RELIABILITY OF SEP

Chapter 4: EVALUATION OF RELIABILITY IN GENERATION

SYSTEMS
Electrical Engineering Degree
University Technical of Cotopaxi
Semester October2016-February 2017
By: Eng. Edwin M. Lema G, Mgtr.

October 2016-February 2017

Latacunga-Ecuador

1
 OBJECTIVE:
Determine the required amount of generation
capacity to ensure adequate compliance with
total demand.
EVALUATION OF STATIC EVALUATION OF
CAPACITY : OPERATIONAL CAPACITY :
• It relates to long term • It relates to short term
evaluations of the overall system assessments of the current
requirements. capacity required to meet
demand.
• It is the installed capacity that
• It is an operational problem.
must be planned and built prior to
the requirements of the system. • Determines the required
• Static reserve should allow reserve.
mantto. Major, forced exits and
overload.

2
• The deterministic methods have been superseded by:

•LOLP ó LOLE: IS THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF

DAYS IN WHICH THE MAXIMUM DAILY DEMAND
EXCEEDS THE AVAILABLE CAPACITY OF
GENERATION.
• INDICATES THE EXPECTED NUMBER OF DAYS IN
WHICH THE LOSS OF LOAD OR DEFICIENCY OF
GENERATION WOULD OCCUR.
• IT DOES NOT INDICATE THE SEVERITY OF THE
DEFICIENCY, OR THE FREQUENCY AND
DURATION OF LOAD LOSS.
• IS THE MOST POPULAR METHOD.
3
LOEE: IT IS THE EXPECTED ENERGY THAT WOULD NOT BE
SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM OF GENERATION BECAUSE THE
DEMAND EXCEEDS GENERATION CAPACITY.
• IN THIS CASE THE SEVERITY OF DEFICIENCY IS
MEASURED.
• THE COMPLEMENTARY VALUE: ENERGY SUPLIDA.
• THIS SOME SOMETIMES STANDARDS DIVIDING BY THE
DEMANDED ENERGY: RELIABLE ENERGY INDEX
• IT IS USED TO EVALUATE THE ADEQUATE AND COMPARED
WITH SYSTEMS OF DIFFERENT SIZE.

F&D: IT IS AN EXTENSION OF THE LOLE METHOD.

• IDENTIFIES THE EXPECTED FREQUENCY OF FINDING A
DEFICIENCY, LIKE THE EXPECTED DURATION.

4
 STATES OF GENERATION UNITS

ACTIVE

AVAILABLE UNAVAILABLE

IN COLD PLANNED UNSUITED

SERVICE RESERVE OUTPUT OUTPUT

5
TIME RELATIONS IN DIFFERENT STATES

HOURS OF THE ANALYSIS PERIOD (HPA)

(Number of hours the unit was in the active state)
HOURS AVAILABLE (HD) HOURS UNAVAILABLE (HID)
(Number of hours the unit was in the (Number of hours the unit was
availability state) in the unavailable state)
Hours in cold Hours in Hours in
Hours in
departure departure
storage (HR)
service(HS) planned
unplanned
(HSP)
(HSNP)
Hours Hours
for in
forced manto.
departur (HM)
e(HSF)

6
 THE SAME BASIC STRATEGY FOR ALL METHODS IS USED TO
EVALUATE ADEQUACY.

MODEL OF MODEL OF LOAD

GENERATION

MODEL OF RISK

Total
G Load

7
In the case of generation units, unavailability is known as: FOR
(Forced Outage Rate), which is estimated as :

• The FOR is an adequate

estimator of the probability of
failure, for BASIC UNITS.
• For cyclic units, the
FOR is not a good
estimator, since the
critical period occurs
during start-up.
• They have few hours of operation (in
maximum demand), but many starts
and stops.

8
 (1-Ps)/T
Cold In service
reserve
(Status "0") 1/D (State "2")

1/r Ps/T 1/r 1/m

1/T
Exit forced Exit forced
but not when
necessary 1/D necessary
(State "1") (State "3")

IEEE Task Group on Models for Peaking Service Units, A Four - State Model for
Estimation of Outage Risk for Units in Peaking Service, IEEE Trans. On PAS, Vol.
91, # 2, Marzo/Abril, 1972.

