PEREKONOMIAN

EMPAT SEKTOR
Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic Concepts

 Open and Closed Economies

 A closed economy is one that does not interact with
other economies in the world.
 There are no exports, no imports, and no capital flows.
 An open economy is one that interacts freely with other
economies around the world.
Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic Concepts

 An Open Economy
 An open economy interacts with other countries in two
ways.
 It buys and sells goods and services in world product
markets.
 It buys and sells capital assets in world financial markets.
THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS AND
CAPITAL

 An Open Economy
 The United States is a very large and open economy—
it imports and exports huge quantities of goods and
services.
 Over the past four decades, international trade and
finance have become increasingly important.
The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net
Exports
 Exports are goods and services that are produced
domestically and sold abroad.
 Imports are goods and services that are produced
abroad and sold domestically.
The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net
Exports
 Net exports (NX) are the value of a nation’s exports
minus the value of its imports.
 Net exports are also called the trade balance.
The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net
Exports
 A trade deficit is a situation in which net exports
(NX) are negative.
 Imports > Exports
 A trade surplus is a situation in which net exports
(NX) are positive.
 Exports > Imports
 Balanced trade refers to when net exports are zero
—exports and imports are exactly equal.
The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net
Exports
 Factors That Affect Net Exports
 The tastes of consumers for domestic and foreign
goods.
 The prices of goods at home and abroad.
 The exchange rates at which people can use domestic
currency to buy foreign currencies.
The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net
Exports
 Factors That Affect Net Exports
 The incomes of consumers at home and abroad.
 The costs of transporting goods from country to
country.
 The policies of the government toward international
trade.
 Figure 1 The Internationalization of the U.S. Economy

Percent
of GDP

15

Imports

10
Exports

0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital
Outflow

 Net capital outflow refers to the purchase of foreign

assets by domestic residents minus the purchase of
domestic assets by foreigners.
 A U.S. resident buys stock in the Toyota corporation
and a Mexican buys stock in the Ford Motor
corporation.
The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital
Outflow

 When a U.S. resident buys stock in Telmex, the

Mexican phone company, the purchase raises U.S.
net capital outflow.
 When a Japanese residents buys a bond issued by
the U.S. government, the purchase reduces the U.S.
net capital outflow.
The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital
Outflow

 Variables that Influence Net Capital Outflow

 The real interest rates being paid on foreign assets.
 The real interest rates being paid on domestic assets.
 The perceived economic and political risks of holding
assets abroad.
 The government policies that affect foreign ownership
of domestic assets.
The Equality of Net Exports and Net Capital
Outflow

 Net exports (NX) and net capital outflow (NCO) are

closely linked.
 For an economy as a whole, NX and NCO must
balance each other so that:
NCO = NX
 This holds true because every transaction that affects
one side must also affect the other side by the same
amount.
Saving, Investment, and Their Relationship to the
International Flows

 Net exports is a component of GDP:

Y = C + I + G + NX
 National saving is the income of the nation that is
left after paying for current consumption and
government purchases:
Y - C - G = I + NX
Saving, Investment, and Their Relationship to the
International Flows

 National saving (S) equals Y - C - G so:

S = I + NX
or

Saving =
Domestic + Net Capital
Investment Outflow
S = I + NCO
Figure 2 National Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign
Investment

(a) National Saving and Domestic Investment (as a percentage of GDP)

Percent
of GDP
20

Domestic investment
18

16

14

12 National saving

10
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Figure 2 National Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign
Investment

(b) Net Capital Outflow (as a percentage of GDP)

Percent
of GDP
4

2
Net capital
1 outflow

–1

–2

–3

–4
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE PRICES FOR INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS:
REAL AND NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES

 International transactions are influenced by

international prices.
 The two most important international prices are the
nominal exchange rate and the real exchange rate.
Nominal Exchange Rates

 The nominal exchange rate is the rate at which a

person can trade the currency of one country for the
currency of another.
Nominal Exchange Rates

 The nominal exchange rate is the rate at which a

person can trade the currency of one country for the
currency of another.
Nominal Exchange Rates

