CFMU User Forum 09

European ATM Network Perspective 2010-2015

Joe Sultana, Deputy Director CFMU

The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

Forecast Traffic Evolution 2010 - 2015

Latest Baseline forecasts +2% in 2010; +3.5% in 2011; +2.7% p.a. for 2012 2015
5 5 5% 5

IFR traffic in Europe

Flights in Europe (Million) 5 5

5 5 - 5 5historical figures 5 55 5 1 1 - 1 1forecast 1 11 1

Actual Traffic

Long-Term Trend

5% 5 5% 5

Forecast Traffic

5% 5 5% 5

Annual Growth

Long-Term Average Growth

5 % 5 % -5 % Annual Growth

11 11 55 55 11 11 55 55 11 11 55 55 CFMU -5 User Forum 2009

55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55

55 55 55 55

2% -55

Since CFMU Users Day 2008

Crisis in aviation industry hitting AOs, ANSPs Network performance reasonable, given traffic downturn SES II comes into force SESAR activities launched ATFM Implementing Role adopted New concept for Europe: Free Route airspace operations introduced in 2 FIRs + Ireland to implement in December

CFMU User Forum 2009

Perceived Changes in Focus of Aircraft Operators and ANSPs

AOs Survival is main focus of many aircraft operators Flight Efficiency is the latest buzz word but responds to AOs flight ops department objectives Emissions trading scheme closer to introduction

ANSPs Non-essential ANSP investments slowed/stopped ANSPs less likely to buy capacity thro overtime Staff recruitment to alleviate shortages maintained

CFMU User Forum 2009

Changes in focus for CFMU

Performance of day-to-day operations to be re-enforced thro reorganisation of CFMU Current Ops (completed March 2010) Continuous monitoring of demand/capacity picture shared with local ANSPS and airports Delays not anymore only performance driver of CFMU Flight efficiency/emissions performance indicators will dominate political agenda ATFCM is one part of network operations cycle Airspace design, airspace management and airspace utilisation must be one linked operation and measured as such Consideration of time as ATFM tool in 4-D business trajectories
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European Regulation on ATFM

Adopted by Single Sky Committee 3 December 2009 Comes into force 18 months after publication in Official Journal Defines the roles and responsibilities of the actors: EU Members States. Central Unit for ATFM. ATS Services. Aircraft Operators. Airport Operators.
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Highlights of ATFM Regulation

Seeks to optimise available capacity of EATMN and enhancing ATFM processes Re-enforces and builds upon ICAO ATFM principles and provision Clarifies the relationship with the airport slot process Monitoring of Compliance of ATFM slot, missing/multiple FPLs Performance assessment of causes, impact and adherence of ATFM measures

CFMU User Forum 2009

Single European Sky 2

Single European Sky has added a political dimension to the technical drive to improve and update Europes Air Traffic Management system SES 2 comes after a review of progress of initial SES regulation Four pilllars Network manager Performance targets decided Network-wide, delivered locally and regionally Management of scarce resources capacity, SSR codes, R/T frequencies Drive for quicker FABs implementation
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SES Performance Targets

SES Key performance areas Capacity Environment Cost efficiency Safety

NM function to advise the PRB from an independent network perspective on the operational optimisation of the European ANS network (Capacity, Flight Efficiency)

First Community targets for period 2012-2014 Apportionment of Community targets among States/FABs. Subsequent target periods - 5years

CFMU User Forum 2009

Capacity Performance and ATM

Strategic objective for SES capacity performance framework is: To provide sufficient capacity to accommodate the demand in typical busy hour periods without imposing significant operational, economic or environmental penalties under normal circumstances NMD and ANSPs to match capacity with demand, both in the planning phase and in the tactical phase (en-route ATFCM). The capacity proposed KPI is the percentage of IFR flights delayed by more than 15 minutes due to en-route ATFM delays (all delay causes).
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Environment and ATM

Environment Package addressed aircraft noise gaseous emissions local air quality greenhouse gases Large communality between reducing emissions and airspace user requirement to minimise fuel burn Flight efficiency is best measured network-wide; Horizontal flight efficiency will be basis for KPI in first performance period NMD to draw up a European Route Network Improvement Plan including vertical flight efficiency, terminal/airport operations in second performance period
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CFMU User Forum 2009

Network Approach
Some of the areas benefiting from a European network approach: Airspace and Route design Initial Flight Plan processing Common reference for airspace infrastructure Data sharing Management of SSR codes Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management Flight Efficiency Airports interface Needs a coordinating function to deliver results The SES Network Manager
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Network Manager High-level Objective

The Network Manager will, in an operational partnership with clear roles and responsibilities, support ANSPs to deliver their local and FAB targets and deliver network performance targets with the support of ANSPS.

