cv Learning Behavior Pattern to Predict

Dropout in MOOC

Team Members
1. ABHINAV CHATURVEDI 1DS15CS003
2. AKANKSHA PRIYA 1DS15CS008
1. AKASH RAI 1DS15CS009
2. ANUJ AGARWAL 1DS15CS018

Under the Guidance of,

Mrs. Anupama V P
Dept of Computer Science and Engineering
DSCE, Bangalore-560078

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 PROBLEM STATEMENT

• We present a dropout prediction technique to

identify at-risk students based on their prior
activities (e.g. watching course videos,
working on course assignments, accessing
the course wiki etc.).
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• A student will be defined as dropout from the
enrolled course if he or she leaves no records
for the course in the log.

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 LITERATURE SURVEY
Paper 1: Shift happens Online education as a new
paradigm in learning

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• new under-standing of the very nature of learning has affected
the definition, design, and delivery of education

• alter global civilization as educators and learners worldwide

adopt and adapt networked collaborative learning.

• online education may claim to be one of the major forces to

socialize cyberspace.

The new paradigm of collaborative networked learning is evident

in the new modes of course delivery being offered, in the
educational principles that frame the educational offerings

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 LITERATURE SURVEY
Paper 2: “Turn on, Tune in, Drop out”: Anticipating
student dropouts in Mooc
Pros:
• students have substantially more freedom to determine

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what, when, where, and how they will learn.
• The barrier to entry is low, and there is no penalty for
dropout.
• The materials are freely available, which creates the
opportunity for students to brows, pick and choose, and
follow their own agenda
Cons:
• fail to provide the kind of social environment that is
conducive to sustained engagement and learning.
• communities of strangers that lack shared practices that
would enable them to form supportive bonds of
interaction.
Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE
 LITERATURE SURVEY
Paper 2:“Turn on, Tune in, Drop out”: Anticipating
student dropouts in Mooc

Method: Exploring Factors Affecting Dropout through

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Operationalizations of Social Positioning
1. Posting Behavior
2. Social Network Behavior
3.Control variables
4.Survival Model

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 LITERATURE SURVEY

Paper3: Predicting Learning Effect by Learner’s

Behavior in MOOCs

The main contribution of this paper has two aspects

• analysis for learners’ learning behaviors
• we construct a cascade prediction model to predict
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whether a learner can earn a certificate in a course

K-means algorithm to learners’ behavior features to find the

separability between different categories

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 LITERATURE SURVEY
Paper 4: Likely to stop? Predicting Stopout in Massive
Open Online Courses

This paper mainly concentrates on:

• Why predict stopout? There are a number of reasons to predict
stopout.
• Interventions: Stopout prediction in advance allows us to
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design interventions that would increase engagement, provide
motivation and eventually prevent stopout.
• Identifying intentions: Certain special cases of stopout
prediction allow us to delineate the student intentions in taking
the MOOC.

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 LITERATURE SURVEY
• we define the stopout point as the time slice (week) a
learner fails to submit any further assignments or
exercise problems.
• To illustrate, if a learner submits his/her last assignment

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in the third module, he/she is considered to have stopped
out at week four.
• A submission (or attempt) is a submission of any problem
type (Homework, lab, exam etc.), as defined in MOOCdb.
• This definition narrows the research to learners who
consistently participate in the course by submitting
assignments.
• Using this definition for stopout we extracted the week
number when each learner in the cohort stopped out.

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 LITERATURE SURVEY
Paper 5: Predicting MOOC Dropout over Weeks Using
Machine Learning Methods

• click-stream data and forum data

• a linguistic analysis of the MOOC forum data can discover

valuable indicators for predicting dropout of students
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• only few MOOC students (roughly 5-10%) use the discussion
forums, so that dropout predictors for the remaining 90% would
be desirable
• support vector machines for predicting dropout between MOOC
course weeks in this paper.

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 LITERATURE SURVEY
Paper 6: Predicting Student Retention in Massive Open
Online Courses using Hidden Markov Models

With our model built, we would then like to answer the questions:
• Can we accurately predict whether a student is likely to drop the
MOOC in the near future?
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• Can we identify patterns in the behavior of students who
eventually drop the course, and thus suggest interventions to
prevent this from occurring?