9
For these cyclic units the unavailability estimator can be
obtained with the following expression:

1 1

f (HSF) r T
FORp  f 
f (HSF)  HS 1 1 1
 
D r T
T = Mean time in cold storage between periods of
need.
D = Average time in service on demand.
m = Mean time in service between forced exit
occasions.
r = Mean time of repair per forced exit occurrence.
Ps = Probability of start failure.

10
Example 4.1.- Data of a gas unit:
HS = 640,73 h; HD = 6403,53 h; HSF= 205.03 h.
N Economic outings = 34,2; Nsf = 3,87; Ps = 0. Determine
FOR y FORp.

11
 LOAD MODEL:

• The purpose is to represent the annual trends of the

loads, either by seasons, weeks, daily or hours.
• The model should include variations by :
• weather conditions,
•Uncertainties for economic conditions (population,
PIB, etc.).
• The load trend is represented:
• Mean value at different historical intervals.
• Probability distributions (to model variations)

12
• Model of maximum daily demands during the study period. They
can be used directly or conform cumulative curves (DPLVC).
Normally this model is used for LOLP and LOLE.
• model of hourly demands, usually cumulatively arranged (Load
Duration Curves), are used to determine Expected Hourly Load
Loss and Expected Unused Power (HLOLE, EENS).
• These models are built on the basis of recent historical data (three
to five years).
•Uncertainty can be treated as:
• Calculate reliability indices for different possible maximum
demands and weigh the indices by the probability of
occurrence of the projected demand.
• Modify the basic model to include uncertainties.

13
 REPRESENTATION LOAD CURVE LOAD CURVE

DURAT
NORMAL PROBABILITIES 400
ION LOAD
HOURS MW HOURS MW DENSITY CUMULATIVE
350
300
1 238 1 187 0,04167 1,00000
250

LOAD (MW)
2 221 1 204 0,04167 0,95833
200
3 204 2 221 0,08333 0,91667
150
4 187 2 238 0,08333 0,83333
100
5 221 3 255 0,12500 0,75000
50
6 255 2 272 0,08333 0,62500 0
7 272 1 289 0,04167 0,54167

10

13

16

19

22
1

7
8 289 4 306 0,16667 0,50000 HOURS

9 306 5 323 0,20833 0,33333

10 306 3 340 0,12500 0,12500
11 306
12 323 LOAD DURATION CURVE
CUMULATIVE
13 323 DENSITY

14 323 1,200
0,200
15 323 1,000 0,180
16 340 0,160
17 340 0,800 0,140
0,120
18 340 0,600 0,100
19 323 0,080
0,400
20 306 0,060
21 272 0,200 0,040
22 255 0,020
0,000 0,000
23 255
204
187

221

238

255

272

289

306

323

340
24 238
LOAD (MW)

14
 MODEL OF GENERATION

• THE MODEL OF GENERATION USED IN THE METHOD OF

PROBABILITY OF LOAD LOSS IS THE TABLE OF
PROBABILITIES OF DISCONNECTED CAPACITIES.
• IT IS AN ARRANGEMENT OF DIFFERENT LEVELS OF
CAPACITIES DISCONTINUED WITH ITS CORRESPONDING
PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE.
• IF ALL UNITS OF THE SYSTEM ARE THE SAME THE TABLE IS
OBTAINED WITH THE BINOMIC DISTRIBUTION.
• HOWEVER, THE SITUATION IS NOT LIKELY TO REALLY EXIST.
• UNITS CAN BE COMBINED AND USING BASIC CONCEPTS OF
PROBABILITIES OBTAIN THE TABLE.

