Professional Documents
Culture Documents
M A I C
GB TRAINING
Successful leaders have made Six Sigma their way of conducting business.
-Azim Premji, Chairman,
Wipro Limited
Metric
Metric
6σ Goal
Goal
Benchmark
Benchmark
Locomotive
Locomotive
Culture Way
Way of
of Life
Life
Culture
Target
Target LSL: Lower Specification Limit for a Performance Standard.
Anything below this is a defect.
-6σ +6σ
-6σ +6σ
LSL TT USL
LSL USL
Target 0 days
-20 -10 0 10 20
-20 -10 0 10 20
Four short or long landings per day One short or long landing every two years
16 minutes per week of unsafe water 1.4 minutes of unsafe water every 5 years
supply
■ Process Sustenance
FEW ILLUSTRATIONS
Line-1 :
Baseline = 3 breakdowns/ week poisson distribution
Line- 2 :
Baseline = 12 breakdowns/ week
Target = 6 breakdown/ week max.
???????
• Below plan 3. 42
4. 54
• On plan
5. 56
• Significant improvement 6. 55
7. 42
8. 43
Assume your boss is a tough customer &
he never get satisfies until he is 99% sure. 9. 46
10. 48
11. 57
Graphical Summary
???????
Recall six sigma in
Genetic code
MEASURE
Y ( Outcome) ■ DMAIC applies to an existing process
that needs improvement
Validate Measurement System
ANALYZE
Baseline Y and Set Goal
Identify X’s(Variation Sources)
IMPROVE
Quantify X’s
CONTROL
Control X’s
A CTQ is a
Business CTQ
Product or Service
that satisfies a
Internal CTQ
Customer Requirement
OR
Project CTQ
Process Requirement
vision
✛ Operational Excellence
✛ Cost Reduction
✛ Productivity Improvement
✛ Employee Satisfaction
✛ Customer Satisfaction
✛ Sales Growth
✛ Profitability
✷ Internal/ external
✷ Primary/ secondary
Customer CTQ’s
VOC Table
■ Some functions in the organization may also need to look at internal customers. In this
case, Business CTQs may mingle with Customer CTQs
■ Among the processes identified, find out which are the critical ones (CBPs)
■ More structured methods & tools are available to convert Customer CTQs /
Business CTQs into internal CTQs / CBPs
✛ CTQ Drill-down
✛ Quality Function Deployment (QFD / House of Quality)
■ Project teams may use either or both of these two tools depending upon the
requirement
■ In those situations when you brainstorm project themes, theme selection matrix can be
used to prioritize project themes.
■ Types of Scoping
✛ Longitudinal Scoping
✛ Lateral Scoping
✛ e.g. – From the time a bug is assigned to the time it is submitted for fix
✛ e.g. – From the time of customer reporting the complaint till final satisfaction confirmation
■ Mostly the ‘start’ & ‘end’ points are baton change points
P Tool
Process
S I O C
SIPOC
1 2 5
Process Boundary
Variation
Variation in in output
input
Variation in
process
Manual Manual
Delay
Operation Input
Inside-Outside
Longitudinal
Starts after receipt of PO from customer Any transit delays
Ends at the despatch from factory
Product damages
Lateral
Billing errors
Despatches from Mumbai plant
Non-availability of customer
All despatches during shift A
Despatch through transporter X
Project boundary
■ After the scoping has been done, following should be checked to validate the scope
✛ If there are enough transactions to measure (at least 20 transactions per month are
recommended for effective measurements)
✛ If the scoped process would still result in achieving the objectives set by the Champion
■ Re-scoping may be needed later even after spending considerable time on the project
■ Fill this table with your BB for the roles of each team member
Tool
Team Charter
2
Tool
Tool
Loss Gain
Loss-Gain Matrix
the project? in the project?
■ Prepare a speech
Tool
■ Short-list key words
■ Create the vision statement
■ Communicate to organization
Elevator Speech
1. Imagine you want to sell your Six Sigma project to your
CEO in a chance meeting in an empty elevator with 90
seconds to ride.
2. Describe the need for project & the vision of the new state
as if responding to “WHY DO IT”?
■ Loss-Gain Matrix
■ Elevator Speech
Step 0
Step 1
Establish CTQ Characteristics
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Establish Performance Parameters
Validate Measurement System for ‘Y’ M
Step 4 Establish Process Baseline
Step 5
Step 6
Define Performance Goals
Identify Variation Sources
A
Step 7 Explore Potential Causes
Step 8
Step 9
Establish Variable Relationship
Design Operating Limits
I
Step 10 Validate Measurement System for ‘X’
Step 11
Step 12
Verify Process Improvement
Institutionalize New Capability
C
GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 76 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd
Introduction - MEASURE
■ A robust measurement system forms the basis of any Six Sigma project
Step 3 of DMAIC
Table Phone
Shadow
Pencil stand
Paper
Pad
Wire
Ring Pens
Recall..One
picture is
better than
1000 words
Process Mapping is a graphic display of steps & activities that constitute a process
■ Enables seeing that changes are not made in a vacuum and will carry through,
affecting the entire process down the line
■ Helps re-examine (if needed) the scope and charter of your project
despatch
as reject
no
baking top
additional additional hot air squeezing water hot air squeezin water baking primer
as per coating additional additional ? no
inspection drying by rubber quenching drying g by as per coating
cold air cold air thickness w ft=55-65 cold air quenching cold air end
temp-100 - roll temp=100 w ft-15-18 Paint
drying drying pmt-224 visco-58-65 drying (r.t.) rubber thickness drying
110 Deg C Deg C visc-30 sec peel off
2 burner roll pmt-216
yes
continuous squeezin hot squeezin cold (room squeezin wet squeezin chrom ating coating baking
hot air water hot air
degreas ing g by water g by g by scrubbing on back side as per g.p.
