Risk-based oversight with proactive

barrier performance verification

Emma Verschoor – Product Manager
CGE Risk Management Solutions

International Cross-Safety Conference, Amsterdam 2018

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Copyright © CGE Risk MS BV
Emma Verschoor
Product Manager
e.verschoor@cgerisk.com

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All models are false, but some are useful

“(…) the practical question is

how wrong do they have to be to not be useful?”

George E. P. Box
Science and Statistics (1976)
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Copyright © CGE Risk MS BV
Copyright © CGE Risk MS BV
 Bowtie models

Provide the right level of detail to facilitate

understanding and risk based decision making,
without oversimplifying.

The right level of details depends on your goal.

Copyright © CGE Risk MS BV

Fault tree & Event tree with barriers
Communicative version
 3 questions

1. 2. 3.
Do we understand Do we know what our Do we have the
what can go wrong? systems are to prevent information to assure
this happening? us they are working
effectively?

Copyright © CGE Risk MS BV

Bowtie in 8 steps
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.

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Barrier thinking

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 Hazard

Losses

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 Hazard

Losses Barriers

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Equipment failure
Poor planning
Fatigue
Etc.

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History
1979

1988

90’s

00’s

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Bowtie today
Oil & Gas
Aviation
Energy
Chemical
Mining
Medical
Financial
Government
Construction
Cyber risk
Barrier-based auditing
Easy to spot weak spots
Results focus on risks, not categories
Intuitive display
 Time scheduling
Management system
Work procedures
Maintenance
Traditional Audit

Training &
Competency
 Time scheduling
Management system
Work procedures
Barrier-based auditing

Maintenance
Training &
Competency
Barrier-based audits
Q01: (Maintenance)
“Are the extinguishers well
maintained and filled?”

Q02: (Training)
“Is the personnel capable of
using the equipment?”

Q03: (Procedures)
“Is the personnel aware of
where to find the device?”
 Audit approaches
Traditional auditing Barrier-based auditing

Maintenance Training

Compliance Compliance

95% 90%
Criticality
Threat importance Number of barriers Barrier independence
Survey scope using Bowties

All questions All questions All questions

for behavioral for driver for critical
barriers barriers
Zoom-level

Point in time
End goal
Case study: Fisheries and Oceans Canada
ISO 31000:2018

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The risk management process

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Addressing uncertainties

Detect Implemented

Implemented
Decide

Act Partially implemented

 3 questions

1. 2. 3.
Do we understand what Do we know what our Do we have the
can go wrong? systems are to prevent information to assure us
this happening? they are working
effectively?