Professional Documents
Culture Documents
• Prospects:
House prices, house-building plans, households.
• Policies:
Command and control, incentives.
What determines house prices?
Basically, the “price” of houses is fixed at the level at which the
demand for houses today is equal to the fixed stock available
today.
Price
Pt
Demandt
Stockt Houses
In the recent past, demand has been shifting to the right
more rapidly than the stock (which moves to the right by
around 3/4% per annum).
So house price inflation depends on how fast demand
rises relative to the available stock.
Price
Pt+1
Demandt+1
Pt
Demandt
• This means that house prices and house price inflation are,
currently, more or less unaffected by construction costs. Note,
current construction costs impact neither on the demand for
houses nor on the existing stock.
• Example.
• Suppose the planning regime forces builders to raise the
proportion of “cheap” (small) homes. This will have two
effects.
• The ratio of (lower quartile) house prices to (lower quartile) earnings has
risen from around 4 in 2000 to over 7 today.
• From 1996 to 2001, housebuilding was at a rate of around 135K per annum,
households increased at around 159K per annum.
• Households are now rising at over 210K. Net migration represents around
one third. Increasing life expectancy and behavioural changes continue to
lower household size.
Indexes of real house prices, earnings and GDP, United Kingdom (1997 to 2006)
250
Real GDP
Real House prices
Real Earnings
200
150
Index (1997=100)
100
50
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Housing affordability: ratio of lower quartile house prices to earnings
10
9 LONDON
SOUTH EAST
SOUTH WEST
8
EAST
ENGLAND
7 WEST MIDLANDS
EAST MIDLANDS
6 YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER
NORTH WEST
Ratio
5 NORTH EAST
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Housebuilding: permanent dwellings completed, by tenure, England
400000
350000
300000
Private enterprise
Number of completeddwellings
250000
RSLs
200000
Local Authorities
150000
All dwellings
100000
50000
0
1946 1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006
Household estimates and household projections, by household type, England only
30000
25000
20000
Number of households (000s)
one person
other multi-person
15000 lone parent
cohabiting couple
married couple
10000
5000
0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Does it Matter?
• As affordability worsens, more people are pushed into private renting, forcing
up rents.
• More people are driven into the already hard-pressed social renting sector and
queues lengthen.
• This affects us all. The economy suffers from the consequent impediments to
labour mobility.
• Key workers are unable to find somewhere to live near where they work.
• Housing wealth has risen enormously. Can the country really be wealthier
because we collectively restrict the supply of building land?
The Private Rented Sector (PRS)
• Overall, the PRS in England represents around 2.7 million
dwellings which is around 13% of the overall housing stock.
• At the low point, in the late 1980s, the PRS was just over 2
million dwellings, around 10% of the stock. Buy-to-let (BTL)
mortgages were introduced in 1996. In 1988 and 1993, there
were changes in legislation which made the PRS more
attractive to investors.
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Private rental without BTL mortgage Private rental with BTL mortgage
The Impact of BTL (I)
• The introduction of BTL mortgages had two effects. First, it
raised the supply of rented property and hence lowered rents
(below the level they would have reached otherwise).
• Note, however, that the fall in rents will have reduced the
demand for residential property by owner-occupiers.
Nevertheless, it is plausible that the overall demand for
residential property rose despite this offsetting effect.
• The upshot would have been that the rise in BTL mortgages
contributed to the rise in residential property prices.
The Impact of BTL (II)
• The fact that the rate of completion of new homes has been well below the
rate of formation of new households means there is a large build-up of
unsatisfied demand.
• The evidence suggests that over the long-term, a 1 per cent rise in real
incomes raises house prices by 2 per cent if the housing stock remains
unchanged.
What do Affordability Prospects
Look Like? П
• If the housebuilding plans currently embodied in the draft RSS plans
(around 200K p.a.) are fulfilled, house price to earnings ratios are likely to
rise from around 7 to around 10 over the next twenty years.
• If Green Paper plans (reaching 240K p.a. by 2016, 3m. new homes by
2020) are fulfilled, house price to earnings ratios are likely to rise to
around 9.5 over the next twenty years. This may be reduced significantly
by biasing new homes towards more expensive regions and even further by
some bias towards larger family homes which are in shortest supply.
• NHPAU projections indicate that a plan to reach 270K new homes p.a. by
2016 would come close to stabilising affordability in the long run.
Policies I
• It is plain that the problem is housing supply and, in the
market sector, the binding constraint lies with local authorities
(LAs) and the planning system.
• Basic system:
Regional spatial strategies, local development frameworks,
LA land supply (PPS 3).
• Add-ons:
More controversial:
• Allow CIL incentives to work. CIL rates can be much higher
in areas where the difference between the value of land with
permission and its alternative use value is much higher. These
high value areas are around certain towns in SE/E, eg. Oxford,
Cambridge. The green belt is important here.