uncoiling of temp) g by concn- 0.8 - drying quenching drying
rubber rins ing rubber rubber 30 w ft thickness complaint
coil concn-0.3-0.4 water rinsing by scoth rubber 1.2 tem p-100 temp -90-
tem p=80 Deg C visco-30 -35 PMT -224 raising by
tem p-80 Deg roll roll roll bright roll Ph-1.2-2.0 Deg C 100 Deg C
sec
customer
START
2 stage
POINT testing of ph , concn. , squeezing
squeezing by
temp, by rubber
rubber roll visit to
of water , degreasing roll & CPC
customer for
and chromating assesment
replacement /
rework end
■ Teams can use this structure for processes that move across functions
Step
Function 1 Step 5
4
Step 6 Step 7
Function 4
■ The pain areas (identified at the time of project selection) must be within the
selected scope
■ Guard against analyzing the process at this stage, just map as-it-is
■ Take care of Parallel & Sequential activities for Cycle time reduction projects
■ Defects are observed / counted in the output characteristic of a unit (denoted as ’Y’)
P
Process
S I 1 2 5
O C
Suppliers Inputs Outputs Customers
4
Process Boundary
■ Other examples
■ An Operational Definition is a precise description that tells how to get a value for the
characteristic you are trying to measure. It includes what something is and how to
measure it
■ Purpose:
✛ Removes ambiguity – common understanding of defect definition
■ I’ve reduce patient’s waiting time…at which stage or what is the start & end point
■ Improvement can only occur if we understand where we are & where to go, supported
by a measurement system that validates both situations
■ Have you reached where you intended to? -- only data answers that question
■ It’s rightly said…If you can’t Measure it, you can’t improve it.
✛ Data that can take a limited number of values (Pass / Fail, OK / Not OK, Win / Loss)
✛ Examples
✷ Days in a week
■ Continuous Data
✛ Data that be expressed in either fractions or whole numbers
✛ Examples
✷ Yield of a process
✷ Height of a person
■ Spread / Dispersion
■ Shape
Y1 + Y2 + Y3 + ………. + Yn
Y= Where n = number of data points
n
■ Mode
■ Median
✛ Median is the middle data point of a data set arranged in an ascending / descending order
Average
■ Range
✛ Range is the difference between the maximum & minimum data point
✛ Variance & standard deviation measure how individual data points are spread around mean
( Y1 - Y )2 + ( Y2 – Y )2 + ……. + ( Yn – Y )2
Variance = s2 =
(n–1)
Standard Deviation = s = s2
Given below is the sample data on Customer complaint closure time in hrs.
Compute the Mean & Standard Deviation for each quarter.
Quarter 1 Quarter 2
A C
■ Mean of Curve ‘A’ is more representative of its data set as compared to Curves ‘B’ & ‘C’
■ Spread outside the specifications may result in defects; this information is not
provided by mean
TAP EXP
✛ It’s a data set in which spread of the data set around its mean is identical
Mean,
✛ For such a data set - mean = mode = median
Mode,
Median
■ Asymmetric Data set
Positive / Right skewed Negative / Left skewed
- high spread on the right side of the mean - high spread on the left
side of the mean
Median Median
■ Large sample sizes are required to measure higher Sigma multiples for discrete data
■ Opportunities for error in a process is the number of steps / tasks / actions in the
process, where there is a possibility of committing an error, that may result in a defect
■ This is because data, on whether or not a defect is created, is discrete type (yes / no)
Enter
Call Yes
Customer calls customer details
Answered?
in the system
No
Deliver &
Despatch collect money,
order if non-credit card
customer
Defect definition is: Pizza delivered to customer, but payment not made.
■ Historical data may have measurement errors like operational definition issues,
which can lead to wrong projection of the Baseline
Sampling
Sample
Population
✛ All items in the population have an equal chance of being chosen in the sample
✛ Example: A customer satisfaction survey team picking the customers to be contacted at random
✛ Example: A forest ranger may decide on a sample of north-west area to cut lumber
■ Business criteria to select a sample size include cost, time & effort. Business
recommends small sample size
■ Statistical criteria ask higher sample size, as, Higher the sample size, better the
Sample size
calculator
■ We know that the population standard deviation (from past data) for customer
complaint closure time is 25 hrs. Now, we want to collect a sample that can
estimate the average complaint closure time within ± 5 hrs tolerance with 99%
confidence. What should be the sample size?
2
= 5 Z 99.5 * 25
n=
σ = 25 5
α = 0.01
Sample Size
So, sample size n = [ (2.58 * 25) / 5 ]
= 166.4
■ A country preacher was walking the back-road near a church. He became thirsty so
decided to stop at a little cottage and ask for something to drink. The lady of the house
invited him in and in addition to something to drink, she served him a bowl of soup by the
fire. There was a small pig running around the kitchen. The pig was constantly running up
to the visitor and giving him a great deal of attention. The visiting pastor commented that
he had never seen a pig this friendly. The housewife replied: "Ah, he's not that friendly.
Actual
Process Measurement
Variation Variation
Reproducibility
Precission &
Accuracy
Accuracy Repeatability Stability Linearity
D
Diffe
iffere
rencceele
leaaddss
to
toR
Reeppro
rodduccib
ibility
ility
1 2 1 2 1 2
Trial
3 4 3 4 3 4
Reading
#1 5 6 5 6 5 6
D
Diffe
iffere
rennce
cele
leaaddsto
to
SixParts/ Conditions
R
Reeppeeaata
tabbility
ility
1 2 1 2 1 2
Trial
3 4 3 4 3 4
Reading
#2 5 6 5 6 5 6
A B C
■ ANOVA not only separates the equipment & operator variation, but also elaborates
on combined effect of operator & part Tool
■ ANOVA uses the ‘standard deviation’ instead of ‘range’, & hence gives a better
estimate of the measurement system variation
1 1 1 475
1 2 1 442
1 3 1 489
1 1 2 479
1 2 2 462
1 3 2 463
2 1 1 369
2 2 1 326
2 3 1 302
2 1 2 368
2 2 2 328
2 3 2 318
3 1 1 398
GRR Water Soluble
3 2 1 405
Zinc in HBF Cake.
