• Rapid urbanization can create stress on the
natural environment
• Urban areas take up 2% of the earth’s
surface, but account for 75% of industrial
wood use
• 60% of water for human use goes to urban
areas
• Per capita resource consumption, water & air
pollution, and soil degradation &
contamination have increased
Population Reports
 Urban Expansion
• Unplanned & unregulated urban development
leads to haphazard expansion & worsening
urban living conditions
• Industrial development takes place without
concern for environment
• Economic growth can contribute to urban
environmental problems
• Burden of urban environmental problems falls
disproportionately on the poor

Population Reports
Heavy Ecological Footprints
• “Ecological footprint” of urban areas weighs
heavily on the natural environment
• Ecological footprint of humankind should be
1.7 hectares of land per capita
• Ecological footprint is 2.3 hectares
• In the past 25 years consumption levels in
industrialized countries has increased
consistently at 2.3% per year
• In developing countries, per capita
consumption has increased, and resource use
has soared
Population Reports
MAKING URBAN
AREAS WORK

Population Reports
 Better Urban Governance
• Definition: Organization of & relationships
between political & administrative institutions
+ the relationships among government,
private institutions & civil society
• Consensus: National governments should
play the role of enabler; local governments
should have more control over the planning &
management of local affairs

Population Reports
 Decentralization
• Devolve budget authority from national and
state governments to municipal level
• Increase administrative capacity of local
governments
• Ensure an inclusive process (community
participation)

Population Reports
 Case Study:
Porto Alegre, Brazil
• 1989: participatory budget process
• Each year citizens participate in 2 meetings
• Citizens rank their top 5 priority needs from a
list of 14
• Local government revises regional plans and
budget allocations based on this list
• Conditions for the poor have improved; In 7
years:
– Households with access to water: 80% → 98%
– Access to sewerage: 46% → 85%

Population Reports
 Improving the Lives of the
Urban Poor
• Millenium Summit 2000 Goal: Improve lives
of at least 100 million slum dwellers by 2020
• But number of slum dwellers is projected to
reach 1.5 billion by 2020

Population Reports
 Role of Local Governments
• Implement “pro-poor” social and economic
policies
• Provide housing and basic services
• Provide access to land and credit for the
urban poor
• Extend security of land and housing tenure

Population Reports
 Role of Communities
• Organize and work together to increase
negotiating power with government
– Example: community savings and loan
groups
• Community groups can often provide
cheaper housing and services
– Example: Philippines Homeless Peoples’
Federation

Population Reports
 Role of Donors
• Long-term approach that emphasizes
institution-building
• Increase funding to nongovernmental
organizations when government structures
are weak
• Work through local partners

Population Reports
 Improving Water and
Sanitation
• With community participation, municipal
governments can improve water supplies &
sanitation
• Saving water is more effective than finding
new sources of water
• Fix leaky valves & water mains
and cut back on illegal taps
• Pricing water
• Widespread use of on-site
and off-site technologies
Population Reports
 Curbing Air Pollution
• WHO estimates: bringing suspended
particulate matter in cities in developing
countries down to safe levels could save
300,000 to 700,000 lives annually
• More effective transport systems
• More land for parks and green areas

Population Reports
 Recycling Wastes
• Recycling urban waste into new resources
• Some countries have gone beyond recovery
and recycling by promoting “industrial
symbiosis”
• In many poor countries unable to afford high-
tech solutions, armies of “rag pickers” sort
through garbage for items they can resell or
recycle

Population Reports
 A Way Forward
• Better governance; integrated coordination at
the national, provincial & local levels
• National governments play role of the
enabler; local governments have more direct
control over urban areas
• Public participation led by local community
members to enhance decision-making
• Donor agencies re-evaluating the nature of
development assistance
• Reallocate resources to focus on institutional
capacity
Population Reports
 References
• Bicego, G. and Ahmad, O.B. Infant and child
mortality. Calverton, Maryland, Macro
International, Aug. 1996 (Demographic and
Health Surveys Comparative Studies No. 20)
58 p.
• United Nations (UN). Population Division.
World urbanization prospects: The 2001
revision. New York, UN, Mar. 20, 2002. 182
p.

Population Reports
 Photo Credits
• Slide 1: Liz Gilbert/David and Lucile Packard
Foundation
• Slide 9: Antje Becker-Benton
• Slide 13: Liz Gilbert/David and Lucile Packard
Foundation
• Slide 16: Malea Hoepf
• Slide 17: CEDPA/Nepal
• Slide 22: Nigel Bruce
• Slide 31: D. Hinrichsen
• Slide 35: Sara A. Holtz/Peace Corps

Population Reports
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Population Reports