Freyssin Et M en Ard: India Busine Ss Pe Rspe CT Ive (Macroandmicroanalysis) Fy0 9

FREYSSIN ET M EN ARD
In d ia Bu sin e ss Pe r sp e ct ive
( M a cr o a n d M icr o An a lysis)
FY0 9
Somewhere in SAHARA Dessert……

Every day in the morning, the deer knows

that it must run faster than the fastest lion, if
it has to stay alive!
Every day in the morning, the lion knows,

that it has to run faster than the slowest
deer, if it has to satisfy his hunger and stay
alive!
INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

It does not matter whether you run
slow or fast, when the Sun comes up
in the morning, you better start
running

Data on Competition in India
SoftDrink Manufacturers:
◦58 branded manufacturers, 230 local manufacturers
Software solution providers:
◦146 in FY 02, changed to 586 in FY 03, 720 in FY09
Credit Cards:
◦38 in FY 03, 90 in FY 05, 120 in FY09
Car manufacturers
3 in 80’s
4 in 90’s
18 in ’99
24 in ’03
28 in ‘09

Surplus Economies
There will be more confusion in the business
world in the next decade than in any other
decade in history, and the current pace of
change will only accelerate.
Steve Case
ex-
chairman
AOL
Number of variables, permutations and
combinations have increased in the last few
years on account of:
Globalization
Deregulation
Emerging economies
Consolidation
Business Strategies
Most Companies strive for:
◦Maximizing profits
◦Increasing market shares
◦Enhancing shareholder value
◦Contribute to the Society and Economy in which
they operate
◦
◦
What differentiates a Winner from a Loser ?

Business Strategy
Speed is the “KEY”

differentiator



Speed is determined by:
◦Strategy that the
Company chooses
to follow
◦Rigor of execution of
the ‘Chosen
Strategy’

Strategy
Strategy is a conscious set of choices that

defines how we will allocate the available
resources to accomplish the Task
Business processes that deliver the Strategy

are “Strategic Business Processes”

Competitive Strategy
Competitive Strategy is aimed at:-
Neutralizing the competition


Ensuring it is superior to that of the competition

Factors in competitors capabilities and intentions

India: Positive Economic
Indices
PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS Overall GDP
Forex Reserve
GOOD
All Indices point to growth Current Account
FUTURE OUTLOOK
External Debt
Service sector Growth
Financial Reforms Savings
New Investment
FDI Inflows
Industrial Growth
Economic reforms
Internal Debt inflation
Fiscal Deficit
Agricultural Growth
Forex
BAD CURRENT PERFORMANCE GOOD
Source : Citigroup estimates INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

India: GDP Growth
# SECTOR WISE GROWTH REVISED DUE TO M acro Econom ic Indicators
LIKELY ECONOMIC SLOW DOWN 12

INDIA INC. TO PUT MORE FOCUS ON POWER 10
& ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO SUSTAIN THE 8

6
GROWTH STORY 4
INDIAN ECONOMY IS EXPECTED TO 2
SURPASS JAPAN BY 2032 0

FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 LT
GDP IIP Cons truc tion
Macro Economic Indicators

16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 LT
Steel Cement Power Coal Crude Oil
Source: CMIE, DES

India V/s China – Key Indicators
GDP will be supported by a healthy Industrial Growth Strong INR controlled inflation would sustain growth
16 16 50
12.7
41.83
12 10.6 12
39.84
40
%
8.9
7.9
8 8 8
7.5
%
7.5 6.8
30
5.9
4
4
0 20
0
FY02
FY05
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY03
FY04
FY06
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
GDP (India) GDP (China) IIP (India) IIP (China) CPI Exchange Rate
Energy cost esp. Crude to remain @ high levels India – Growth story looks sustainable
200 •Stable social & political environment
•Strong Demographic profile
150
•Economy driven by Domestic Consumption
•Low Per capita steel consumption @ ~ 38
130
100
82 kg/person
•Investment in Infrastructure – A must for Nation
50
building
•
0
•
FY08
FY13
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2005
Source: CMIE, CRIS INFAC INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