 The nominal exchange rate is expressed in two

ways:
 In units of foreign currency per one U.S. dollar.
 And in units of U.S. dollars per one unit of the foreign
currency.
Nominal Exchange Rates

 Assume the exchange rate between the Japanese

yen and U.S. dollar is 80 yen to one dollar.
 One U.S. dollar trades for 80 yen.
 One yen trades for 1/80 (= 0.0125) of a dollar.
Nominal Exchange Rates

 Appreciation refers to an increase in the value of a

currency as measured by the amount of foreign
currency it can buy.
 Depreciation refers to a decrease in the value of a
currency as measured by the amount of foreign
currency it can buy.
Nominal Exchange Rates

 If a dollar buys more foreign currency, there is an

appreciation of the dollar.
 If it buys less there is a depreciation of the dollar.
Real Exchange Rates

 The real exchange rate is the rate at which a person

can trade the goods and services of one country for
the goods and services of another.
Real Exchange Rates

 The real exchange rate compares the prices of

domestic goods and foreign goods in the domestic
economy.
 If a case of German beer is twice as expensive as
American beer, the real exchange rate is 1/2 case of
German beer per case of American beer.
Real Exchange Rates

 The real exchange rate depends on the nominal

exchange rate and the prices of goods in the two
countries measured in local currencies.
Real Exchange Rates

 The real exchange rate is a key determinant of how

much a country exports and imports.

N o m in a l e x c h a n g e ra te  D o m e s tic p ric e
R e a l e x c h a n g e ra te =
F o re ig n p ric e
Real Exchange Rates

 A depreciation (fall) in the U.S. real exchange rate

means that U.S. goods have become cheaper
relative to foreign goods.
 This encourages consumers both at home and
abroad to buy more U.S. goods and fewer goods
from other countries.
Real Exchange Rates

 As a result, U.S. exports rise, and U.S. imports fall,

and both of these changes raise U.S. net exports.
 Conversely, an appreciation in the U.S. real
exchange rate means that U.S. goods have become
more expensive compared to foreign goods, so U.S.
net exports fall.
A FIRST THEORY OF
EXCHANGE-RATE DETERMINATION: PURCHASING-
POWER PARITY

 The purchasing-power parity theory is the simplest

and most widely accepted theory explaining the
variation of currency exchange rates.
The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity

 Purchasing-power parity is a theory of exchange

rates whereby a unit of any given currency should
be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all
countries.
The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity

 According to the purchasing-power parity theory, a

unit of any given currency should be able to buy
the same quantity of goods in all countries.
Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity

 The theory of purchasing-power parity is based on

a principle called the law of one price.
 According to the law of one price, a good must sell for
the same price in all locations.
Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity

 If the law of one price were not true, unexploited

profit opportunities would exist.
 The process of taking advantage of differences in
prices in different markets is called arbitrage.
Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity

 If arbitrage occurs, eventually prices that differed

in two markets would necessarily converge.
 According to the theory of purchasing-power
parity, a currency must have the same purchasing
power in all countries and exchange rates move to
ensure that.
Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity

 If the purchasing power of the dollar is always the

same at home and abroad, then the exchange rate
cannot change.
 The nominal exchange rate between the currencies
of two countries must reflect the different price
levels in those countries.
Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity

 When the central bank prints large quantities of

money, the money loses value both in terms of the
goods and services it can buy and in terms of the
amount of other currencies it can buy.
 Figure 3 Money, Prices, and the Nominal Exchange Rate During
the German Hyperinflation

Indexes
(Jan. 1921 5 100)

1,000,000,000,000,000

Money supply
10,000,000,000

Price level
100,000

Exchange rate
.00001

.0000000001
1921 1922 1923 1924 1925
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Limitations of Purchasing-Power Parity

 Many goods are not easily traded or shipped from

one country to another.
 Tradable goods are not always perfect substitutes
when they are produced in different countries.
MODEL
PEREKONOMIAN 4
SEKTOR
 Equilibrium in the Goods Market
Y = C(Y-T) + I (Y, r) + G – ЄQ(Y, Є) + X (Y*, Є)
(+) (+, -) (+, -) (+, +)
Net exports defined as exports minus imports, X -
ЄQ
NX(Y,Y*, Є) ≡ X(Y*, Є) – ЄQ(Y, Є)

