REPRINTED from 2/27/2011

(b)



(a)

(c)


While the previous slide demonstrated a few ³potentially´ bearish developments, the shorter term picture is
not bearish. From the $34.32 high, this was an ³abc´ corrective pattern lower--NOT impulsive. Presented
above would be the best count for ³bears´«that we¶re in the middle of some kind of ³complex´ correction
lower. The bullish count would be that it was a simple (abc) down which concluded at $31.71. If that¶s the
case, May Silver should have no problem taking out resistance at $33.75/oz this week.

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  !
"  

*ast week it was pointed out that the short term picture was not ³bearish.´ Indeed, Silver busted
out of what was a decent sized flag pattern to set a new high. At the end of the week, it
congested in another smaller sized flag/pennant pattern and then busted out of that one. The
targets for the various flags/pennants is the $37-$38/oz range. The 60 min. RSI hit a fresh
high--if one looks back at the other fresh ³overbought´ signals, it was bullish. 
#
 
 

$%&'()*+,  ! -

v


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 ./  

  
  * +
0
,
$110

This appears to be a nice example of a ³cup and handle´ continuation pattern on WTI
crude oil. The target for this set up is $110/bbl. Bulls/*ongs might consider $102.75 as
support and an area to place ³stop loss´ orders.

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 123 .4 Our long standing count on the DXY has been that in Mid-2008, a major move ended and a correction higher
began, with the first leg up being the ³financial crisis.´ Since then, it had looked like a ³triangle´ (B) wave. This
idea/count is now in jeopardy as the proposed ³e´ wave is consuming as much time the ³c´ wave, the longest
wave in the pattern. An e-wave can never be the longest wave in a contracting triangle! The other issue with the
³e´ wave concept is that the pattern down from the ³d´ wave peak is an ³unrecognizable´ pattern.

*#,
7|8 *
,

*,

56-% *,
798
5&-5

*,
› 
   
  
  ›   
  
! 
"   #"   # $% $%!
&  '    

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123   7:!8 If the Dollar starts taking out the supports cited on the previous slide, then this will be our longer term
count. The DXY would take out the all time low in a Intermediate Wave (V) of -C-. This count would
(()## probably mean a sub-70 on the DXY in the next several months. The ³good news´ is that the proposed
-C- wave here had an extended Wave (1), which means that the final Wave (V) will be ³shortest´ leg of
the pattern down

 9
7 8

7|8

*#,
7//8
³a´ ³c´
7/;8
³e´
 | 7/8
*, *,
798 ³b´
³d´

7///8
7;8
 

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=
  REPRINTED from 2/27/2011

1325 and 1344 should be first and second levels of resistance this week. 1275 becomes the
first level of support. As can be seen on this chart, there is decent ³air´ beneath the market if
1275 breaks.

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=
 

7#8
[a] [c]

[1]?

[b]

78
The market did not give us a lot of clarity from last week¶s commentary in terms of waves structure. The
labelling above is a ³guess´ at what might be going on. The nice thing going on here is that Mr. Market will
give us some ³answers´ early in the week and support and resistance is well defined. 1325 is the 62%
retrace of Friday¶s move down. If the count above is correct, then the Market should NOT trade above 1325.
1302 looks like decent support for any ³bulls/longs´ Below, 1302, I don¶t see much support until 1275.

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 1/ :|/>=.|=?/?@1/ :|/>=.|=?/?@1/ :|/>=

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any

kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT .#!
representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author¶s "I" or "A" = Grand Supercycle
interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not I or A = Supercycle
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opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information -I- or -A- = Primary
contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author (I) or (A) = Intermediate
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