3 3 1 410
3 1 2 415
3 2 2 402
3 3 2 421
■ STAT > Quality Tools > Gage R&R Study (Crossed) > Options
50 400
0 300
20 400
10 R=1 1 .1 1
0 L CL =0 300
0 Operator 1 2 3
UCL =4 2 4 .9 3
Average
400 M e a n =4 0 4 400
L CL =3 8 3 .1
300 300
0 Part 1 2 3
■ If none of the above criteria is met, do not proceed to the next step
Step 0
Step 1
Establish CTQ Characteristics
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Establish Performance Parameters
Validate Measurement System for ‘Y’ M
Step 4 Establish Process Baseline
Step 5
Step 6
Define Performance Goals
Identify Variation Sources
A
Step 7 Explore Potential Causes
Step 8
Step 9
Establish Variable Relationship
Design Operating Limits
I
Step 10 Validate Measurement System for ‘X’
Step 11
Step 12
Verify Process Improvement
Institutionalize New Capability
C
GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 140 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd
Deliverables of Step 4
Defects
■ A project team wants to reduce the total waiting time taken in hospital (from reception
to discharge). Team has randomly collected the following data of last 3 weeks for the
waiting time for few patients/ customers :--
USL decided by Management based on other hospitals study is decided at 60 Minutes max.
USL: Upper Specification Limit for a Performance Standard. Anything above this is a defect.
■ That means I would count the number of patients who had to wait more than 60
minutes
Customer 1 5 Customer 11 50 Customer 21 49
Customer 2 49 Customer 12 48 Customer 22 48
Customer 3 48 Customer 13 36 Customer 23 39
Customer 4 53 Customer 14 50 Customer 24 49
Customer 5 58 Customer 15 50 Customer 25 34
Customer 6 50 Customer 16 62 Customer 26 33
Customer 7 46 Customer 17 45 Customer 27 57
Customer 8 50 Customer 18 47 Customer 28 48
Customer 9 49 Customer 19 51 Customer 29 47
Customer 10 47 Customer 20 44 Customer 30 390
■ Let’s assume that the account opening process has 4 opportunities for error, so DPO=
DPU/OFE= 0.067/4 = 0.016667
■ Every DPMO value relates to a particular Sigma Multiple or ZST value. In this case, this
process is working at 3.63 Sigma multiple
■ The same can be calculated by Given Excel template also.
ZST ZST
Z Calculation Template
■ Let’s treat the data of the Hospital waiting Time as Continuous and calculate Base Line
Sigma
Select Graphical
Summary
Data to be entered
in columns
Select Column C1
where data is
entered
■ USL : 60 Minutes
■ This process is working at 1.54 Sigma multiple ( ZST = 1.54, or DPMO = 484750).
■ Can you notice the difference in ZST & DPMO values by treating the same data in
Z calculation template
■ The DPMO & ZST value depends on a symmetrical probability distribution, known as
Normal Distribution.
■ If the data points are not following the Normal Distribution, we can’t predict
correctly ZST & DPMO of the process by Mean & Std deviation, using the same
Excel template
■ So, it is must to understand the Normal Distribution & the test of Normality before
establishing the Baseline of the process
Normal Distribution
Distribution. E.g;
deviation
- ∞ + ∞
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
- ∞ + ∞
µ
- 1σ + 1σ
68.26%
- 2σ + 2σ
95.46%
- 3σ + 3σ
99.73%
- 4σ + 4σ
99.9937%
- 5σ + 5σ
99.99943%
- 6σ + 6σ
99.999998%
250 300
300 - 250
Z= = 2.17
23
Thus, the probability that the Helpdesk may solve problem between 0 & 300 is 98.5%
& thus, chance of IT team taking more than 300 mins is 1.5%
■ ABC courier company promises overnight deliveries to its customers. However, there
have been several customer complaints regarding late deliveries. The operations
manager wants to re-look at the feasibility of delivering overnight (within 8 hours). He
studied the past trend & found that delivery time had a mean of 7 hours with a standard
deviation of 3 hours.
c. How much is the probability that deliveries could be made within 3-5 hours?
Mean &
Std Dev.
This will
store the
results.
hrs probability
8 0.630559
3 0.091211
5 0.252493
Answers:
P( X <= x ) x
0.9950 14.7275
Minitab Command:
Stat - Basic Statistics – Graphical summary (Se Anderson- Darling Test results)
Summary for waiting time
Anderson-Darling Normality Test
A-Squared 0.66
P-V alue 0.025
Mean 38.750
StDev 22.603
Variance 510.917
Skewness -1.94435
Kurtosis 3.82913
N 4
Minimum 5.000
1st Quartile 15.750
Median 48.500
3rd Q uartile 52.000
10 20 30 40 50 Maximum 53.000
95% Confidence I nterval for Mean
2.783 74.717 P-value > 0.05 indicates data is normal.
