DR. Ir.

Antarikso Abdulrahman, MBA, CPIM

 SIMPLE
MOVING
AVERAGE

WEIGHTED
SHORT-TERM MOVING
FORECASTING AVERAGE

EXPONENTIAL
SMOOTHING

Dr. Ir. Antarikso Abdulrahman, MBA, CPIM

Week Usage Week Usage Week Usage
1 200 17 256 33 190
THE DATA
2 217 18 233 34 243
3 190 19 178 35 213
4 244 20 182 36 206
5 256 21 253 37 188
6 231 22 211 38 213
7 190 23 252 39 194
8 231 24 179 40 200
9 255 25 188 41 231
10 256 26 213 42 243
11 215 27 186 43 236
12 233 28 254 44 253
What is the
13 201 29 221 45 234
14 215 30 213 46 213
forecast
15 190 31 217 47 211 of usage for
16 224 32 228 48 231 week #49?
Dr. Ir. Antarikso Abdulrahman, MBA, CPIM
Dr. Ir. Antarikso Abdulrahman, MBA, CPIM
 Forecast Minggu ke4 =
3-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE Rata-rata 3 minggu yang lalu

WEEK 1 200

WEEK 2 217

WEEK 3 190
607

WEEK 4 607
?? FORECAST = = 202
3
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast

1 200
AVERAGE
2 217
3 190
4 ? 202

200 + 217 + 190

3
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast

1 200
2 217
MOVING
3 190 AVERAGE

4 244 202
5 ? 217

217 + 190 + 244

3
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast

1 200
2 217
3 190
MOVING
4 244 202 AVERAGE

5 256 217
6 ? 230

190 + 244 + 256

3
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast

1 200
2 217
3 190
4 244 202
MOVING
5 256 217 AVERAGE
6 231 230
7 ? 244

244 + 256 + 231

3
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast

1 200
2 217
3 190
4 244 202
5 256 217
MOVING
6 231 230 AVERAGE
7 190 244
8 ? 226
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast

6 231
MOVING
7 190 AVERAGE
8 231
9 ? 217

231 + 190 + 231

3
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast

6 231
7 190
MOVING
8 231 AVERAGE
9 255 217
10 ? 225

162 + 194 + 312

3
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast

6 231
7 190
8 231
MOVING
9 255 217 AVERAGE
10 256 225
11 ? 247

231 + 255 + 256

3
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast

6 231
7 190
8 231
9 255 217
MOVING
10 256 225 AVERAGE
11 215 247
12 ? 242

312 + 256 + 215

3
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast

6 231
7 190
8 231
9 255 217
10 256 225
MOVING
11 215 247 AVERAGE
12 233 242
13 ? 235
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast

4 244 202
5 256 217
6 231 230
7 190 244
8 231 226
9 255 217
10 256 225
11 215 247
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast Error

4 244 202
116 42
5 256
302 217
167 39
6 231
274 230
233 1
7 190
162 244
273 -54
8 231
194 226
246 5
9 255
312 217
210 38
10 256
359 225
223 31
11 215 247
288 -32
3-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE

Week USAGE 3-WEEK AVE.

46 213 241
47 211 233
48 231 219
49 218

FORECAST FOR WEEK 49 = 218

Week USAGE 4-WEEK AVE.
45 234 241 4-WEEK
46 213 242 MOVING
47 211 234 AVERAGE
48 231 228
FORECAST = 222
49 222

Week USAGE 5-WEEK AVE.

44 253 221
45 234 233 5-WEEK
46 213 239 MOVING
47 211 236 AVERAGE
48 231 229
49 228
FORECAST = 228
WEEK 1
200
1X = 200 x 1 = 200

WEEK 2 2X
217
= 217 x 2 = 434

WEEK 3 3X
190
= 190 x 3 = 570

1204

WEEK 4 1204
FORECAST = = 201
?? 6
3-week WEIGHTED Moving Average

Week Usage Weight Forecast

1 200 1
2 217 2
3 190 3
4 ? 201

1 (200) + 2 (217) + 3 (190)

6
3-week WEIGHTED Moving Average

Week Usage Weight Forecast

1 200
2 217 1
3 190 2
4 244 3 201
5 ? 222

1 (217) + 2 (190) + 3 (244)

6
3-week WEIGHTED Moving Average

Week Usage Weight Forecast

1 200
2 217
3 190 1
4 244 2 201
5 256 3 222
6 ? 241

1 (190) + 2 (244) + 3 (256)

6
3-week WEIGHTED Moving Average

Week Usage Weight Forecast

1 200
2 217
3 190
4 244 1 201
5 256 2 222
6 231 3 241
7 ? 242

1 (244) + 2 (256) + 3 (231)

6
3-week WEIGHTED Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast

1 200
2 217
3 190
4 244 201
5 256 1 222
6 231 2 241
7 190 3 242
8 ? 215
3-week WEIGHTED Moving Average

Week Usage Weight Forecast

6 231 1 241
7 190 2 242
8 231 3 215
9 ? 217

1 (231) + 2 (190) + 3 (231)