SYNOPSIS – INDIAN ECONOMY
L a rg e s t E c o n o m ie s in 2 0 5 0
50000
45000
40000
35000
TODAY
30000
US$ Billion
25000
20000
15000
10000
•One of the fastest growing world
5000 economies
0
C h in a USA In d ia Ja pan Br a zil Ru s s ia UK Ge r m a n y Fr a n c e Ita ly
•Reasonably proactive
•Opening up of sectors for
YESTERDAY investment
•Promising consumer markets
•Slow rate of growth
•Significant investment in
•Bureaucratic infrastructure creation for
industry
•Protected and slow
•Small consumer markets
•Underdeveloped
infrastructure
Source: CMIE, CRIS INFAC

SYNOPSIS – INDIAN ECONOMY
Population Comparison India's Infrastructure Lags Behind Rest of BRICs
India
1800 1400
1600
1200
1400
Number millions
1200 1000 China

1000 800
Index
800
600
600
400 400 Brazil
200 200
0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electric Pow er Roads paved (% of Telephone Air transport Russia
Consum ption (kw h total roads) m ainlines (per 1000 freight (m illion
India China per capita) people) tonnes per km )
Working Age Population

More Work for Broadening Education
% of Population Over Age 15 without
70
80
68
70 66
60 64
% Population
62
Schooling
50
40 60
58
30
56
20 54
10 52
0 50
1960 1980 2000 2007 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
India Brazil China Rus sia G8

India Brazil China Russia
•However; population growth needs to be curtailed by imparting education to wider class of

population
•Inherent potential lies in weakened infrastructures.
•India has a leverage on higher base of working age population over 2050
Source: GOLDMAN SACHS
Movement in Currency rates
Movement in Exchange Rate Movement in Exchange Rate
120.00
70.00
64.57 66.00 65 101.12
100.00 99.00 97
96
60.00 57.86 94.53
91.18 93.131
91.7444 92.46 93.00
56.7
50.00 80.00
40.00 41.80 39.9 40.00 42.50 40.8 60.00

39.00 38.10 39.00 39
35
30.00 40.00 36.58 31.54 32.06 32.70 32
20.00 20.00
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 LT FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 LT
Rs./USD Rs./Euro Rs./Yen (per 1000 Yen) USD/Yuan USD/Ringgit USD/10 Won USD/Baht USD/100 Rupiah
Movement in Exchange Rate (%) Movement in Exchange Rate (%)
15.00 15.00 13.8

10.00 11.1
10.26 10.00 9.51 9.16 10.00
5.00 6.61
6.02 5.4
3.00 5.00
2 2.86
0.00 0.13 1.48 1.75 2.00
(1.24) (2.00) 0.00 1.00
FY06(3.46) FY07 FY08 FY09(4.00) -0.61
(5.00) (2.00)
(7.57) FY06 FY07 FY08(3.09) FY09
(5.00)
(10.00)
(10.00) (8.87)
(15.00)
(16.71)
(17.81)
(20.00) (15.00)
Rs./USD Rs./Euro Rs./Yen (per 100 Yen) USD/Won USD/Yuan USD/Baht USD/Ringgit USD/Rupiah
•INR is comparatively stable indicating positive and healthy economy

•DES project INR to stay at 42.3 against US$ during FY10
•Other economies to watch closely like Malaysia, Thailand and South Africa
•Large base of Indian economy has an inherent advantage; however inflation needs a check
Source: GOLDMAN SACHS
FORECAST FOR INDIA
Agency Forecasts for India

NCAER •GDP growth for FY09 revised from 8.9% to 6.7%.
•Agriculture expected to grow at 4%,
•Manufacturing at 6% to 6.7%.
•Export growth at 13% in dollar terms,
•Inflation rate at 10.8% to 11.4%
CMIE •GDP growth for FY04 revised from 7.0 to 7.5%

•Agriculture growth at 5.8% following to good monsoons
•Services growth at 8.8%
CRISIL •GDP growth for FY04 revised to 7.5%

•Agriculture growth at 5.5%
•Industrial growth at 5.3%
•Services growth at 9.3%

GROWTH REVISED – INDIAN ECONOMY
Core Sector Period April to September
FY 08 FY 09 (Revised)
Overall 6.30 % 6.80 %
Crude Petroleum 2.80 % 1.8 %
Refined Petroleum 4.50 % 3.20%
Coal 7.20 % 6.50 %
Electricity 15.0 % 10.20 %
Cement 8.40 % 5.40 %
Steel 9.60 % 7.80 %
Index of Industrial Production 5.90% 4.50%
Source: CMIE, NCAER