95% Confidence I nterval for Median
Here, p-value is less than 0.05, so data is
5.000 53.000
95% Confidence I nterval for StDev non-normal
95% Confidence I ntervals
12.805 84.278
Mean
Median
0 20 40 60 80
■ In such cases, we do the data analysis by the Tools like Histogram, control charts, etc. Tool
■ Box Cox Transformation & CLT are not in the GB trg scope. Your BB will support
Transformations
GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 168 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd
Appendix 1 – Normal Distribution Table
Z
Area Below +ZLT
Step 0
Step 1
Establish CTQ Characteristics
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Establish Performance Parameters
Validate Measurement System for ‘Y’ M
Step 4 Establish Process Baseline
Step 5
Step 6
Define Performance Goals
Identify Variation Sources
A
Step 7 Explore Potential Causes
Step 8
Step 9
Establish Variable Relationship
Design Operating Limits
I
Step 10 Validate Measurement System for ‘X’
Step 11
Step 12
Verify Process Improvement
Institutionalize New Capability
C
GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 172 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd
Improvement Paths in Process Sigma Multiple
■ A process cycle time typically is made up of value & non-value added activities
■ Time for all value added activities is considered as “Minimum cycle time”, even that
can be reduced in certain cases
5 12 3 17 4 15 4
Process Baseline V NV NV NV V V NV
5 4 15
Minimum Cycle
Time V V V
5 4 15
Process Entitlement V B B V B V
■ Teams can use this structure for processes that move across functions
Step
Function 1 Step 5
4
Step 6 Step 7
Function 4
Benchmarking
■ Types of benchmarking
✛ Internal
✛ Functional
✛ Competitive
■ Outside-in thinking
■ Internal
✛ Yields good results for a diversified organization
✛ Data is easier to collect
✛ Issues of internal bias & limited focus
■ Functional
✛ Regardless of industry
✛ Needs customization
✛ Requires more effort
■ Competitive
✛ Comparable practices
✛ Direct impact on business
✛ Easier buy-in
✛ Data is difficult to collect
■ Develop recommendations
■ RADAR charts
Logistics
Manufacturing Sourcing
Company A 0
Inventory 6 Warehousing
Forecasting
■ If the existing process has to be improved, then the improvement goal should be
chosen only after proving statistically that it can be achieved only due to change,
& not by chance , I.e; the probability of achieving the goal with the current process
should be very low (generally <5%)
■ In Minitab, Graphical summary command is used to identify the right target, that is
outside of 95% probability band of current data set.(Target can be set on mean as well
as std deviation)
Summary for waiting time
Anderson-Darling Normality Test
A-Squared 0.66
P-V alue 0.025
Mean 38.750
StDev 22.603
Variance 510.917
Skewness
Kurtosis
-1.94435
3.82913
Any value, outside
N 4
this band will be a
Minimum 5.000
1st Quartile
Median
15.750
48.500
good target, as the
10 20 30 40 50
3rd Q uartile
Maximum
52.000
53.000
chances of getting
95% Confidence I nterval for Mean
2.783 74.717
it by current
95% Confidence I nterval for Median process is <5%
5.000 53.000
95% Confidence I nterval for StDev
95% Confidence I ntervals
12.805 84.278
Mean
Median
0 20 40 60 80
■ Sometimes, at this step, project teams may set aggressive targets to justify the project selection
■ However, one must understand that such steps may result in abandoning the project half-way
■ Worst still, it sets a bad precedence & de-motivates the team members
■ Knowledge about the true behavior of the process is limited at the time of project selection &
hence, benefits expected may be grossly approximated
■ After setting the improvement target, project team must arrive at an accurate estimate of benefits
with Finance & take the sign-off from Champion to proceed
■ Sometimes, project teams may need to re-visit step 5.2 depending upon the Champion’s
expectations
Step 0
Step 1
Establish CTQ Characteristics
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Establish Performance Parameters
Validate Measurement System for ‘Y’ M
Step 4 Establish Process Baseline
Step 5
Step 6
Define Performance Goals
Identify Variation Sources
A
Step 7 Explore Potential Causes
Step 8
Step 9
Establish Variable Relationship
Design Operating Limits
I
Step 10 Validate Measurement System for ‘X’
Step 11
Step 12
Verify Process Improvement
Institutionalize New Capability
C
GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 189 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd
Means & Ends of a Process
■ In other words, defect observed in output ‘Y’ is due to some X’s not being controlled
■ In this step, we identify the factors that contribute to variation in the process output ‘Y’
■ Another objective of this step is to separate the vital few X’s from trivial many
Y X
Dependent Independent
Effect Cause
Symptom Problem
Monitor Control
✛ Even though it provides a short-list, it’s not an effective prioritization tool because short-listing
is not done on any mathematical basis
■ Use of Process mapping requires studying the micro as-is process mapped in step 2
earlier & walking through it
■ Let’s assume that number of members in the focus group is 5 & they generate 20 X’s
■ Take 50% of 60, i.e. 30 & list top X’s whose vote count adds upto 30
■ Give each member 4 votes (50% of ideas short-listed in the previous step) & repeat
the exercise of casting votes upto this step
■ Below table illustrates the number of group members & total ideas (X’s) generated
■ Now each member gives votes to ideas (maximum one vote to each idea) & below is
the vote distribution for ideas
■ Top ideas whose vote count adds upto 32 are as below (30 is not possible), there are
7 such ideas
■ Give each member 4 votes (round off 50% of 7 to next higher integer) & ask them to distribute
these 4 votes among these 7 ideas. Below could be the distribution in this fresh round of voting
■ All ideas are important, don’t out rightly reject any idea
■ To ensure this, project teams could use the round-robin method of idea generation
■ It works on the principal of asking ‘why’ to each cause till you reach the ‘root cause’
■ For example, if one of the problem areas identified in the pizza delivery process
Fishbone
was ‘Wrong customer details’ for the defect of ‘Order not paid for’, a fishbone
can be prepared on identifying the root cause for this problem
Wrong Customer
Backbone Details
No credit card verification
Root-cause 1
Foul order No cross-check
Root-cause 2
■ It’s difficult to judge how many levels one needs to explore in a fishbone
■ Sometimes project teams may hit the root-cause at multi-voting / process mapping
level, but they may do a further root-cause for the sake of it
■ In such cases, it is always a good idea to see if there is further scope for exploring by
asking ‘why’
■ Always remember that we are trying to identify controllable X’s, what can not
be controlled – can not be a root-cause
■ One must be able to see the effect on ‘Y’ when values / levels of root-causes are
changed
■ Pareto diagram works on the 80:20 rule of 20% causes contributing to 80% of defects
■ Co-relation & Regression help in identifying the movement of continuous ‘Y’ with
respect to continuous ‘X’
■ ANOVA & Chi-square help in identifying the movement of continuous / discrete ‘Y’
with respect to discrete ‘X’
■ Failure Mode & Effect Analysis (FMEA) identifies the process failure modes &
assigns a number to it that helps to prioritize the actionables
■ A graphical tool for ranking causes form most significant (Vital Few) to least significant (Trivial many).