6
3-week WEIGHTED Moving Average

Week Usage Weight Forecast

6 231 241
7 190 1 242
8 231 2 215
9 255 3 217
10 ? 236

1 (190) + 2 (231) + 3 (255)

6
3-week WEIGHTED Moving Average

Week Usage Weight Forecast

6 231 241
7 190 242
8 231 1 215
9 255 2 217
10 256 3 236
11 ? 252

1 (231) + 2 (255) + 3 (256)

6
3-week WEIGHTED Moving Average

Week Usage Weight Forecast

6 231 241
7 190 242
8 231 215
9 255 1 217
10 256 2 236
11 215 3 252
12 ? 235

1 (255) + 2 (256) + 3 (215)

6
3-week WEIGHTED Moving Average

Week Usage Weight Forecast

6 231 241
7 190 242
8 231 215
9 255 217
10 256 1 236
11 215 2 252
12 233 3 235
13 ? 231
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast

4 244 201
5 256 222
6 231 241
7 190 242
8 231 215
9 255 217
10 256 236
11 215 252
3-week Moving Average

Week Usage Forecast Error

4 244 201 43
5 256 222 34
6 231 241 -10
7 190 242 -52
8 231 215 16
9 255 217 38
10 256 236 20
11 215 252 -37
Week USAGE WEIGHT 123 3-WEEK
46 213 241 1-2-3 WEIGHTED
47 211 227
MOVING
AVERAGE
48 231 216
FORECAST = 221
49 221

Week USAGE WEIGHT 135 3-WEEK

46 213 241 1-3-5 WEIGHTED
MOVING
47 211 224
AVERAGE
48 231 214
49 222 FORECAST = 222
Period n

ACTUAL FORECAST ERROR =

Dn Fn Dn - Fn
100 110 -10

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING a = 0.1

Period n + 1

+ a
FORECAST FORECAST ERROR =
Fn+1 = Fn Dn - Fn

110 + 0.1 X -10

= 109
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING a = 0.1

Week Usage Forecast

1 200 ?
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING a = 0.1
To start, on week 1
Week Usage Forecast Forecast = Usage

1 200 200
 ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
200 + 0.1 x 0
 ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
200 + 0.1 x 17
 ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
4 244 201 43
202 + 0.1 x -12
 ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
4 244 201 43
5 256 205 51
201 + 0.1 x 43
 ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
4 244 201 43
5 256 205 51
6 231 210 21
205 + 0.1 x 51
 ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
4 244 201 43
5 256 205 51
6 231 210 21
7 190 212 -22
210 + 0.1 x 21
 ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
4 244 201 43
5 256 205 51
6 231 210 21
7 190 212 -22
8 231 210 21
212 + 0.1 x -22
 ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
4 244 201 43
5 256 205 51
6 231 210 21
7 190 212 -22
8 231 210 21
9 255 212 43
210 + 0.1 x 21
 ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
48 231 220 11
49 221
ALPHA = 0.4
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
48 231 221 11
49 225
ALPHA = 0.6
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
48 231 216 15
49 225
COMPARISON OF FORECASTING MODELS

MODEL FORECAST
3-WEEK Simple Moving Average 215
4-WEEK Simple Moving Average 222
5-WEEK Simple Moving Average 228
1-2-3 Weighted Moving Average 221
1-3-5 Weighted Moving Average 222
Exponential Smoothing, a = 0.1 221
Exponential Smoothing, a = 0.4 221
Exponential Smoothing, a = 0.6 221
The Best Model  the lowest error
 Mean
Squared
Error
(MSE)

Forecast
Error
Measurement

Mean
Absolute
Deviation
(MAD)
ERROR SQUARED ERROR ABSOLUTE ERROR
43 1,878 43
35 1,190 35
-10 100 10
-52 2,652 52
16 267 16
38 1,419 38
20 393 20
-37 1,332 37
-2 5 2
-30 890 30
1 1 1
-23 544 23
24 568 24
ERROR SQUARED ERROR ABSOLUTE ERROR
43 1,878 43
35 1,190 35
-10 100 10
-52 2,652 52
16 267 16
38 1,419 38
20 393 20
-37 1,332 37
-2 5 2
-30 890 30
1 1 1
-23 544 23
24 568 24
AVERAGE 865 25 MAD
MSE
COMPARISON OF FORECASTING ERRORS

MODEL MSE MAD

3-WEEK Simple Moving Average 869 24

4-WEEK Simple Moving Average 762 22
5-WEEK Simple Moving Average 670 22
3-WEEK 1-2-3 Weighted Moving Average 846 24
3-WEEK 1-3-5 Weighted Moving Average 854 24
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING a = 0.1 642 21
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING a = 0.4 708 22
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING a = 0.6 784 23
THE FORECAST

MODEL: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING with a = 0.1

F49 = F48 + a (D48 – F48)

D48 = 231

F48 = 220

F49 = 220 + (0.1) x (231 – 220) = 220 + 1

FORECAST for week #49 = 221