Advantage Infra – Investment Attractiveness
1%
16%
15% 13%
13% 11%
10% 9% 2%
13% 4% 2%
2% 8%
22%
1% 14%
1%
15%
30%
Total Outlay 10th Plan Total Outlay 11th Plan

Rs. 8,800 Billion Rs. 20,272 Billion
Electricity Roads Telecom Railways Irrigation
Water Supply Ports Airports Storage Gas
Construction sector is likely to grow at CAGR of 10.2% in the long term
Source: PLANNING COMISSION

Projected Investment till 2012 by Committee on Infrastructure
Rs Billion FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY08 FY09 Planned Exp. XIth

Plan
Airports 20 15 15 24 25 62 65 400
Irrigation 151 139 208 222 252 270 338 2231
Ports 7 5 5 10 20 97 117 500
Power 232 312 340 350 346 742 928 6165
Railways 121 135 153 146 140 332 399 2580
Roads 206 190 199 212 213 513 543 3118
Telecom 133 126 89 116 116 331 398 2670

Urban Infra. 162 174 184 220 250 330 430 1400
The eleventh plan investment in infrastructure has been revised to Rs. 20,272
Billion from earlier 18,894 Billion during mid term appraisal.
Source: PLANNING COMISSION

Sectoral Overview
•Overview Power Sector

•Overview Cement Sector
•Overview Steel Sector
•Overview Elevated Sector
•Overview Port Sector

Energy a Prime Concern for Every Economy
10000
North America Japan
10000 9227 (Kwh/ year)
Germany US
Developing
W. Europe
A ustralia Braz il 8184
1000
FSU/E. Europe 8000
GDP (Billion $)
China
OECD Asia/Pacific New Zealand

Russia
100 Bangladesh India 6000

South Korea
Pakistan Mexico
4003 4002
10 4000
Turkmenistan
2199
1 2000 153
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 776 559
Primary Energy (Trillion BT U)
0
People without Electricity Access (millions)
900
C anada USA G erm a n y J ap a n FS U C h in a In d ia Wor
Avg
800
South Asia •For India - power generation,
700 (India) Transmission and Distribution is the
600
prime concern for sustaining healthy
500
economic growth
400
Sub-Saharan Africa
300 •
200
100
•Commitment on implementation of
0 East Asia (China) plans is the key during XIth plan
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009 Source: MOP, CEA, GOLDMAN SACH

Power Scenario in India
Installed Power Capacity in India (MW)
500000
221638
400000
300000 143061
124569
MW
108315 114164 118097

104524
200000 63807
100000 30818 32326 34654 47254

27817 28925 150551
73987 76670 80626 82411 86015 91907
0
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 Target XI
Plan
Thermal Hydro Nuclear Total
ØTo meet the higher demand in power generation; about 100,000 MW of generating capacity
would be required by 2012
ØLooking at past record for implementation of plans, more serious efforts are required by
Ministry of Power and CEA in order to implement and realize the plans set
Source: MOP, CEA, GOLDMAN SACH

Power Generation – Balancing Act
48%
33% 29%
5% 3% 3%
68%
64%
47%
39% 36%
Act. 2005 Act. 2007 Act. 2012

Total-1,14,164 Total-1,24,569 Total-2,21,628
9% 7%
57%
52%
Plan 2030 Plan 2050

Total-3,50,000 Total-5,70,000
ØMore focus on Thermal MODE to Hydro and to Nuclear in long term

ØSerious thought on adopting energy model of France; France being the biggest exploiter of
Nuclear sources with 59 nuclear plants with combined capacity of 63,400 MWe

Thermal Power

Capacity Addition – Thermal Power
ØIndia is the second largest producer of Coal. It has the highest deposits of coal in the world
ØConventionally India is dependent on Thermal power and has a greater base of coal based
power generation

Thermal Power – Project wise Capacity Additions
•Private Sector Companies are

going to play a major role in
establishing Thermal Power Plants
in India

Hydro Power

Hydro Power – Indian Scenario
ØNHPC is the largest public sector player in Hydro

Power
ØNHPC’s target capacity addition for 11th plan is 5322
MW
Ø8 projects of NHPC are awaiting clearances from
MOP
ØNorth-East and Up-North are the focused areas for exploitation of Hydro resources

