Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Futures
Presented to the
Minnesota Futurists
16 May 2009
Dick Saunders and David Keenan
But first a word from our
sponsor
The Futurist Tool
of the day
Trend Analysis and Extrapolation
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
• Now you need to do some analysis to see what the nature of the trend is
and what its implications might be.
http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
• Trend analysis requires that you do more than simply extrapolate the trend
forward.
• You have to ask, what is causing this trend, and will those causes
continue indefinitely?
• At this point trend analysis relies more on subjective judgment rather than
objective extrapolation of historical data.
• Assuming that the future will be like the past or that past changes will
continue in the same direction and rate is a perfectly sensible way to begin
trying to understand the future.
• It can not, however, be the end of our endeavors, or we would end up with
absurd results.
http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm
Trends to Analyze in This Talk
• Solar Cells
– Market size
– Market share
– Sales
– Units
– Power produced
– Cost per power delivered
Agenda
• The Sun
• Solar Cells
– Background
– How they work
– Types
• Markets
• Costs
• Countries
• Companies
• Questions
Now on with the show
Energy from the Sun
• About half the incoming solar energy reaches the Earth's surface.
• Earth's land surface, oceans and atmosphere absorb solar radiation, and
this raises their temperature. Sunlight absorbed by the oceans and land
masses keeps the surface at an average temperature of 14 °C.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
Breakdown of incoming solar energy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Breakdown_of_the_incoming_solar_energy.svg
Energy from the Sun
Yearly Solar fluxes & Human Energy Consumption
• The total solar energy absorbed by Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land
masses is approximately 3,850,000 exajoules (EJ) (1018 joules) per year.
(70% of incoming sunlight) (1
Joule = energy required to heat one gram of dry, cool air by 1˚ C)
• Primary energy use (2005) 487 EJ (0.0126%)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
Solar Cells Background
• 1839 - French physicist A. E. Becquerel first recognized the
photovoltaic effect.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell
PV Solar for Electricity
Photovoltaics
http://www.solarenergy.org/resources/energyfacts.html
How Solar Cells Work
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svg
Solar Cells Background
Three generations of solar cells
• Solar Cells are classified into three generations which indicates the
order of which each became important.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell
Solar Cells Background
First Generation – Single Junction Silicon Cells
89.6% of 2007 Production
45.2% Single Crystal Si
42.2% Multi-crystal SI Silicon Cell Average Efficiency
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
Global Annual PV Market
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
Solar Cell Market Estimate
Solar Cells 2010 Market Share Estimate
50%
40%
Market Share
30%
20%
10%
0%
Type
-- First Generation -- -- Second Generation -- - Third Gen -
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
Solar PV Market Outlook
Annual PV Market Outlook
$500 China
$400 Central + South
$300 America
North America
$200 Europe
$100
$-
2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
by 2030 8.9% of Global Energy, 1,864 GW Production Capacity, 2,646 TWh Electricity
SEMI PV Group March 2009 from source EPIA Solar Generation V Sept 08 www.epia.org
Cost Projections
$/kWh
“Grid parity’ where PV cost $1.35
are equal to residential
electricity costs is $1.07
expected to be achieved
first in southern European $0.81
countries and then to
move north $0.54
$0.27
$0.13 ---
Rancho Cielo Solar Farm USA 600 Thin film silicon from Signet Solar**
Topaz Solar Farm USA 550 1,100 Thin film silicon from OptiSolar **
High Plains Ranch USA 250 550 Monocrystaline silicon from SunPower with
tracking **
Mildura Solar concentrator power Australia 154 270 Heliostat concentrator using GaAs cells from
station Spectrolab**
KCRD Solar Farm USA 80 Scheduled to be completed in 2012 **
Kennedy Space Center, Florida USA 10 To be constructed by SunPower for FPL Energy,
completion date 2010.**
• 42,000 employees
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.html
Waldpolenz Solar Park
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.html
Waldpolenz Solar Park
http://lumbergusa.com/main/Bild/sp_pv_07/Brandis-Waldpolenz-Fotomont.jpg
United States
• 2007 - PV production grew in all areas of US market
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.html
Chart Data
Figure 1.1 The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption in the Nation's
Energy Supply, 2007 (Quadrillion Btu)
Consumption Share
Total US 101.545
Coal 22.776 22%
Natural Gas 23.637 23%
Petroleum 39.773 39%
Nuclear Electric Power 8.415 8%
Renewable Energy: 6.813 7%
Of which:
Hydroelectric 2.446 36%
Geothermal Energy 0.349 5%
Biomass 3.596 53%
Solar Energy 0.081 1%
Wind Energy 0.341 5%
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/figure1_1.xls
US Solar Industry Data
Solar energy represents less than 1% of the U.S. energy mix. However, as a result of
growing awareness about reliable, off-the-shelf technology, concerns about rising costs,
energy security and supplies, and new state and federal incentives, deployment of solar
energy has exploded since 2005.
