Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace,

1946 – 1986

(Zeev Maoz, Bruce Russett)

Structure

 Introduction
 Main questions of the article
 Theoretical Considerations: Normative Model and
Structural Model
 Research Design and Examples
 Results & Conclusion
 Theory Critics
Authors
Zeev Maoz
 Professor of Political Science and
Director of the “Correlates of War
Project” at the University of California,
Davis and Fellow at the
Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya,
Israel.
 Researches in the field of conflicts, war.
Bruce Russett
 Professor of Political Science and
International and Area Studies at the
Yale University.
 Former editor of Journal of Conflict
Resolution.
 What is Democratic Peace Theory about?

 Democratic states are in general about as conflict - and war-prone as

nondemocracies, but democracies have rarely clashed with one another in
violent conflict.

 Theory is based on Kant’s To Perpetual Peace: A Philosophical Sketch,

which outlines the fundamental principles necessary for democratic peace
- a republican constitution is the most desirable circumstance for perpetual
peace, and the absence of war is dependent on mutual respect between
states based on regime type (Kant, 1795).
Main Questions of the Article
 Does the degree of democratization of a dyad, in
addition to the effort of other factors, reduce its
likelihood to engage in conflict?

 What specific factors in the politics and norms of

democratic societies prevent them from fighting one
another?

 Why is it that the same factors that prevent democracies

from fighting one another fail to reduce the general rate
of conflict involvement of democratic states?
 Normative Model
 democracies do not fight each
other because norms of
compromise and cooperation
prevent their conflicts of
interest from escalating into
violent clashes.
Structural Model
 complex political
mobilization processes
impose institutional
constraints on the leaders of
two democracies confronting
each other to make violent
conflict unfeasible.
NORMATIVE ASSUMPTION 1: States, to the extent possible, externalize the
norms of behavior that are developed within and characterize their domestic
political processes and institutions.

 Democratic regimes are based on political norms that emphasize regulated

political competition through peaceful means. Winning does not require
elimination of the opponent. “Live and Let Live” ( democratic norms)

 In nondemocratic regimes political competition is likely to be more zero-sum.

The winner may take all, denying the loser the power or opportunity to rise
again. Political conflicts are resolved through violence and coercion.
Mistrust and fear within and outside government ( nondemocratic norms)
NORMATIVE ASSUMPTION 2: The anarchic nature of international politics implies
that a clash between democratic and nondemocratic norms is dominated by the latter,
rather than by the former.

 limits of the ability to apply certain norms in an anarchic international

system. In such a system, states put their survival above any other value they
seek to promote. democracies are more likely to shift norms when
confronted by a nondemocratic rival than vice versa.

What happens
 when two democracies confront one another?
 When a democratic state confronts a nondemocratic one?
 When a conflict rises between nondemocracies?
STRUCTURAL ASSUMPTION 1: International challenges require political leaders
to mobilize domestic support to their policies. Such support must be mobilized from
those groups that provide the leadership the kind of legitimacy that is required for
international action.

 International action in a democratic political system requires the mobilization of

both general public opinion and of a variety of institutions that make up the
system of government: the legislature, the political bureaucracies, and key interest
groups. process of national mobilization for war in democracies is difficult.
STRUCTURAL ASSUMPTION 2: Shortcuts to political mobilization of relevant
political support can be accomplished only in situations that can be appropriately
described as emergencies.

 Conflicts between a democracy and a nondemocracy are driven by the lack of

structural constraints on the mobilization and escalation process of the latter.
The democratic state finds itself in a no-choice situation.

 Conflicts between nondemocratic systems are likely to escalate because both

leaderships operate under relatively few structural constraints.
Other potential causes of Democratic Peace

 rich states do not fight one another..

 rapidly growing states..
 post-World War II alliances..
 HYPOTHESIS 1

The more democratic are both members of a pair of states, the less likely it is that
militarized disputes break out between them, and the less likely it is that any disputes that
do break out will escalate. This effect will operate independently of other dyadic
attributes (e.g., wealth, economic growth, contiguity, alliance, capability ratio).
HYPOTHESIS 2 (NORMATIVE MODEL)

The more deeply rooted are democratic norms in the political processes operating in
two states, the lower the likelihood that disputes will break out or that disputes will
escalate.
HYPOTHESIS 3 (STRUCTURAL MODEL)

The higher the political constraints on the executives of the two states, the lower the
likelihood that disputes will break out or that disputes will Escalate.
 Data and Measurement

Dependent Variables
• One data set is the MID data from the Correlates of War (COW)
project. These data were derived from a set developed for the
period 1816-1976.

• The other set of conflict data is that collected bythe ICB project.

The two datasets are not strongly related. Due to different

definitions and criteria, among politically relevant dyads there are
959 with MID conflicts begun or underway, only 260 (27%) of
which were identified by the ICB data set.
Independent Variables

• Democracy
• Degree of Institutional Constrain
• Democratic Norms
• Wealth
• Economic Growth
• Alliance
• Contiguity
• Military Capability Ratio
 Results

Table 1 shows the effect of the

independent variables, measured in
continuous terms (with exception of
alliance and contiguity), on the
dependent variables.
Table 2 shows the
effects of democratic norms (defined once in
terms of political stability and once in terms of
political executions) and institutional constraints
on conflict occurrence.
Table3 provides the parameter estimates from
these analyses. This table shows that generally
speaking, the normative model is related to the
log odds first for conflict and then for war
involvement in all of the cases and with all
three measures of political norms.
 CONCLUSION

1. The democratic peace phenomenon, that is, the relative

lack of conflict and complete absence of war
between democracies, is probably not a spurious
correlation.

2. These results are robust.

3. Both political constraints and democratic norms provide reasonably good

explanations of why democracies rarely fight each other.

4. The relationship between institutional constraints and measures of dispute and

war occurrence is not as robust as the relationship
between measures of democratic norms and the dependent variables.
Critics

 Realism is based on the assumption that the world is in constant state of

anarchy, where states are focused on survival and self-help. In a realist
world, cooperation is a possibility but it is difficult to uphold due to the
competitive, anarchical nature of the International system. Realism
dictates that states seek to maximize their power in relation to their
rivals.