NTPC & NTPC Hydro
ØNTPC Hydro is formed with an objective to add 7,000 MW of hydro power capacity by 2017
ØProjects under implementation are Lata Tapovan Hydro Electric Project (171 MW) in Uttarakhand and
ØRammam Hydroelectric Project, Stage III (120 MW) in West Bengal & Sikkim
Ø
Arunachal Pradesh. Department of Hydro Power

ØArunachal Pradesh is tipped to become 'Power House' of India
ØLatest estimates of CEA states that the identified hydro power capacity in Arunachal Pradesh is 50,328 MW
ØIn 2006, state signed an MOA with NHPC, NTPC and NEEPCO for harnessing 10,230 MW of hydro power capacity
Ø
Himachal Pradesh State Electricity Boars (HPSEB)

ØHPSEB has a hydel power potential of about 20,415 MW
ØProjects worth 5,744 MW are expected to be executed during the XIth plan
Ø
Tehri Hydro development Corporation (THDC)

ØTHDC is currently implementing Tehri Hydro Power Complex (2400 MW), VishnuGad Pipalkoti Project (444 MW) and
six new hydroelectric projects with capacity of 695 MW
Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam (SJVNL)

ØSJVNL has drawn up a massive Rs. 29,000 crore plan to add hydro generation capacity of 5,000 by 2014-15
Source: MOP, CEA, GOLDMAN SACH INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

Jaypee Group
ØIt has bagged Lower Siang 2025 MW and 500 MW Hirong Hydro Projects in Arunachal Pradesh
ØIt has bagged 270 MW Umngot & 450 MW Kynshi (Stage II) in Meghalaya
Reliance Power
ØIn Arunachal Pradesh, it is developing 700 MW Tato II & 1,000 MW Siyom near the
Siyom River in West Siang
ØIn Uttarakhand it is developing the 400 MW Urthing Sobia hydro project in Pithorgarh
Lanco Group
ØCurrently working on Teesta VI hydro power project
ØThe long term goal of Lanco is to go own around 3,000 MW of power across India

Hydro Power – Project wise Capacity Additions
Sr Project Project Cost (in Type of Project Client Contractor Technical Features Status of Project
No million Rupees)
1 Vyasi 7,600 120MW (2 x 60MW) NHPC and To be - 86m high concrete gravity Dam GoUK vide letter dated
Project Hydro Power Govt. of Awarded 23.06.08 alloted the project to
Uttarakhand - 7m dia., 2.7km long, circular shaped UJNVL. NHPC vide letter
Head Race Tunnel dated 23.06.08 and 27.11.08
- 18m dia., 62m high Restricted requested GoUK to
Orifice type Surge Shaft reconsider its decision.
- 2 nos., 4m dia., each 209m long, Discussions between NHPC,
Circular shaped Pressure Shaft GoUK and Ministry of Power
is going on for this matter.
2 URI II 17,250 240MW (4 x 60MW) NHPC HCC - 52m high concrete gravity Dam Consruction is in full swing.
Hydro Power Nearly 40% of dam is
- 8.4 dia., 4.3 km long, horse shoe completed. 60% of HRT
shape Head Race Tunnel completed and Power House
- Underground Power House of 133m excavation done.
length x 15m width x 40m height to Construction of Power House
accommodate 4 units of 60MW to begin by Feb 2009.
capacity. Anticipated completion date
- 3.6 km long, horse shoe type Tail of project is August 2010.
Race Tunnel
3 Teesta IV 37,040 520 MW (4 x NHPC To be - 108.30m high concrete gravity dam Implementation Agreement
130MW) Hydro Awarded has been signed with Govt. of
Power - 7.5m dia., 2 nos., 6.65km and Sikkim on 01.03.2006.
6.59km long Head Race Tunnel Environmental clearance in
under process and awaited.
- 20m dia., 130m high Surge Shaft DPR submitted to CEA on
31.03.2008 for concurrence.
- Underground Power House with 4
units of 130MW each

Sr Project Project Cost (in Type of Project Client Contractor Technical Features Status of Project
No million Rupees)
4 Tawang - II 31,980 750MW (3 x 250MW) NHPC To be Awarded - 32m high Barrage of R.C.C. raft with MOA has been signed
Hydro Power piers with Govt. of Arunachal
- 17.2 km, 6.5m x 7.5m modified Horse Pradesh on 24.06.07 for
Shoe Shaped Head Race Tunnel execution of the project on
ownership basis by NHPC
alone. DPR preparation in
- Underground type Power house with 3
under progress.
units of 250MW each.
- 1.2km long, 6.5 x 7.5m Modified Horse