15
EXAMPLE 4.2: ( take of APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY METHODS TO
GENERATING CAPACITY PROBLEMS, AIEE TRANSACTIONS ON PAS, VOL.
79, PT. III, PAGS. 1165-1182, FEB./61)

UNITY CAPACITY
FOR
(MW)

1 100 0.02

2 100 0.03

CAPACIDAD
CAPACITY
ESTADO DE LAS
DISCONNECTED
CONNECTED STATES OF THE UNITS PROBABILIDAD
PROBABILITY CUMULATIVE
DESCO. UNIDADES
(MW) (MW)
(MW) 11 2 2
0 200 UP UP 0,9506 1,0000
100
0 100 D UP 0,0194 0,0494
100100 100 UP D 0,0294 0,0300 0,0488
200
200 0 D D 0,0006 0,0006

16
Example 4.3: Determine the Table of Disconnected Capacities for a
three-generator system; Units 1 and 2 of 3 Mw and the third of 5 Mw;
All have the same unavailability FOR = 0.02.

17
Example 4.4: Determine, for examples 4.2 and 4.3, the corresponding
table, including cumulative off-set probabilities of X Mw or more.

18
Example 4.5: Analyze the application of deterministic reserve criteria:%
of demand and supply the output of the largest unit. Consider 4
systems: system 1 has 24 x 10 Mw, FOR = 0.01; System 2 with 12x20
Mw and FOR = 0.01; System 3 with 12x20 Mw and FOR = 0.03; System 4
with 22x10 Mw. To use the first criterion assume that the demand for
systems 1,2,3 and 4 are respectively 200, 200, 200 and 183 Mw. (20%
reservation). For the second criterion assume that the demands are,
respectively, 230, 220, 220 and 210 Mw.

• In the following sheets the disconnected capacitance tables are

shown, with truncation for values smaller than 10-6, which allows to
obtain the risk of loss of load for each system.
• Pay attention to variations in risks (probabilities) for these systems
that can be considered similar.
• These indicators have large variations which shows the inconsistency
of the criteria, since the risk depends on the number of units, demand
and FOR.

19
 System capacity
PROBABILITIES COMBIN.
OUT IN
# units MW #units MW DENSITY ACCUMULATED
0 0 24 240 0,785678 1,000000 1
1 10 23 230 0,190467 0,214322 24
2 20 22 220 0,022125 0,023854 276
3 30 21 210 0,001639 0,001729 2.024
4 40 20 200 0,000087 0,000091 10.626
5 50 19 190 0,000004 0,000004 42.504
6 60 18 180 0,000000 0,000000 134.596

Criterion : % Demanda Criteria: output unit

Demand = 200 Mw Demand = 230 Mw
Reserve = 40 Mw; 20 % Reserve = 10 Mw
Risk = 0,000004 Risk = 0,023

20
 SYSTEM 2
# unid. capacity for
12 20 0,01

System capacity
PROBABILITIES COMBIN.
OUT IN
# units MW #units MW DENSITY ACCUMULATED
0 0 12 240 0,886385 1,000000 1
1 20 11 220 0,107441 0,113615 12
2 40 10 200 0,005969 0,006175 66
3 60 9 180 0,000201 0,000206 220
4 80 8 160 0,000005 0,000005 495
5 100 7 140 0,000000 0,000000 792
6 120 6 120 0,000000 0,000000 924

Criterion: % Demanda Criterion: salida unidad

Demand = 200 Mw Demand = 220 Mw
Reservation = 40 Mw; 20 % Reservation = 20 Mw
Risk =0,000206 Risk =0,0061
21
 SYSTEM 3
# unid. capacity for
12 20 0,03

System capacity
PROBABILITIES COMBIN.
OUT IN
# units MW #units MW DENSITY ACCUMULATED
0 0 12 240 0,693842 1,000000 1
1 20 11 220 0,257509 0,306158 12
2 40 10 200 0,043803 0,048649 66
3 60 9 180 0,004516 0,004846 220
4 80 8 160 0,000314 0,000330 495
5 100 7 140 0,000016 0,000016 792
6 120 6 120 0,000001 0,000001 924

Criterion: % Demand Criterion: Output unit

Demand = 200 Mw Demand = 220 Mw
Reservation = 40 Mw; Reservation = 20 Mw
20 %
Risk = 0,048
Risk = 0,0048
22
 SYSTEM 4
# unid. capacity for
22 10 0,01