■ Based on Pareto principle, which was first defined by J.M Juran in 1950. Pareto principle was made after 19th Tool
century Italian economist V. Pareto (1897). Most effects come from relatively few causes. Also known as
80:20 Principle.
■ Pareto diagram indicates which area should be taken up first in eliminating defects and improving operations.
Pareto
■ He has identified following root causes
✛ Woke up late
✛ Clothes not ready
✛ Breakfast not ready
✛ Bus not coming on time
✛ Traffic jam
✛ Bus waiting for other employees
■ He collects data on how frequent each of the root cause is & constructs a Pareto
70 100
60
80
50
Percent
60
Count
40
30 40
20
20
10
0 0
e
im y ady i ng
o nt ead l at
e j am re it
i ng tr up ic ot wa
n o aff tn Bus
com he
s oke Tr a s
t ot W kf
no Cl ea
s Br
Bu
Count 25 18 15 6 5 2
Percent 35.2 25.4 21.1 8.5 7.0 2.8
Cum % 35.2 60.6 81.7 90.1 97.2 100.0
■ Depending upon the data characteristics of Y & X, we can choose the appropriate tool
Correlation
Continuous & ANOVA
Regression
Y
Identify
opportunities for
Discrete converting ‘Y’ Chi-square
into a continuous
one or use FMEA
Continuous Discrete
X
Correlation
✛ Positive value of ‘r’ means direction of movement in both variables is same
✛ Negative value of ‘r’ means direction of movement in both variables is inverse
✛ Zero value of ‘r’ means no correlation between the two variables
■ Higher the value of ‘r’, stronger the correlation between ‘Y’ & ‘X‘
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 6 12 0 6 12
8 10
6 8
6
4
4
2 2
0 0
0 6 12 0 6 12
r = 0.95 r = – 0.95
■ Correlation measures the linear association between the output (Y) and one
input variable (X) only
■ While correlation tells us only about the direction of movement, it does not
throw much light on degree of movement in one variable with respect to Tool
movement in another
■ Regression of ‘Y’ on ‘X’ results in a transfer function equation that can be used to
predict the value of ‘Y’ for given values of ‘X’
Y = f(X)
Regression
■ ‘Y’ can be regressed on one or more X’s simultaneously
✛ Simple linear regression is for one X
✛ Multiple linear regression is for more than one X’s
■ It is similar to Two-way ANOVA we have discussed in step 5, except for the difference
that X’s used in ANOVA were discrete
■ The approach is similar & a linear multiple regression equation looks as follows:
■ Suppose we are trying to predict rent of an apartment based on the size of the
apartment & its distance from the main commercial area. We gather the following
information as below. If you are looking for a two-bedroom apartment 2 miles from the
main area, what rent should you expect to pay?
Y X1 X2
■ For a 2 bedroom apartment 2 miles away from main area, expected rent could be INR
3614 per month
GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 215 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd
Points to Remember in Regression
✛ Project teams get tempted to extrapolate the results beyond the range of collected data. In
one of the previous examples, higher R&D expenditures may not see same
increase in
profits, & hence, the regression equation between profit & R&D expense may
change
Range 1 Range 2
Profit
R&D Expense
Population Incidents
of Crime
Population
✛ That means a model with ‘Y’ on any of these X’s may be good, but not when both the X’s are
included in the model
✛ If Xs chosen in the model are not the ‘real’ ones – you may need to look at residual plots
✛ If X’s have interactions
■ Regression results that defy theory / conventional logic, should be re-validated with
DOE in next phase of IMPROVE
■ Below are several X’s identified for runs scored by Indian cricket team while batting
first. Run regression & decide which X’s would you choose for further study of
causation?
ANOVA
GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 221 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd
ANOVA Example W/S Zn ANOVA
■ A restaurant puts great emphasis on customer satisfaction. For some weeks, the
ratings seemed to suffer & the manager tried to identify the factors that could be
causing this. He chooses two of the potential discrete factors as ‘team’ that serves the
customer & ‘place of sitting’ in terms of outside or inside. Which factor is vital?
Source DF SS MS F P
Team 1 3.281 3.281 17.38 0.001
Place 1 0.013 0.013 0.07 0.800
Interaction 1 0.544 0.544 2.88 0.109
Error 16 3.020 0.189
Total 19 6.857
■ Team that serves the food seems to be more important than place of sitting
■ In other words, two levels of the team, 1 & 2, are significantly different in their average ratings (between
'team' variation)
■ However, error is quite high (within ‘team’ variation) which implies that there are other factors
contributing to variation in ratings
■ While using two-way ANOVA, Minitab demands a balanced design between X's
■ GLM can also be used if there are more than two X's
sales figure advertisement free service sales representative sales figure advertisement free service sales representative
10 10 Y M 10 10 Y M
12 20 Y M 13 20 Y M
14 10 N M 12 10 N M
15 20 N M 14 20 N M
11 10 Y M 13 10 Y M
13 20 Y M 16 20 Y M
9 10 N M 8 10 N M
12 20 N M 12 20 N M
17 10 Y F 18 10 Y F
22 20 Y F 23 20 Y F
24 10 N F 19 10 N F
28 20 N F 22 20 N F
18 10 Y F 18 10 Y F
25 20 Y F 20 20 Y F
22 10 N F 22 10 N F
24 20 N F 24 20 N F
General Linear Model: sales figure versus advertisemen, free service, ...