Shoe Shaped Tail Race Tunnel
5 Subansari 62,860 2000MW (8 x NHPC L&T and Soma - 116m high concrete gravity dam River diversion achieved.
(Lower) 250MW) Hydro 86% of Dam foundation
Power - 9.5m dia., 1.145km long, 8 nos., Horse excavation completed.
Shoe Shaped Head Race Tunnel Power house excavation
completed and 13%
Power House concreting
- Surface Power House to accommodate
has been completed. Dam
8 units of 250MW capacity each.
is being constructed by
Soma and Power House,
- Pressure shaft - 8 nos., Horse Shoe / HRT, etc. by L&T.
circular shaped varying dia of 9.5m to
7.0m and length 192 to 215m.
6 Subansari 64,070 1600MW (8 x NHPC To be Awarded - 195m high gravity dam Environmental Clearance
(Middle) 200MW) Hydro - 10.0m dia, 745m to 1005m long, 4 nos., awaited. Meeting of
Power Horse Shoe Shaped Head Race Tunnel Standing committee is
scheduled on 12.02.2009
- Underground Power House for clearance.
- 10.0m dia, 375m to 240m long, 4 nos.
Horse Shoe Shaped Tail Race Tunnel.

Sr Project Project Cost (in Type of Client Contractor Technical Features Status of Project
No million Rupees) Project
7 Kishenganga 10,470 330MW (3 x NHPC HCC - 37m high concrete face rockfill dam Awarded to HCC in Jan
110MW) Hydro 2009. Mobilization
Power - 5.4m dia., 8km long Horse Shoe expected to begin in
Shaped followed by 5.2m dia., 16km March 2009.
long, Circular shaped Head Race Tunnel
- Underground Power house for 3 units of

110MW each, Pelton Wheel Turbines.
- 4.1m dia., 746m long D-shaped Tail

Race Tunnel followed by 120m cut and
cover and 111, long open channel.
8 Kotli Bhel 26,770 530MW (8 x NHPC To be - 82m high concrete gravity dam Forest Clearance
Stage II 66.25MW) Awarded Awaited. Draft CCEA note
Hydro Power - 6.8m dia., 140m long, 8 nos., Circular submitted to Ministry of
Shaped Pressure Shafts Power on 30.08.2008
- 4 nos., 10m dia., 350m, 350m, 345m,

320m long, Horse Shoe Shaped tunnels
bifurcating into 8 nos., 7.8m dia., 40m
long each Horse Shoe Shaped Tail Race
tunnels
9 Lachen 10,470 210MW (3 x NHPC To be - 85m high concrete gravity dam Agreement for the
Project 70MW) Awarded implementation of the
- 6m dia., 4.5km Horse Shoe shaped project was signed
Head Race Tunnel between NHPC and Govt.
- Underground Power House with 3 units of Sikkim on 01.03.2008.
of 70MW each, Vertical Francis Tunnel Further clearances of
various bodies awaited.

Sr Project Project Cost (in Type of Client Contractor Technical Features Status of Project
No million Rupees) Project
10 Pakal Dul 54,700 1000MW (4 x NHPC To be - 167m high concrete face rockfill dam Memorandum of
250MW) Hydro Awarded Understanding signed by
Power NHPC, JKSPDC, Govt. of
- 2 nos., 6.75m dia., each 10km long, J&K and PTC on
Horse Shoe shaped Head Race Tunnel 10.10.2008 for execution
of the project through a
- Underground Power House with 4 units joint venture company by
of 250MW each, Francis Turbine the JKSPDC, NHPC and
PTC with equity pattern of
49%, 49% and 2%
respectively.
11 Bursar 43,790 1020MW (4 x NHPC To be - 252m high rock filled dam Ministry of Power
Project 255MW) Hydro Awarded - 11.5m dia., 4.7km long, Horse Shoe constituted a committee to
Power Shaped Head Race Tunnel examine the techno
commercial feasibility of
project vide their letter
- Underground Power House with 4 units dated 08.10.2008
of 255MW each Francis Turbine
12 Dhauliganga 7,110 210MW (3 x NHPC To be - 57m high concrete gravity dam Draft implementation
Intermediate 70MW) Hydro Awarded agreement sent to Govt. of
Power Uttarakhand on
- 5.5m dia., 8.6 km long, horse shoe
20.03.2008. Further
shaped, Head Race Tunnel
clearances awaited.
- Underground Power House, 3 units of