• Size of U.S. Market
2008 - U.S. had about 8,800 megawatts (MW) of installed solar capacity.
1,100 MW of photovoltaics (PV),
418 MW of utility-scale concentrating solar power,
485 MWTh (megawatts thermal equivalent) of solar water heating systems
7,000 MWTh of solar pool heating systems.
• Growth of U.S. Market 2008 - more than 18,000 individual PV systems were
installed. Totaled 342 MW: 292 MW was grid-connected.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nellis_AFB_Solar_panels.jpg
GM installs world's biggest
rooftop solar panels
• The largest rooftop solar power station in the world is being built in Spain.
With a capacity of 12 MW of power, the station is made up of 85,000
lightweight panels covering an area of two million SqFt.
• Manufactured in rolls, rather like carpet, the photovoltaic panels are to be
installed on the roof of a General Motors car factory in Zaragoza, Spain.
• General Motors, which plans to install solar panels at another 11 plants
across Europe, unveiled the €50M ($68M) project yesterday. The power
station should be producing energy by September.
• The panels will produce an expected annual output of 15.1 million kilowatt
hours (kWh) - enough to meet the needs of 4,600 households with an
average consumption of 3,300kWh, or power a third of the GM factory. The
solar energy produced should cut CO2 emissions by 6,700 tons a year.
• Energy Conversion Devices who makes the panels, said it would be the
largest rooftop solar array in the world.
• 2007
• National Renewable Energy targets
– 10% by 2010 (300 MW)
– 15% by 2020 (1.8 GW)
• Supplies 1,130 tons of polysilicon from 6 companies
• Supplies 21,400 tons of silicon ingot from 70 companies
• Number 1 PV panel producer – 1.1 GW
• 50 PV panel companies including Suntech, Yingli, Hebei
Jingao, Jiansu Linyang, and Nangjing CEEG
• 82,800 employees (6 times that of 2005)
Motech - Taiwan
BP Solar
• BP Solar to supply PV power systems for Wal-Mart in CA 22 April 2009
• Under a power purchase agreement (PPA), BP will finance, install and maintain
the systems and Wal-Mart will have immediate access to clean electricity with no
up front capital cost to the retailer.
• 2008 BP completed 4.1 MW solar systems for 7 Wal-Marts & Sam’s Clubs in CA.
• BP is one of the world’s largest energy companies, in more than 100 countries and
over 96,000 employees.
http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9025044&contentId=7046577
BP axes 620 jobs from solar business
• 01 April, 2009 - BP to axe 620 jobs from its solar power business
– more than a quarter of that workforce – in a move it said was
part of the long-term strategy to "reduce the cost of solar power to
that of conventional electricity.“
• Two cell manufacture and module assembly plants near Madrid, will
be shut with the loss of 480 posts while module assembly will also
be phased out at its Frederick facility in Maryland, US, with a further
140 redundancies.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/01/bp-solar
Q Cells SE
• 1999 founded, 2001 began with the production of silicon solar cells with
19 employees.