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

LITERATURE SURVEY

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Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 LITERATURE SURVEY

Paper 6: Predicting Student Retention in Massive Open

Online Courses using Hidden Markov Models

Hidden Markov Models

• prove a suitable choice since the hidden state can model

latent characteristics of the student that influence their will cv
to persevere, and we can then infer these from their
observable interactions with the MOOC
• we build a multidimensional, continuous-valued feature
matrix for students across the time slices of the course
• we use a stacking ensemble approach

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 LITERATURE SURVEY
Paper7: Shared Task on Prediction of Dropout Over Time in
Massively Open Online Courses

• One of the biggest challenges in the shared task is that the

participants were only given data from one Coursera MOOC
as training and development data.
• Scripts were provided to parse the data into a form that
could be used for the task, e.g., aggregating entries per user cv
per week.
•

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 LITERATURE SURVEY

Paper 8: Predicting Dropout-Prone Students in E-

Learning Education System

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Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 LITERATURE SURVEY

Paper 9: Goals and Strategies of a Problem-based Learning

Facilitator

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Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 LITERATURE SURVEY

Paper 10: MOOCs and Open Education: Implications for

Higher Education

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Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 HOW BASE PAPER IS BETTER THAN
EXISTING TECHNIQUE
• Existing technique

In this system, instead of a single classifier, we

applied a two-layer cascading classifier with a combination of
three different machine learning classifiers to achieve better
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performance.

Thirteen features are used for dropout prediction.

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 PROPOSED MODEL

• Each sample in the database extracted from three dataset: course

content, student enrollment, learning access log, which are combined
together in the preprocess procedure.

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The diagram of the cascading classifier is described in Fig.
• We applied a two-layer cascading classifier with a combination of
three different machine learning classifiers.

• These classifiers are namely

Random Forest (RF)
SupportVectorMachine(SVM)
MultinomialLogisticRegression(MLR)

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

FLOWCHART OF OUR DIAGRAM

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Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

DIAGRAM OF CASCADING CLASSIFIER

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Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

SCREENSHOT OF PROJECT
MANAGEMENT TOOL

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Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 REFERENCES

Paper 1: “Shift happens: online education as a new paradigm in

learning,” Internet High. Educ., vol. 3, no. 1–2, pp. 41–61, 2000.

Paper 2: M. A. A. Dewan, F. Lin, D. Wen, and Kinshuk,

“Predicting Dropout-Prone Students in E-Learning Education
System,” in Uic-Atc-Scalcom-Cbdcom-Iop, 2015, pp. 1735–1740. cv
Paper 3: J. Liang, C. Li, and L. Zheng, “Machine learning
application in MOOCs: Dropout prediction,” in 2016 11th
International Conference on Computer Science Education
(ICCSE), 2016, no. Iccse, pp. 52–57.

Paper 4:C. Rose, G. Siemens, and C. P. Rosé, “Shared Task on Prediction

of Dropout Over Time in Massively Open Online Courses,” in EMNLP
2014 Workshop on Analysis of Large Scale Social Interaction in Moocs,
2014, pp. 39–41.

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 REFERENCES

Paper 5: C. E. Hmelosilver and H. S. Barrows, “Goals and Strategies

of a Problem-Based Learning Facilitator.,” vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 21–
39,2006.

Paper6: C. E. Hmelosilver and H. S. Barrows, “Goals and Strategies

of a Problem-Based Learning Facilitator.,” vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 21–
39,2006. cv
Paper7: M.Kloft, F. Stiehler, Z. Zheng, and N. Pinkwart, “Predicting
MOOC Dropout over Weeks Using Machine Learning Methods,” in
EMNLP 2014 Workshop on Analysis of Large Scale Social
Interaction in Moocs, 2014, pp. 60–65.

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

 REFERENCES

Paper8: D. Yang, T. Sinha, D. Adamson, and C. P. Rose, “‘Turn

on,Tune in, Drop out’: Anticipating student dropouts in Massive
Open Online Courses,” in NIPS Workshop on Data Driven
Education, 2013.

Paper9: Balakrishnan and G. Eecs, “Predicting Student Retention

in Massive Open Online Courses using Hidden Markov cv
Models,”2013.

Paper 10:C. Taylor, K. Veeramachaneni, and U. M. O’Reilly, “Likely to

stop? Predicting Stopout in Massive Open Online Courses,”
Comput. Sci., 2014.

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE

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Department of Computer Science & Engineering, DSCE