70MW each

Nuclear Power

Nuclear Power – Indian Scenario
Nuclear Power - Capacity & Projections (MW)
60000
50000
50000
40000
30000 24000
20000
10000 6730
2720 2720 2720 3360 3900 3900
0
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 Plan- Target- Target-
FY11 2020 2030
Ø123 Deal is a historical event in Indian Nuclear scenario

ØWith NSG waiver; India is free to buy Nuclear fuel from
other countries
ØWith this current nuclear plants are likely to operate at
higher capacity utilization and augment the process
of setting up more plants across India
ØOther players (NTPC, L&T, Tata Power, Reliance Power &
Vedanta, etc.) in power segment are likely to get
approval from DAE to set-up Nuclear plants
Source: MOP, CEA, DAE

Sectoral Overview


Cement – Indian Scenario
ØCement demand in India is likely to grow at CAGR of 7.4% in the long term
Source: JCC

Sectoral Overview


Focus on Metro Railway Plan – All India
Place Phase Package Total kms Elevated No. of Stations - Underground Stretch No. of Stations - Owner Contractor Consultant Design Start Date End Date
Stretch (km) Elevated (km) Underground
Hyderabad 1 72 72 63 BOT MAYTAS TANDON DMRC 2009 2014
Kolkata 1 15.5 5.5 5 KMRCL GAMMON Systra DMRC 2009 2012
10 8 KMRCL ITD / GAMMON / SIMPLEX TENDER DMRC 2010 2012
2 7 7 6 KMRCL PLANNING DMRC 2010 2013
Bangalore 1 A 18.1 15 12 BMRCL NEC / IDEB / SIMPLEX DMRC RITES 2008 2011
B 3 4 BMRCL SOMA-CEC DMRC RITES 2009 2011
2 A 14.9 12 11 BMRCL TENDER DMRC RITES 2009 2013
B 3 4 BMRCL PLANNING DMRC RITES 2010 2013
Mumbai 1 1 11.4 11.4 12 DBOOT RELIANCE ADAG SYSTRA RITES 2008 2011
2 38.3 38.3 DBOOT PRE-QUALIFICATION RITES 2009 2014
3 13.4 13.4 MMRDA FEASIBILITY 2010 2013
2 1 7.5 7.5 MMRDA PLANNING DMRC 2011 2016
2 12.2 12.2 MMRDA PLANNING DMRC 2011 2016
3 1 19.5 19.5 MMRDA PLANNING DMRC 2016 2021
2 18 18 MMRDA PLANNING DMRC 2016 2021
3 21.8 18 4 MMRDA PLANNING DMRC 2016 2021
4 3.5 3.5 MMRDA PLANNING DMRC 2016 2021
Chennai 1 A 23.1 13.9 8 CMRCL SOMA DMRC DMRC 2009 2012
B 9.2 10 CMRCL PLANNING DMRC
Delhi 3 82 52.8 50 29.2 30 DMRCL PLANNING DMRC DMRC 2010 2013
Ahmedabad FEASIBILITY
Kochi 1 25.2 25.2 21 BOT FEASIBILITY DMRC 2010 2013
ØMajor cities like Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad,

Pune, Cochin is likely to see Metro Rail with
implementation planned in next 5 – 10 years
TOTAL ELEVATED – 345.2 kms / TOTAL UNDERGROUND – 58.4 kms

Sectoral Overview


India - Potential for Exponential Growth in
Steel Consumption
10000 Steel Consumption and GDP per Capita in 2004
Peak Point
Point of
Steel consumption (kg/capita)
1000
Saturation
US
Singap Japa
China S. Kr. ore n
Tai Jpn
100
EU
India USA
UAE
10 Taiwan
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
6
South Korea
GDP per capita (US$000 at PPP rates)
2 0 hi na
-0
Trigger 00 Singapore
C
Point Hong Kong

Point of Japan
Inflection EU 15
Indi USA
a Australia
China
India
0 200 400
Per 600 in 800
capita KG 1000 1200 14
•India is one of the lowest consumer of steel