Y = C(Y-T) + I (Y, r) + G + NX(Y,Y*, Є)

(+) (+, -) (-,+, +)

43
 Four our purposes the essential implication of
equation :
1.An Increase in the real interest rate leads to a
decrease in the demand for domestics goods.
This leads, through the multiplier, to a decrease
in output
2.An increase in the real exchange rate- a real
depreciation leads to shift in demand toward
domestic goods, and thus in increase in net
exports. the increase in net export increases
demand and output
44
3. Given our focus on the short run, we assumed in
our previous treatment of the IS-LM Model that
the (domestic) price level was given. I shall
extend this assumption to the foreign price level,
so the real exchange rate , (Є ≡ E P*/P) and the
nominal exchange rate (E) move together. A
nominal depreciation leads one for one , to a real
depreciation. If for notational convenience, we
choose P and P* so that P=P*=1 (and we can do
so because they are index number), then Є = E

45
 4.As we take the domestic price level as given,
there is no inflation, actual or expected. Thus,
the nominal and the real interest rate are the
same, and we can replace the real interest rate r,
in the equation by the nominal interest rate, i
Y = C(Y-T) + I (Y, i) + G + NX(Y,Y*, E)
(+) (+, -) (-,+, +)

46
 EQUILIBRIUM IN FINANCIAL MARKETS

Domestic bonds Versus Foreign Bonds

The Interest parity condition
it = i t* + (Eet+1 – E t)/ E t
The domestic interest rate it must be equal to the
foreign interest rate it* plus the expected rate of
depreciation of the domestic currency
(Eet+1 – E t)/ E t
47
 For now, The expected future exchange rate is
given and denote it as E e and under this
assumption, and dropping time indexes, the
interest parity condition becomes :
i = i * + (E e – E)/ E
Multiplying both sides by E, bringing the terms in
E to the left side, and dividing both sides by (1+i-
i*) gives the current exchange rate as a function of
the expected future exchange rate and the domestic
and foreign interest rate

48
 E = E e/ (1+i – i*)
This equation implies a negative relation between
the domestic interest rate and the exchange rate.
Given the expected future exchange rate and the
foreign interest rate, an increase in the domestic
interest rate leads to a decrease in the exchange
rate equivalently, to an appreciation of the domestic
currency. A decrease in the domestic interest rate
leads to an increase in the exchange rate to a
depreciation

49
 Domestic Interest rate, i

Interest parity relation (given i*, Ee)