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Network Manager and ANSPs together

Prepare rolling Network Operations Plan Creating needed capacity Exploiting available capacity Provide opportunities for user preferred flight profiles Monitor network performance on day of operations, minimising impact of capacity/demand imbalances Look at deficiencies across network Capacity Infrastructure - Airspace, CNS, ATS systems Gate-to-gate Inter ANSPs/FAB interfaces Plan, coordinate, deploy remedial actions, new technologies, SESAR deliverables
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Network Manager Timescales

Key dates from European Commission SES II (draft) Road Map Mid 2010 - performance targets End 2010 - network manager designation End 2012 - FABs establishment

EUROCONTROL re-organisation in 2010 to be able to receive NM designation addressing both network operations planning and management Support and coordination of operational/technical deployments of ATM/CNS improvement enablers

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Overcoming European ATM Network Constraints

Persistent Demand Capacity imbalances require two parallel solutions Operational ATFCM measures Accurate demand and capacity availability data Network-wide coordinated approach Strategic network capacity improvements incl Airspace Network design, Airspace management operational procedures, Network technical enablers

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Flight Efficiency - European Network Perspective Enabled by DMEAN

Design into network Best possible airspace structure (enroute & TMAs)

Dynamic management of restrictions/airspace for maximum exploitation

Enable with coordinated processes

Remove constraining procedures

Ensure least possible number/duration of airspace utilisation restrictions

Efficient Air Traffic Management and airport operations on the day

Apply across network

Post Ops Analysis

Evaluate results network-wide

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CFMU Ops Room Changes - Jan 2010

Major changes to organisation and internal procedures Current Operations Managers 0600hrs 2200hrs Post Ops manager and systematic analysis process Flight Efficiency Support position 2 additional Aircraft Operator Liaison officers Military Liaison Officers Airspace data RAD /AIRAC management Live Updates Flight Efficiency Training and Awareness Ops staff participation in development projects

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A Plan for Continuous Improvements

Short term > 2011 Dynamic Management of the European Airspace Network (DMEAN) Flight Efficiency Plan Medium term >2013 FABs Network Manager First deliverables from SESAR

Long term < 2013 SESAR deliverables

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Linking CDM airport with Network Objectives & Benefits To share dynamic traffic information with the network
Accurate departure estimates enable better demand calculation Improved demand calculation results in flow and capacity management Enhance ATFM slot compliance / reduce number of wasted slots

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Results of A-CDM Implementation

27 airports have commenced A-CDM 20 airports have committed to A-CDM 16 airports are implementing or partially implemented A-CDM 3 airports have implemented A-CDM locally
OSL ARN MAN LHR

HEL

DUB

AMS HAM BRU DUS BBI PRA FRA CDG VIE MUC ZRH MXP LYS GVA FCO

WAW BUD IST ATH HER

21

LIS MAD
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BCN PMI

AYT

Potential Reduction in Network Performance

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Looking Ahead 2010 - 2012

Various ATS System upgrades 2010-2012 will bring capacity improvements once implemented Pre-implementation phase will have significant impact, requiring network planning/preparation to mitigate resulting capacity shortfalls South East Axis bottleneck points flows managed to overcome

Quick wins from prospective FABs, including managed civil/military solutions to exploit all airspace/CDRs Local/regional improvements complemented network operational partnership approach Need to stay ahead of the capacity delay curve
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by

Looking Ahead 2013-2015

First Performance framework in force Widespread Free Route, at least in upper airspace ? 100 airports linked to network through Airport CDM ? Specific traffic management procedures between major European airport hubs ?

Updated Airspace situation available real time?

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Conclusion
Challenging times awaiting SESAR Traffic will return pressure on operating costs will be even greater Changing, stronger institutional structures Network manager role is about performance Not to police but to work with ANSPs to deliver what airspace users need CFMU will evolve into an integral part of the network operations management part of NM Working with ANSPs to deliver what airspace users need less delays, more flight efficiency
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CFMU User Forum 2009