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N0
N1
N2
s+1 rows by 1 column
N3 (s+1) x 1
….
Where, s=maximum age
Ns
Births
Newborns = (Number of age 1 females) times (Fecundity of age 1 females) plus
(Number of age 2 females) times (Fecundity of age 2 females) plus
…..
Na,t = Na-1,t-1Sa
N0 F0 F1 F2 F3 …. Fs N0
N1 S0 0 0 0 …. 0 N1
N2
= 0 S1 0 0 …. 0
N2
N3 N3
…. 0 0 S2 0 …. 0 ….
….
Ns Ns
0 0 0 0 Ss-1 0
(s+1) x 1 (s+1) x (s+1) (s+1) x 1
Leslie Matrix
N0 F0 F1 F2 F3 …. Fs N0
N1 S0 0 0 0 …. 0 N1
N2
= 0 S1 0 0 …. 0
N2
N3 N3
…. 0 0 S2 0 …. 0 ….
….
Ns Ns
0 0 0 0 Ss-1 0
sx1 sxs sx1
Leslie Matrix
N0 F0 F1 F2 F3 …. Fs N0
N1 S0 0 0 0 …. 0 N1
N2
= 0 S1 0 0 …. 0
N2
N3 N3
…. 0 0 S2 0 …. 0 ….
….
Ns Ns
Nt+1 = A N
0 0 0 0 Ss-1 0
t
Projection with the Leslie Matrix
Nt+1 = ANt
Nt+2 = AANt
Nt+3 = AAANt
Nt+4 = AAAANt
Nt+n = AnNt
Properties of this Model
• Age composition initially has an effect on
population growth rate, but this disappears
over time (ergodicity)
• Over time, population generally
approaches a stable age distribution
• Population projection generally shows
exponential growth
Properties of this Model
Graphical Illustration
Properties of this Model
Graphical Illustration
Lambda = Nt+1 / Nt
Thus,
Nt+1 = λ Nt
Properties of this Model
Graphical Illustration
Projection with the Leslie Matrix
matrix A itself
Nt+n = AnNt
Projection with the Leslie Matrix
The root (λ) that has the largest absolute value is the
“dominant” eigenvalue and will determine population
growth in the long run. The other eigenvalues will
Projection with the Leslie Matrix
Eigenvectors
Associated with the dominant eigenvalue is two sets of
eigenvectors
So far, I’ve used the term projecting – what does this mean in
technical terms, and how does it differ from a forecast or
prediction.
N0 F0 F1 F2 F3 …. Fs N0
N2
= T0-2 T1-2 T2-2 T3-2 ….. Ts-2
N2
N3 N3
…. T0-3 T1-3 T2-3 T3-3 ….. Ts-3 ….
….
Ns Ns
T0-s T1-s T2-s T3-s ….. Ts-s
Lefkovitch Matrix
Note now that each of the matrix elements do not correspond
simply to survival and fecundity, but rather to transition rates
(probabilities) between stages. These transition rates depend
in part on survival rate, but also on growth rates. Note also
that there is the possibility for an organism to “regress” in
stages (i.e., go to an earlier stage), whereas in the Leslie
matrix, everyone gets older if they survive, and they only
advance one age
Lefkovitch Matrix Example
N0 F0 F1 F2 F3 …. Fs N0
N2
= T0-2 T1-2 T2-2 T3-2 ….. Ts-2
N2
N3 N3
…. T0-3 T1-3 T2-3 T3-3 ….. Ts-3 ….
….
Ns Ns
T0-s T1-s T2-s T3-s ….. Ts-s
Example Application:
Sustainable Fishing Mortality
• An important question in fisheries
management is “How much fishing
pressure or mortality can a population
support?”
Example Application:
Sustainable Fishing Mortality
N0 F0 F1 F2 F3 …. Fs N0
N1 S0 0 0 0 …. 0 N1
N2
= 0 S1 0 0 …. 0
N2
N3 N3
…. 0 0 S2 0 …. 0 ….
….
Ns Ns
0 0 0 0 Ss-1 0
Example Application:
Sustainable Fishing Mortality
S=e -(M+F)
Age at entry
1.2
Rate of increase (lambda)
5 Maintenance
1.0 level
4
Current
0.8 3
0.6 2
0.4 1
0.2
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Instantaneous fishing mortality
Example Application:
Sustainable Fishing Mortality
750 Year 3
500
250
0
Year 4
500
250
0
Year 5
500
250
0
Frequency
500 Year 6
250
0
Year 7
500
250
0
Year 8
500
250
0
500 Year 9
250
0
500 Year 10
250
0
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Population size
Example Application:
Sustainable Fishing Mortality
6,000
4,000 Year 1-2
2,000
0
4,000
Year 2-3
2,000
0
1,200 Year 3-4
800
400
0
Frequency
1,200
800 Year 10-30
400
1,200
800 Year 10-40
400
Frequency
1,200
800 Year 10-50
400
1,200
800 Year 10-60
400
1,200
800 Year 10-70
400
1,200
800 Year 10-150
400
0
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
Population growth rate
Example Application:
Sustainable Fishing Mortality
1.4
Age at entry
1.2
Rate of increase (lambda)
5 Maintenance
1.0 level
4
Current
0.8 3
0.6 2
0.4 1
0.2
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Instantaneous fishing mortality
Example Application:
Reproductive Strategy of Yellow Perch
• One of main questions was whether
“stunting”, meaning very slow growth, of
yellow perch was caused by reproductive
strategy or if reproductive strategy
resulted from adaptation to low prey
abundance
• Our goal was to understand what stunted
fish “should” do in terms of age at maturity
Reproductive Strategy of Yellow Perch