•India will be a part of The new Steel world …
Source: JPC
Indian Market Structure for FLAT & LONG
OTHERS
14% SAIL
28%
Total: 39 MMT PA Bhushan
10%
Flat: 22 MMT
Long: 17 MMT FLAT ISPAT
10% TATA
STEEL
Others 13 14%
JSW
11% ESSAR
13%
ISPAT 2.1
JSW 2.2
ESSAR 2.6 SAIL
17%
RINL 3.0 TATA STEEL
OTHERS 9%
45%
TSL 5.6
LONG
SAIL + RINL
18%
IISCO 9.5
11%
ØTotal production of FLAT + LONG product in India is 39 MMT PA

ØThe current rati0 - FLAT:LONG is 60:40
ØFlat product is more consolidated; whereas Long product is highly fragmented
Source: TATA STEEL, SAIL

Indian Market Structure for LONG
Market for LONG – MMT PA
40
35
30 5.5
25 7
4 4.3
20 3.6 3.8
3.3 4.2 4.5
3.15 4
15 3.5 3.8
3.35 17
10 11.8 12.5 12 mm
9.8 10.5 11.2
9.2
5 16%
2.3 2.5 2.65 2.8 3.2 3.4 4.5
0 10 mm
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 E FY10 P FY15 P 16%
Wire Rods Rebars Structurals Rails, Others 16 mm
18%
8 mm
15%
20 mm
11%
25 mm
14%
40 mm
1%
36 mm
•Total Rebar market size – 11.20 MMT 2% 32 mm
•Majority of the market contributed by 8 mm, 10 mm 6% 28 mm
1%
12mm, 16 mm & 25 mm (about 79%)
•Rest is in other sizes

Indian Market Structure for LONG
Total Market: 6.26 MMT PA Cements
Steel Plants
Plants
16 mm Total Value: 70K Crores 6%
5%
26% Aviation
14%
Marine
20 mm Eelevated
12 mm 9%
16% Structures
24%
13%
Power
16%
25 mm Realty
32 mm 20% 13%
40 mm
9% Misc.
1% Roads
Size Market (MMT/A) 3% Irrigation
36 mm 28 mm 7% 14%
3% 1%
Power 1 .0
Marine 0.56
Aviation 0.87
Size Market (MMT/A)
Cement Plants 0.37
16 mm 2.12
Steel Plants 0.31
20 mm 1.30
Elevated 0.81
25 mm 1.65
Real Estate 0.81
28 mm 0.12
32 mm 0.71 Roads 0.87
Irrigation 0.44
36 mm 0.24
40 mm 0.12 Misc. 0.18

Sectoral Overview


Focus on Port Development Plan – All India
Sl. No. LOCATION CLIENT COST (INR) STATUS CONSULTANTS REMARKS
1 EAST
Kolkata Kolkata Port Trust 500 Million Planning New Jetty
Kulpi Bengal Port Ltd 12 Billion Planning Container Port (P&O, Mukand Steel & Keventer JV)
Orissa POSCO 40 Billion Proposed Captive Port for POSCO Steel Plant
Haldia Haldia Port Trust 600 Million Planning New Jetty

Paradip Paradip Port Trust 450 Million Planning New Jetty
Paradip Port Trust 1.85 Billion Planning Mechanised Coal handling system
Dhamra Dhamra Port (L & T and TISCO JV) 20 Billion Planning L & T Ramboll Bulk Cargo Terminal
2 AP
Vishakhapatnam Vizag Port Trust 500 Million Planning Tank Farm
3 TN
Tuticorin Tuticorin Port Trust 12 Billion Planning L & T Ramboll New Outer harbour first phase
4 KERALA
Cochin Kochi Port Trust 1.5 Billion Planning Bunkering Terminal
5 KARNATAKA
Mangalore New Mangalore Port 6 Billion Planning Container Terminal for Trans Shipment
NPCL 2.5 Billion Planning Captive Jetty

6 GOA Mormugao Port Trust 1 Billion Planning Vasco Bay Development
Goa Shipyard Ltd 1 Billion Planning Haskoning Revamp of existing shipyard
7 GUJARAT
Kandla Kandla Port Trust 500 Million Planning Container Freight Station
Hazira Shell / Essar Planning POL Jetty

Jamnagar Essar Planning POL Jetty

Demand Drivers, Key Success Factors &
Probable Risk
Segments Sub-Segments Demand Drivers
Power Thermal Higher base of installed capacity, high deposits of coal

•
Private participation in installing power plants

•
Hydro •High potential to tap energy

•Better hydel resources available in India
•Private participation in installing power plants
Nuclear Success in 123 deal and NSG waiver

