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Market Timing v.s Buy and Hold
52 yrs
• An investor buys $1,000 stocks in in NYSE on
Jan 1, 1978 and reinvests all its dividends in that
portfolio. The the ending value of the portfolio
on Dec 31, 1978 would be: $67,500
$1,000 $67,500
Return
New CAL
p .
A
CML
Risk
rA=aA + rf +bA(rm-rf)
Given:
rp = wrA + (1-w)rm
wk = ak/s2(ek)
a1/s2(e1)+...+an/s2(en)
Illustration of TB Model
• Stock a b s(e)
1 7% 1.6 45%
2 -5 1.0 32
3 3 0.5 26
• rm-rf =0.08; sm=0.2
• Let us construct the optimal active portfolio implied
by the TB model as:
Stock a/s2(e) Weight (wk)
1 0.07/0.452 = 0.3457 (1)/T = 1.1417
2 -0.05/0.322 = -0.4883 (2)/T = -1.6212
3 0.03/0.262 = 0.4438 (3)/T = 1.4735
Total (T) 0.3012
Composition of active portfolio:
aA = w1a1+w2a2+w3a3
=1.1477(7%)-1.6212(5%)+1.4735(3%)
=20.56%
bA = w1b1+w2b2+w3b3
= 1.1477(1.6)-1.6212(1)+1.4735(0.5)
= 0.9519
s(eA) = [w21s21+w22s22+w23s23]0.5
= [1.14772(0.452)+1.62122(0.322) +1.47352(0.262)]0.5
= 0.8262