Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Stock Markets
Most everyone follows the stock markets Daily news media commonly report the daily value and the change in U.S. market indicator series such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Down Jones Transportation Average and the NASDAQ Composite. In Canada we commonly hear about the TSE (Toronto Stock Exchange) 300 Composite Index and the CDNX (Canadian Venture Exchange) But what are these measures? How are they conceived? What do they measure? How can we use them?
2
For example the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is an average of 30 large blue-chip stocks traded on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) The TSE (Toronto Stock Exchange) 300 is a composite index made of the the 300 largest value-weighted stocks publicly traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange
3
DJIA
Companies included in the average are those selected by Dow Jones & Company, publisher of the Wall Street Journal The composition of the average changes over time as companies are dropped because of a merger or bankruptcy has occurred, because a companys trading activity is low, or because a company not in the average becomes very prominent. When a company is replaced by another company, the average is readjusted in such a way as to provide comparability with earlier values.
5
Price-Weighted Series
A price-weighted series is an arithmetic average of current prices, which means that index movements are influenced by the differential 30 prices of the components. DJIA ! pit / Dadj DJIA i !1
the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the best-known price-weighted series and is also the oldest and most popular stock-market indicator series. It is computed by totaling the current prices of the 30 stocks and dividing the sum by a divisor that has been adjusted to take account of stock splits and changes in the sample over time.
Price-weighted series 9
when a stock splits, the divisor becomes smaller as shown. The cumulative effect of splits can be derived from the DJIAit was originally 30but as of July 1999 it was 0.197405 Price-weighted series 10
because the series is price-weighted, a high-priced stock carries more weight than a low-priced stock. 11 Price-weighted series
12
Price-weighted series 13
Value-Weighted Series
A value-weighted series is generated by deriving the initial total market value of all stocks used in the series:
Market Value = Number of Shares Outstanding Current Market Price
This initial figure is typically established as the base and assigned an index value (the most popular beginning index value is 100, but it can vary - say, 10, 50). Subsequently, a new market value is computed for all securities in the index, and the current market value is compared to the initial base value to determine the percentage change, which in turn is applied to the beginning index value: Pt Qt
Index t !
PQ
b
14
Value-Weighted Series
In a value-weighted series, there is an automatic adjustment for stock splits and other capital changes (since the decreased price of the share is offset by an equal and opposite effect of an increase in the number of shares outstanding). In a value-weighted index, the importance of individual stocks in the sample depends on the market value of the stocks. Therefore, a specified percentage change in the value of a large company has a greater impact than a comparable percentage change in a small company.
15
16
Value-weight Indexes
Price changes for the large market value stocks in a valueweighted index will dominate changes in the index over time. This value-weighted effect was prevalent on U.S. stock markets (NYSE, OTC) in 1998 when the market was being driven by large growth stocks - that is, almost all of the gain for the year was attributable to the largest 50 of the S&P 500 Index.
17
Value-Weighted Series
The TSE 300 Composite
TSE 300 Composite Index is a value-weighted series: 300 stocks (comprised of 14 subindexes) weights of the stocks is based on market capitalization adjusted for major shareholders Base year = 1975 Base value of the index = 1000
18
D at
D e c -9 7 J a n -9 8 F e b -9 8 a r-9 8
A r -9 8 a y -9 8
-98
e p -9 8 c t-9 8 v-9 8
D e c -9 8 J a n -9 9 F e b -9 9 a r-9 9
a y -9 9
7519.5 841 .8
Feb-
J an-
D e c -9 9
De c-
7256.2
J n -9 9
A p r-9 9
62 8.
J l-9 8
J n -9 8
67
69 1.4 55 .7
5614.1 62 8. 6 44.2 6485.9 10000 6729.6 6 12.7 8000 6597.8 6000 7 14.7 6841.8 4000 7 1 .1 7 8 .7 697 .8 6957.7 2000 0
.7
19
sub-indexes - 0 /0 /0
11.Communications & Media 12.Merchandising 13.Financial Services 14.Conglomerates
20
6. Industrial Products
steel fabricating & engineering transportation equipment technology-hardware building materials chemicals & fertilizers technology -software autos & parts
21
12.Merchandising
wholesale distributors food stores department stores specialty stores hospitality
13.Financial Services
banks & trusts investment companies & funds insurance financial management companies
14.Conglomerates
22
12.Merchandising
wholesale distributors FTT - Finning International Inc. RCH - Richelieu Hardware Ltd. UNS - Uni-select Inc.
14.Conglomerates
BNN.A - Brascan Corp CP - Canadian Pacific Ltd OCX - Onex Corporation SV POW - Power Corporation of Canada SV
23
TSE
For further information on the Toronto Stock Exchange go to:
http://www.tse.com
go to the periodicals in the Chancellor Patterson Library and go to Toronto Stock Exchange Review
24
Value-Weighted Series
A TSE Problem - when a companys market capitalization gets too great
This became a serious problem for the TSE 300 Composite in 2000 since BCE (Bell Canada Enterprises) has a large number of shares outstanding and their the individual share price rose to a point where the firm and its subsidiaries represented more than 20% of the TSE 300 The reason this is a problem is that professionally-managed portfolios are not allowed to invest more than 10% of their value in any one stock (for proper diversification of riskand the need as a professional fiduciary to ensure proper diversification)hence, the usefulness of the TSE 300 as a benchmark of comparison has diminished considerably.
25
26
Index Value (T) 1.0531 = Index Value (T + 1) Index Value (T) 1.06 = Index Value (T + 1)
28
29
Weighting
Price Price Market Value Market Value Market Value Market Value Market Value Equal (geo) Market Value
30
31
32
Mean and Standard Deviation of Annual Percentage Price Change for Stock Price Series 1972 - 1997
Geometric Mean DJIA 8.79 S&P 500 9.06 NASDAQ 11.89 Wilshire 5000 9.29 TSE 300 11.32 FT All-share 10.37 Nikkei 6.97 Arithmetic Mean 10.09 10.35 13.94 10.69 12.54 14.36 9.74 Standard Deviation 16.70 16.49 20.81 17.07 16.52 31.94 25.77 Coefficient of Variation 1.66 1.59 1.49 1.60 1.32 2.22 2.65
This gives you an idea of the mean return and volatility of returns for the universe of securities measured by the respective index.
34
Mean and Standard Deviation of Annual Rates of Return for Lehman Brothers Bond Indexes 1972 - 1997
Geometric Mean
Arithmetic Mean
Standard Deviation
Coefficient of Variation
35
Correlation Coefficients Among Monthly Percentage Price Changes In Alternative Equity Indices 1972 - 1997
S&P 500
Wilshire 5000
TSE 300
S&P 500 NYSE NASDAQ Wilshire 5000 TSE 300 Nikkei FT All-Share
0.293 0.627
36