•
Private participation in installing power plants

•
Metals & Mining Steel •Inflow of FDI in setting up steel plants, e.g. POSCO and ARCELOR
MITTAL
•Increasing per capita steel consumption on the back of improvement
in infrastructure
Aluminum / Copper Investment in setting up of Al and Cu smelters on the verge of

•
growth in electricity

Probable Risk
Petrochemical Refinery Investment in setting up of refineries on back

•
of increasing demand of energy
Roads, Bridges & Elevated Structures Bridge • Increasing pace of vehicular traffic
• Increased pace of urbanization
Elevated Highways
Metro Rail
Aviation Airports Increased pace of domestic and international

•
passenger and cargo traffic

Probable Risk
Marine Ports • Increased pace of international trade
Realty Buildings Increased pace of urbanization

•
Growth in investment in service industry, e.g.

•
BPO, IT parks, etc

Bar Products Budget 2009
Project Name Consultant Contractor Final Client Product
Ennore Port - Second L&T Ramboll Larsen & Toubro Larsen & Toubro Tie rods
Phase
Hazira Port Howe India Yet to be awarded SHELL - TOTAL JV Tie rods
Skywalk in Mumbai SN Bhobe J. Kumar MMRDA Tension Bars
Main Cable Stay Tandon - Construma J.V. Gammon India DTTDC Tension Bars
Signature Bridge
Ahmedabad Airport TCE Yet to be awarded Airport Authority of India Tension Bars
Dahod Cable Stay Venu Consultants Yet to be awarded ADA Tension Bars
Goa Airport L&T Ramboll Yet to be awarded Airport Authority of India Tension Bars
Basoli Cable stayed Feasibility Study J&K Govt. Tension Bars

bridge, J&K
Cricket Stadium, Pune TCE Yet to be awarded MMRDA Tension Bars, Ground Anchors
Kakrapara NPCIL Tender Rock Anchors

THANK
YOU

Freyssin Et M en Ard: India Busine Ss Pe Rspe CT Ive (Macroandmicroanalysis) Fy0 9

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FREYSSIN ET M EN ARD

Every day in the morning, the deer knows

Every day in the morning, the lion knows,

INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

What differentiates a Winner from a Loser ?

INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

Speed is the “KEY”

INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

Strategy is a conscious set of choices that

Business processes that deliver the Strategy

INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

Competitive Strategy is aimed at:-

Neutralizing the competition

INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

Internal Debt inflation

BAD CURRENT PERFORMANCE GOOD

Source : Citigroup estimates INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

# SECTOR WISE GROWTH REVISED DUE TO M acro Econom ic Indicators

LIKELY ECONOMIC SLOW DOWN 12

& ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO SUSTAIN THE 8

SURPASS JAPAN BY 2032 0

GDP IIP Cons truc tion

Macro Economic Indicators

Steel Cement Power Coal Crude Oil

Source: CMIE, DES

Source: CMIE, CRIS INFAC INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

Source: CMIE, CRIS INFAC

1200 1000 China

Working Age Population

India Brazil China Rus sia G8

•However; population growth needs to be curtailed by imparting education to wider class of

40.00 41.80 39.9 40.00 42.50 40.8 60.00

Movement in Exchange Rate (%) Movement in Exchange Rate (%)

15.00 15.00 13.8

•INR is comparatively stable indicating positive and healthy economy

Agency Forecasts for India

•Export growth at 13% in dollar terms,

•Inflation rate at 10.8% to 11.4%

CMIE •GDP growth for FY04 revised from 7.0 to 7.5%

•Services growth at 8.8%

CRISIL •GDP growth for FY04 revised to 7.5%

•Industrial growth at 5.3%

•Services growth at 9.3%

INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

Source: CMIE, NCAER

INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

Total Outlay 10th Plan Total Outlay 11th Plan

Electricity Roads Telecom Railways Irrigation

Water Supply Ports Airports Storage Gas

Construction sector is likely to grow at CAGR of 10.2% in the long term

Source: PLANNING COMISSION

INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

Rs Billion FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY08 FY09 Planned Exp. XIth

Telecom 133 126 89 116 116 331 398 2670

INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

•Overview Power Sector

INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009

OECD Asia/Pacific New Zealand

100 Bangladesh India 6000

INDIA BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE 2009 Source: MOP, CEA, GOLDMAN SACH