■ In the previous example of the satisfaction ratings of the customers, the root cause may
be that two teams are serving different cuisines which are prepared by two different
chefs. Hence, satisfaction ratings for two teams are just an indicator of the variation. It
may not mean that team 2 is more efficient than team 1 in terms of serving food.
■ When you use multiple X’s in ANOVA, they have to be mutually independent
■ Usually, it is used to decide upon new policy decisions & new process steps while
exploring their relationship with the defect definition
■ A raw material sourcing team is evaluating the relationship of on time supplies with the
supplier used. It collects data on two suppliers as follows. Should they switch
completely to supplier 2 to improve the supplies?
■ Using Minitab, we get the p-value of 0.036 that says that the difference is significant
■ However, the root cause may be that supplier 2 uses a better transporter, & hence it
may be worthwhile to ask supplier 1 to use the same transporter for your supplies
■ Typically, FMEA is applied on the output of root-cause analysis, & is a better tool for
FMEA
focus / prioritization as compared to multi-voting
Effect
Severity
Control
Detectability
■ Rating Scale:
■ Rating Scale:
■ Rating Scale:
FMEA Table
■ Usually, FMEA is used to prioritize root-causes for discrete defect definitions on ‘Y’
where Regression / ANOVA are not possible
■ Typically, final part of the FMEA table in terms of ‘recommended actions’ & improved
SOD rating gets filled during IMPROVE & CONTROL phases
■ New SOD ratings shall be given only at the time of project closure when counter-
measures would have been implemented & effect seen on “failure mode”
■ Even though, project teams may identify potential X’s using Brainstorming / Fishbone,
& use Regression / ANOVA / Chi-square to prioritize potential X’s, they may still end
up with X’s that explain the variation in ‘Y’, but do not really cause that variation
■ The real output of this step is to short-list potential X’s that may have a causal
relationship with ‘Y’, because a relationship between ‘Y’ & ‘X’ is a necessary but not
sufficient condition for cause & effect
■ If an ‘X’ is not a significant factor for ‘Y’, it should not be explored further, it is one of
those trivial many X’s project team would have identified
■ A good job done in this step reduces the work in further steps
■ We check for causation in the first step of Improve module through experimentation
techniques
■ Target Process Sigma multiple / DPMO / Mean / Variance with statistical significance
Tollgate - Analyze
Step 0
Step 1
Establish CTQ Characteristics
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Establish Performance Parameters
Validate Measurement System for ‘Y’ M
Step 4 Establish Process Baseline
Step 5
Step 6
Define Performance Goals
Identify Variation Sources
A
Step 7 Explore Potential Causes
Step 8
Step 9
Establish Variable Relationship
Design Operating Limits
I
Step 10 Validate Measurement System for ‘X’
Step 11
Step 12
Verify Process Improvement
Institutionalize New Capability
C
GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 242 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd
Explore Potential X’s for Causation
FMEA
x1 x7 = 38%
x2 x6 = 27% Vital X’s
x3 x2 = 12%
x4
x5 Exploration of x9 = 4%
the y-x
x6 x10 = 4%
relationship
x7 x5 = 2%
Trivial X’s σ error
x8 x1
x9 x3
x10 x4
x11 x8 = 13%
Fishbone x12 x11
x12
■ Step 7 provides tools to explore and uncover the vital X’s and how much impact each
X has on the response Y.
■ As against historical data in step 6, step 7 uses proactively collected information , this helps in
■ In order to demonstrate definite improvement in the process, project teams must use a tool which
✛ is structured
✛ is proactive towards data collection
✛ is statistically capable
✛ can quantify the transfer function
✛ Can segregate the vital few X’s
■ Regression also gives a transfer function, However, since regression was performed on
historical data in step 6 & not on all vital X’s together, transfer functions obtained in
step 6 were only used to see the extent of relationship between ‘Y’ & a potential ‘X’
■ In this step, we perform DOE to further confirm the statistical relevance of only those
vital X’s (preferably) that were short-listed in step 6
■ Definition
Tool
✛ Experimental Design is a structured proactive process for investigating the
relationship between input and output factors. Multiple input factors are considered
and
■ Origin
■ Interaction is defined as the effect of one factor ‘X1’ on the ‘Y’ being dependent on which
level of another factor ‘X2’ is chosen
✛ For example, al low speeds, fuel efficiency may not get affected by low coolant level. But, at
high speeds, if coolant is low, fuel efficiency may come down drastically
DOE
Response
Factors
Levels
Design
■ Response
✛ Response is the outcome of the experiment conducted at a combination of factors at given
levels. The response is the ‘Y’ we intend to improve
■ Factors
✛ A factor is one of the controlled or uncontrolled variables whose influence upon the response
is being studied in the experiment. Factors are also known as the X’s
✛ A factor may also be Discrete/ qualitative, e.g., different machines, different doctors, different
■ Levels
✛ The “levels” of a factor are the values of the factor being examined in the experiment. For
quantitative factors, each chosen value becomes a level, e.g., if the experiment is to be
conducted at two different temperatures, then the factor ‘temperature’ has two “levels” –
say HOT & COLD.
✛ In a qualitative factor, the single factor “cleanliness” may have two levels: CLEAN & NOT
CLEAN
■ Experiment Design
✛ The formal plan for conducting the experiment is called the “experiment design” (also the
“experiment pattern”)
✛ It includes the choices of the responses, factors, levels, blocks, and treatments and the use
of certain tools called planned grouping, randomization, replication
Screening
& Optimization
Characterization
Full Factorial
Multi-level Experiments
2 Factorial
K
Composite Designs
Fractional Factorial
Step 7 Step 8
✛ All possible combinations of the levels of all factors are studied. For example, a design with 3
factors at 3 levels would require 27 runs
■ 2K Factorial Designs
✛ In most preliminary studies, only 2 levels are used for each of the ‘K’ factors
✛ No. of Experiments=(Levels)FACTORS
High
Graphical Illustration B
Low
Low A High
Trial A B Response
1 - - ?