• Now the largest solar cell manufacturer in the world. (since 2007)
• Produces silicon solar cells and thin film, leveraging silicon knowledge from
LCD manufacturing
• 2008, capacity will reach 1.6 million square meters of thin-film modules, as
we simultaneously build the world's largest thin film manufacturing complex,
capable of 10 million square meters per year. And this gigawatt-scale factory
is only the first to come. Katsuga City, Nara and Sakai City, Osaka, Japan
• Sharp powers more homes and businesses than any other solar mfg in the
world. First mfgr to reach 2 GW cumulative production since mass
production start in 1963
• Memphis, TN – 100 MW manufacturing facility
• Plants in Wuxi and other areas are in normal operation with more than
50% capacity running, compared with 85% prior to financial meltdown.
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2119252/
SunTech Power
• Sales $1.9B 2008, 1.3B 2007 profitable
• Employees: 6784
• STP:NYSE
• Wuxi, China
• Worlds largest silicon cell maker
• Average conversion efficiency rates of their monocrystalline and
multicrystalline silicon PV cells 16.4% and 14.9% respectively
• 10 May 2009 announces plan to build manufacturing plant in US, now
shopping states for incentives
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:STP
Kyocera Solar
• 2008 broke ground for new plant in Tianjin City, China to expand
there from 60 MW to 240 MW by 2011. First one in China ‘03
http://www.kyocerasolar.com/about/
First Solar
• TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 24, 2009-- First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq:
FSLR) today announced it reduced its manufacturing cost for solar modules in
the fourth quarter to 98 cents per watt, breaking the $1 per watt price barrier.
• 2004 Began full commercial operation. Manufacturing capacity has grown to
more than 500 MW in 2008 and will double in 2009 to more than 1 GW, the
equivalent of an average-sized nuclear power plant.
• Escalating volumes accompanied by a rapid reduction in manufacturing costs.
Manufacturing costs have declined from over $3 per watt to less than $1 per
watt. Further significant cost reductions are possible.
• First Solar has industry’s first and only comprehensive pre-funded, end-of-life
module collection and recycling program, recycling more than 90% of each
collected module into new products. (A serious issue due to Cadmium-Telluride)
• High throughput, automated lines that integrate each production step, from CdTe
semiconductor deposition to final assembly and test, in one continuous process.
This advanced manufacturing process transforms a piece of glass into a
complete solar module in less than 2.5 hours.
www.firstsolar.com/
First Solar
finance.google.com
Motech Industries
• Modern Technology for a Sustainable World
• 1,331 employees
www.motech.com.tw
Shell dumps wind, solar and hydro
power in favor of biofuels
• Shell will no longer invest in renewable technologies such as wind,
solar and hydro power because they are not economic, the Anglo-
Dutch oil company said today. 17 Mar 09
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/17/royaldutchshell-energy
SolarWorld AG
• SWV: Frankfurt exchange
• 1,825 employees
• 2006 acquired assets from Shell Solar which had been largest US solar
products maker (fka Arco Solar and Siemens Solar)
– Camarillo, CA and Vancouver, WA
http://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA:SWV
Sun Power
• Founded 1985, purchased by Cypress Semiconductor in 2004, spun
out in 2008. SPWRA and SPWRB NASDAQ
• Employees: 5,400
http://us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/
SunPower Solar Cell
http://us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/why-sunpower/best-technology/
Energy Conversion Devices /
United Solar Ovonics
• ENER:NASDAQ
• Rochester Hills, MI
http://www.uni-solar.com/uploadedFiles/Uni-SolarTechnologyandManufacturingProcessAppendix.pdf
Silikin
• Since 2001, SILIKEN has obtained a significant share on the Spanish
PV market and has installed more than 160 MW of solar PV energy, =
240 GWh, the electricity consumption of more than 63,595 homes.
• Number of employees: Currently 700 people.
Valencia, Tenerife and Albacete, Spain and San Diego, CA
• Sales: €152 million ($207 million) in 2007.
http://www.siliken.com/quienes/historia?languageId=1
Some Questions
• Will ‘peak minerals’ (rising cost due to limits in availability) limit
growth of thin film and third generation solar cells?
• How will cost and efficiency of 2nd and 3rd generation solar cells
impact the businesses built on 1st generation technology?