Ee Exchange Rate, E

Appreciation of the Depreciation of the

domestic currency domestic currency
50
AL-SHARF DAN
HEDGING
Pengertian…..1
 Merupakan transaksi jual-beli mata uang asing
(valuta asing) yang dapat dilakukan baik dengan
sesama mata uang yang sejenis, misalnya rupiah
dengan rupiah maupun yang tak sejenis, misalnya
rupiah dengan dolar atau sebaliknya Jual-beli mata
uang yang tidak sejenis ini, penyerahannya yang
harus dilakukan pada waktu yang sama
Batasan Al-Sharf….1
 Aktivitas perdagangan valuta asing harus terbebas
dari unsur riba, maisir, dan gharar. Dalam
pelaksanaannya haruslah memperhatikan beberapa
batasan sebagai berikut:
1. Pertukaran tersebut harus dilakukan secara tunai
(spot), artinya masing-masing pihak harus
menerima/menyerahkan masing-masing mata uang
pada saat yang bersamaan
Batasan Al-Sharf….2
2. Motif pertukaran adalah dalam rangka
mendukung transaksi komersial, yaitu transaksi
perdagangan barang dan jasa antar bangsa, bukan
dalam rangka spekulasi
3. Harus dihindari jual beli bersyarat. Misalnya, A
sutuju membeli barang dari B hari ini dengan
syarat B harus membelinya kembali pada tanggal
tertentu dimasa mendatang
Batasan Al-Sharf….3
4. Transaksi berjangka harus dilakukan dengan
pihak-pihak yang diyakini mampu menyediakan
valuta asing yang dipertukarkan.
5. Tidak dibenarkan menjual barang yang belum
dikuasai atau dengan kata lain tidak dibenarkan
jual beli tanpa hak kepemilikan (bai’ al-fudhuli
Prilaku Perdagangan Valas…..1
 Dengan memperhatikan beberapa batasan tersebut,
terdapat beberapa tingkah laku perdagangan yang
dewasa ini biasa dilakukan di pasar valuta asing
konvensional harus dihindari, yaitu antara lain:
Prilaku Perdagangan Valas…2
1. Perdagangan tanpa penyerahan (future non-delivery
trading atau margin trading),
2. Jual beli valas bukan transaksi komersial
(arbitrage), baik spot maupun forward
3. Melakukan penjualan melebihi jumlah yang dimiliki
atau dibeli (oversold),
4. Melakukan transaksi swap
ketentuan Umum Sharf…1
1. Nilai tukar yang dijual belikan harus telah dikuasai,
baik oleh pembeli maupun oleh penjual, sebelum
keduanya berpisah. Penguasaan ini dapat berbentuk
penguasaan secara material maupun hukum.
Penguasaan secara material, misalnya pembeli
langsung menerima dolar AS yang dibeli dan
penjual langsung menerima uang rupiah. Adapun
penguasaan hukum, misalnya pembayaran dengan
menggunakan cek
ketentuan Umum Sharf…2
2. Apabila mata uang atau valuta yang diperjual-belikan itu dari
jenis yang sama, maka jual beli mata uang itu harus dilakukan
dalam mata uang sejenis yang kualitas dan kuantitasnya sama
sekalipun model dari mata uang itu berbeda.
3. Dalam Sharf tidak boleh dipersyaratkan dalam akadnya
adanya hak khiar syarat (khiar) bagi pembeli. Khiar syarat
adalah hak pilih bagi pembeli untuk dapat melanjutkan jual
beli mata uang tersebut setelah selesai berlangsungnya jual-
beli yang terdahulu atau tidak melanjutkan jual-beli itu,yang
syarat itu diperjanjikan ketika berlangsungnya transaksi
terdahulu tersebut
ketentuan Umum Sharf…3

4. Tidak ada tenggang waktu antara

penyerahan mata uang yang
dipertukarkan, karena bagi sahnya sharf
penegasan objek akad harus dilakukan
secara tunai dan perbuatan saling
menyerahkan itu harus berlangsung
sebelum kedua belah pihak yang
melakukan jual-beli valuta berpisah.
HEDGING
PENGERTIAN
 Lindung nilai atau hedging sebagai salah
satu alat dalam manajemen risiko masih
diperdebatkan hingga hari ini, hal ini
membuktikan adanya gap antara hukum
normatif dan positif mengenai
kesesuaiannya terhadap syari’ah
Derivative….1
 Instrumen-instrumen baru dalam bidang ekonomi
seperti derivative dikaji secara mendalam dan
komprehensif oleh para ulama dan pakar ekonomi
Islam yang merujuk pada sumber hukum Islam yang
utama yakni Al-Qur’an, Hadits serta hasil Ijtihad para
ulama sebelumnya. Hasil kajian tersebut kemudian
dituangkan dalam bentuk fatwa yang menjadi dasar
praktik derivative bagi umat Islam.
Derivative….2
 Fatwa-fatwa yang berkaitan dengan derivative antara lain
adalah fatwa dari Dewan Syari’ah Nasional Majelis Ulama
Indonesia (DSN MUI) No. 28/DSN-MUI/III/2002 tentang
jual beli mata uang (Al-Sharf) dijelaskan bahwa jual beli
mata uang pada prinsipnya boleh dilakukan dengan syarat
atau ketentuan tidak untuk spekulasi (untung-untungan), ada
kebutuhan transaksi untuk berjaga-jaga (simpanan), apabila
nilainya dilakukan terhadap mata uang sejenis maka nilainya
harus sama dan secara tunai (at-taqabudh), apabila berlainan
jenis maka harus dilakukan dengan nilai tukar (valas) yang
berlaku ada saat transaksi dilakukan dan secara tunai
fatwa terhadap jenis-jenis transaksi Derivatif ….1