Tabular Illustration
2 + - ?
3 - + ?
4 + + ?
High
Graphical Illustration B
High
Low
Low High C
A Low
Trial A B C
1 - - -
2 + - -
3 - + -
4 + + -
Tabular Illustration
5 - - +
6 + - +
7 - + +
8 + + +
■ Repetition
✛ This is running the experiment twice on each trial combination, without changing the setting,
i.e. no other run in between
■ Replication
✛ This is running the experiment twice on each trial combination, but with a change of setting,
i.e. some other run in between
■ Randomization
✛ Runs are made in random order as opposed to a standard order to account for lurking
variables that change over time. Aim is to make your DOE more robust.
■ A car owner wants to maximize his fuel efficiency. He has selected some X’s that he
thinks could be important & fixed their levels for the experimentation:--
■ Deliverables
5 0.2 50 3 HP 10.93
18 0.5 50 2 HP 14.65
28 0.5 80 2 IBP 3.68
16 0.5 80 3 IBP 3.74
4 0.5 80 2 HP 3.74
30 0.5 50 3 IBP 14.66
20 0.5 80 2 HP 3.74
15 0.2 80 3 IBP 5.85
6 0.5 50 3 HP 14.65
31 0.2 80 3 IBP 5.80
2 0.5 50 2 HP 14.61
8 0.5 80 3 HP 3.71
24 0.5 80 3 HP 3.71
26 0.5 50 2 IBP 14.70
25 0.2 50 2 IBP 10.95
32 0.5 80 3 IBP 3.67
11 0.2 80 2 IBP 5.78
29 0.2 50 3 IBP 10.89
14 0.5 50 3 IBP 14.67
22 0.5 50 3 HP 14.70
27 0.2 80 2 IBP 5.82
19 0.2 80 2 HP 5.76
7 0.2 80 3 HP 5.83
1 0.2 50 2 HP 10.87
23 0.2 80 3 HP 5.76
21 0.2 50 3 HP 10.86
13 0.2 50 3 IBP 10.88
10 0.5 50 2 IBP 14.66
9 0.2 50 2 IBP 10.94
17 0.2 50 2 HP 10.88
12 0.5 80 2 IBP 3.65
3 0.2 80 2 HP 5.77
■ Historical data is a useful source of information for characterizing which input factors (X’s)
affect the CTQ’s. There are several issues associated with the use of historical data,
however if not accounted for, analysis of the data can lead to misleading if not erroneous
results. One issue is causality. One of the factors may be thought to be vital however if
all of the other X’s are not held constant or if historical information is not available on
these other settings, then it may not be clear which ‘X’ truly has the causal impact on ‘Y’.
A second issue is that historical data rarely covers the breadth of possibilities suggested
in a designed experiment
■ A method which helps to minimize the impact of the above two negative issues, while still
using historical data is called Data Mining. The first step in data mining is to formulate a
designed experiment and list the associated desired trial combinations. The historical
data list is then mined to find the data points that (nearly) correspond to the trials in the
proposed experiment. Only these data points are then used as responses in the mining
experiment, and analysis follows in the usual manner
Step 0
Step 1
Establish CTQ Characteristics
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Establish Performance Parameters
Validate Measurement System for ‘Y’ M
Step 4 Establish Process Baseline
Step 5
Step 6
Define Performance Goals
Identify Variation Sources
A
Step 7 Explore Potential Causes
Step 8
Step 9
Establish Variable Relationship
Design Operating Limits
I
Step 10 Validate Measurement System for ‘X’
Step 11
Step 12
Verify Process Improvement
Institutionalize New Capability
C
GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 272 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd
Key Concepts
■ Step 8 attempts to establish the levels of these X’s that provide the desired
improvement in ‘Y’
■ For a target value of ‘Y’, the required level of ‘X’ can be determined analytically
■ Focus of step 8 is on optimization experiments. After choosing the level of ‘X’ (to give
the target value of ‘Y’), the process is checked to affirm the result
■ Even when a transfer function is well-defined, there are typically still trivial X’s affecting
the process. The aggregate level of their effect should be determined
✛ Confirm results
✛ Estimate noise levels of trivial X’s
Simplex Method
80
50
■ 3 level optimization – find the best place to operate when you are already in
the right area
Screening
Performance DOE
goal on ‘Y’
(2K, 2K-P )
■ Set
✛ the vital X’s at their optimum level
✛ the trivial X’s at their most favorable level
■ Verify
✛ the predicted level of Y
✛ the noise/error in the process
■ Compute
✛ the new capability level
Y = f (X)
USL
LSL
LOL UOL
X
XL XU
XT
Y = 20 + 2X
USL = 90
LSL = 45
X
XLSL XT XUSL
Y = f (X)
USL
LSL
X
XL XLOL XUOL XU
X1
Y2
X1
■ If there is no overlapping region, all CTQ’s can not be fulfilled & project team should
seek help from BB & Champion to prioritize
■ Counter Measure Matrix is used to arrive at action to be taken on a root cause that
would lead to the desired result Tool
■ If there are more than one counter-measure for a root cause, then the counter
measure is prioritized using three parameters
Counter-Measure Matrix
■ Each counter-measure is given a rating on a scale of 1-7 (higher the better) & overall
score is calculated by multiplying the 3 ratings, one with the best score is chosen
EXP
No
Enter
Call Yes
Customer calls customer details
Answered?
