The Elephant & The Dragon

Abhishek Jain

Source CIA World Factbook

India Population (July 2006) 1.1 b (1.38% ) GDP (exh rate) (2006) $796.1 billion GDP (PPP) $4.042 trillion GDP Real Growth 8.5% Per Capita GDP $3,700 Agriculture19.9% Industry19.3% (g = 7.5%) Services60.7% Labor Force 509.3 million Inflation rate (CPI) 5.3% Investment 29.2% of GDP Debt - external $132.1 billion

China 1.3 (0.59%) $2.512 trillion $10 trillion 10.5% $7,600 11.9% 48.1% ( g = 22.9%) 40% 798 million 1.5% 44.3% of GDP $305.6 billion

China Story

Why China is growing fast?

Prior to the 1978 reforms, nearly four in five Chinese worked in agriculture; by 1994, only one in two did.

Pillars of Performance

Chinese reforms started with agriculture.

Incentive to use underutilized land and labor resources intensively. When rural incomes rose, the demand for non-agricultural output increased proportionately.

Labor-intensive manufactures for export promotion by developing infrastructure mainly in the southern coastal cities using FDI Diaspora to substitute lack of local entrepreneurship & technology

Pillars of Performance

Marry Chinese cheap labor resources with Hong Kong's market-based institutions, business organizations and supply chain networks to make a successful entry into the world market

Comprehensively Beaten?

India Poised

Expectation

Reality

India World Factory?

India Infrastructure Challenge

High cost of power Inefficient ports Poor Roads Railway cross subsidize passenger with freight

High Cost of Finance

Way to go!

Social

Red Indian

How will India rein in its fiscal deficit? How will India discipline its political class? How will India deregulate its over-regulated economy?

How long will world remain Flat?

Globalization has Improved the Inflation and Growth Trade-Off

Is China's growing lead over India irreversible?

Chinese Whisper

Infirmities in its microeconomic, institutional and entrepreneurial bases raise doubts on the sustainability of its superior performance. High capital-output ratio suggests excess capacities, and probably misallocation and wastage of capital resources. Industrial structure fragmented by scale and location leading to poor efficiency Legal framework of business is still rudimentary Lack entrepreneurial groups Collapse of D'Long - China's largest private company with operations worldwide

Chinas Capi-toll

Capital stock grew by nearly 7 percent a year over 197994 But capital-output ratio has hardly budged.

Production of goods and services per unit of capital remained about the same. Financing of unprofitable investment Political rather than economic decision logic! NPA between 25 50% of GDP

Chalte Chalte

2005 Data