1. Spot
 Transaksi pembelian dan penjualan valas untuk penyerahan
pada saat itu (over the counter) atau penyelesaiannnya paling
lambat dalam jangka waktu sua hari hukumnya adalah boleh
atau tidak bertentangan dengan syari’ah.
2. Forward
 Transaksi pembelian dan penjualan valas yang nilainya
ditetapkan pada saat sekarang untuk waktu yang akan datang,
antara 2 x 24 jam sampai dengan satu tahun, hukumnya
adalah haram, kecuali dalam bentuk forward agreement untuk
kebutuhan yang tidak dapat dihindari (lil hajah).
fatwa terhadap jenis-jenis transaksi valas
……..2
3. Swap
 Kontrak pembelian dan penjualan valas dengan harga spot
yang dikombinasikan dengan pembelian antara penjualan
valas yang sama dengan harga forward hukumnya adalah
haram.
4. Options
 Kontrak untuk memperoleh hak dalam rangka membeli
atau hak untuk menjual yang tidak harus dilakukan atas
sejumlah unit valas pada harga dan jangka waktu atau
tanggal akhir tertentu hukumnya adalah haram.
fatwa terhadap jenis-jenis transaksi valas ……..3

 Fatwa lainnya yang berkitan dengan transaksi

derivative adalah dari negara Malaysia mengenai
derivative future contract untuk crude palm oil
(CPO). Fatwa ini menyatakan bahwa derivative
future contract CPO merupakan transaksi yang
termasuk syariah compliant sehingga dapat
digunakan sebagai lindung nilai.
Mekanisme Transaksi Derivative…1

 Salah satu usaha mengurangi risiko adalah dengan

melakukan lindung nilai (hedging). Konsep hedging
pada dasarnya adalah dengan cara mengambil posisi
yang berlawanan antara cash market dengan future
market yang bertujuan untuk menghindari kerugian
akibat pergerakan harga pasar.
 Hedging dapat dilakukan menggunakan instrumen-
instrumen derivative seperti forward contract,
futures contract, options dan swaps
Mekanisme Transaksi Derivative ..2

 Penggunaan instrumen derivative sebagai alat

mengendalikan risiko adalah karena globalisasi
ekonomi dan integrasi keuangan dunia ditambah
pula dengan peningkatan volatility atau sangat
mudahnya pasar keuangan berfluktuasi. Adanya
instrumen derivative memungkinkan barbagai
partisipan (the ”end-user”) untuk melindungi nilai
ktiva yan dimillikinya dari risiko kerugian akibat
kemerosotan nilai hanya pada batas toleransi yang
diinginkan atau direncanakan
Mekanisme Transaksi Derivative…3

 mekanisme futures contract secara sederhana adalah misalnya

suatu perusahaan membutuhkan minyak mentah untuk
dikelola tiga bulan yang akan datang, maka ia menghadapi
risiko fluktuasi harga minyak karena tidak dapat memprediksi
harga bahan baku 3 bulan yang akan datang. Untuk ia dapat
melakukan lindung nilai (hedging) dengan membeli futures
contract di pasar sekunder pada harga futures tertentu dengan
jangka waktu tiga bulan. Future price ini akan bernilai lebih
tinggi dari harga spot minyak mentah pada hari dilakukannya
pembelian kontrak karena ditambahkan unsur margin berupa
carrying cost, interest risk free, insurance dan lain sebagainya.
Mekanisme Transaksi Derivative…4

 Ketika jangka waktu kontrak tiba maka futures contract

kembali dijual oleh si pengusaha pada harga spot.
Apabila harga spot pada tiga bulan yang akan datang
melebihi futures price maka si pengusaha mendapatkan
keuntungan atau premium. Bila sebaliknya harga spot
lebih rendah dari futures price maka posisi ini disebut
discount karena pengusaha mengalami kerugian di
pasar keuangan. Nilai kerugian yang diderita sebesar
selisih harga spot dengan harga futures pada tanggal
jatuh tempo (setllement date).