in the system
No
Deliver &
Confirm
Verify Despatch collect money,
all details
with bank order if non-credit card
again
customer
■ Once the best settings / operating limits are determined, it may be worthwhile to have a
re-look at the process
■ New operating limits / settings may need some extra steps, some steps to be scrapped,
or some steps to be performed differently
Tollgate- Improve
Step 0
Step 1
Establish CTQ Characteristics
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Establish Performance Parameters
Validate Measurement System for ‘Y’ M
Step 4 Establish Process Baseline
Step 5
Step 6
Define Performance Goals
Identify Variation Sources
A
Step 7 Explore Potential Causes
Step 8
Step 9
Establish Variable Relationship
Design Operating Limits
I
Step 10 Validate Measurement System for ‘X’
Step 11
Step 12
Verify Process Improvement
Institutionalize New Capability
C
GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 296 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd
10.1 Perform GRR Study
Y = f (X)
USL
LSL
X
XL XLOL XUOL XU
11.2 Prepare action plan to maintain X’s that are varying away from settings
■ So far, we have identified the best settings for each of the vital ‘X’
■ The key now is to ensure that the X’s don’t vary away from the targeted setting
■ Process control is a crucial tool in ensuring that this Six Sigma project delivers lasting
benefits
Prevention
Prevention &
Detection
Mistake-Proofing
✛ Look for cutting unproductive time to foster creativity
■ Provide guidelines
✛ Check-lists
✛ SOP’s
✛ Templates
■ Use visuals
✛ Color-codes
✛ Shapes
1. Car owners complain that they often forget if the fuel tank hole is on the left or right side of the car.
2. A cold drink manufacturer wants to ensure that all bottles are filled with exactly the same quantity.
3. Commuters complain that ‘free left/ right’ is always blocked by the vehicles that have to go straight.
4. HR team of a company has found that employees only punch-in & don’t punch-out.
5. Bank customers complain that they find it difficult to keep track of cheques issued by them.
6. Administration team of a company finds that employees don’t switch-off lights while leaving.
7. A FMCG company has found that retailers don’t disburse the freebies to customers as due.
8. Credit card customers complain that they end up over-spending on their cards.
9. Subscribers to a cellular service company want to ensure they keep track of their missed calls even
after erasing from memory.
■ However, sometimes applying SPC to ‘Y’ can also be beneficial in detecting trends
■ About SPC
✛ Aids visual monitoring & controlling
✛ Depends heavily on data collection
■ Control charts are useful for tracking process statistics over time and detecting the
presence of special causes
■ A process is in control when most of the points fall within the bounds of the control
limits, and the points do not display any nonrandom patterns
CL
noi t ai r a V
es ua C no mmo C
LCL
0.135%
UCL = µ + 3σ
99.73% CL
LCL = µ - 3σ
0.135%
Out of control point
UCL
Excellent Work Change the transporter??
LCL
5. Two out of three successive points more than 2σ on the same side of the
centerline
6. Four out of five successive points beyond 1σ on the same side of the centerline
8. Eight points in a row with none between 1σ on either side of center line
Continuous Data
Discrete Data
Defectives Defects
P-chart U - chart
■ Temperature of the cleaning agent is a vital ‘X’ to successfully meet the requirements
of the cleaning efficiency. This is monitored periodically to keep it within desired
operating range.
Click on OK
Go to I-MR
options for
activating the all
tests
Click on OK
Click on tests
Click on OK
Click on tests
Click on OK
_
70 X=69.07
60
LCL=55.20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Observation
UCL=17.04
16
Moving Range
12
8
__
MR=5.21
4
0 LCL=0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Observation
■ Let’s take data of the previous example only. Assume that the data on temperature was
collected using three different probes & below table gives three readings per hour, each
for one probe, over 5 hours (5 samples, each of sub-group size 3)
A new input is
now required –
sub-group size
A new input is
now required –
sub-group size
_
_
70
X=69.07
65
LCL=60.69
60
1 2 3 4 5
Sample
UCL=21.09
20
Sample Range
15
10 _
R=8.19
5
0 LCL=0
1 2 3 4 5
Sample
■ Let’s try control chart for the varying sub-group size, i.e. number of items tested for
defectiveness varies from hour-to-hour
Click on OK
Click on OK
0.3 UCL=0.2906
Proportion
0.2
_
0.1 P=0.0944
0.0 LCL=0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Sample
Tests performed with unequal sample sizes
GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 332 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd
U Control Chart
■ Let’s plot a U chart. Let’s assume that the customer service department administers
two questionnaires on employees, one with 10 & another with 20 questions, i.e. sub-
group size varies. They have to be answered in ‘yes / no’. Each question that is
answered in a ‘no’ is a defect.
0.3
Sample Count Per Unit
0.2
_
0.1 U=0.0955
0.0 LCL=0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sample
Tests performed with unequal sample sizes
GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 335 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd
Points to Remember in Control Charts
■ Do not apply SPC tools to processes that are known to be out on control
■ Do not ignore ‘out-of-control’ signals if your ‘Y’ is meeting the specifications & ‘X’ is
meeting the operating limits
■ It’s quite possible that ‘X’ is under control, but ‘Y’ is out-of-spec’s
✛ Define what corrective actions should be taken when ‘X’ is found to be out-of-control
✛ Define what ongoing actions would keep ‘X’ in control
✛ Should be developed by the project team jointly
■ Points to Remember
■ Improved performance / DPMO sustained for at least one-two months* with all vital X’s
under control
* Black Belts must use their discretion based upon the sample size available to statistically prove the
improvement
■ Control Plan
■ QFD / VOC
■ FMEA / Fishbone
■ Process Owners
■ SOP’s
■ Improved performance / DPMO sustained for at least one-two months1 with all vital X’s
under control
1 Black Belts must use their discretion based upon the sample size available to statistically prove the
improvement
Tool
Business
Business Statistical
Statistical Statistical
Statistical Business
Business
Problem
Problem Problem
Problem Solution
Solution Solution
Solution
PP RR OO JJ EE CC TT
THANKS
agarwal.sachin@wipro.com