System capacity
PROBABILITIES COMBIN.
OUT IN
# units MW #units MW DENSITY ACCUMULATED
0 0 22 220 0,801631 1,000000 1
1 10 21 210 0,178140 0,198369 22
2 20 20 200 0,018894 0,020229 231
3 30 19 190 0,001272 0,001336 1.540
4 40 18 180 0,000061 0,000063 7.315
5 50 17 170 0,000002 0,000002 26.334
6 60 16 160 0,000000 0,000000 74.613

Criterion: % Demand Criterion: Output unit

Demand = 183 Mw Demand = 210 Mw
Reservation = 37 Mw; Reservation = 10 Mw
20 %
Risk = 0,020
Risk = 0,000063
23
RECURSIVE METHOD TO BUILD THE TABLE

• IT IS AN ALGORITHM THAT ALLOWS TO BUILD THE TABLE

BY ADDING OR REMOVING A UNIT AT A TIME.
• UNITS OF GENERATION CAN BE CONSIDERED FROM TWO
OR SEVERAL STATES.

System with C Mw
multiple units and U
prob. Px they
leave X Mw.

¿ What is the probability that X

Mw?

24
• The probability will depend on the states that take the unit of
capacity C Mw and unavailability U.
• When it is in service (probability 1-U), the disconnection of the X Mw
would occur in the previous system. The probability will be (1-U) px.
• When forced output (probability U), only a forced output of (X-C) Mw
from the original system will determine an output of X Mw from the
new system. The probability will be: Up (X-C)
• La probabilidad de que salgan X Mw será:

p'( XMw)  (1  U)p( X)  Up( XC)

• This recursive method requires initialization.

25
 For the first unit:

p'(0)  1  U p'(C)  U
p'( XC)  0 X  C Mw
For the case of multi-state units, the probability that X Mw is
disconnected is given by:

n
p'( X)   aip( XCi )
i1
• n = Number of states (includes complete availability and
unavailability).
• ai = Probability of finding state i of the added unit.
• Ci = Capacity disconnected in the state i.

26
The cumulative states, ie the probability of disconnection X
Mw or more is given by :

P'( XMw)  (1  U)P( X)  UP( XC)

n
P'( X)   aiP( XCi )
i1

For the first unit :

P'(0)  1 P'(C)  U

P'( XC)  1 X  C Mw
27
Example 4.6: Construct the table of disconnected capacities for a
three unit system.

UNITY CAPACITY l m
Mw f/day r/day

1 25 0.01 0.49
2 25 0.01 0.49
3 50 0.01 0.49

28
Example 4.7: Consider the system of Example 4.6 but with the
third multi-staged unit, having the following characteristics :

State Ci ai
1 0 0.9600
2 20 0.0330
3 50 0.0070

29
LOAD LOSS INDICES

• Because there are different load models, several load loss

indices can be obtained: LOLP, LOLE; HLOLE, EENS.
• Remember that not all disconnection of generation
capacity produces loss of load.
• A loss of load will occur only when the generation capacity
remaining in service is exceeded by the level of the load.
• If we use the DPLVC we obtain the LOLE that determines
the expected number of days, in the specified period, in
which the maximum demand exceeds the available
generation capacity.

30
 • If the daily maximum individual demands are used, the LOLE is
given by :

n
LOLE   Pi (Ci  L i )
days/period

i1

• Ci = Capacity available on the day i.

• Li = Projected maximum demand for the day i.
• Pi(Ci- Li)= Probability of loss of load on day i. It is obtained from the
table of accumulated probabilities of disconnected capacity.

31
Example 4.8: Consider the 100 Mw capacity system of Example
4.6, and determine the LOLE, if the load data for a 365-day
period is:

Dmax (Mw) 57 52 46 41 34
No. Occurrences 12 83 107 116 47

32
If the DPLVC continuous curve is used, how do we determine
the LOLE?.

Ok reservation

tk

Time the load exceeds the indicated value 365

Each capacity disconnected Ok contributes

with tkpk
33
 n
LOLE   pk t k Units of time

k 1

If cumulative probability is used, the expression given by LOLE

is:

n
LOLE   Pk ( t k  t k 1)
k 1

34
Example 4.9: Consider a system of five units of 40 Mw c / u and FOR =
0.01. The load shall be represented by a straight line (shown in the
figure). The base of the abscissa is 365 days. The basis for the
ordinate is 160 Mw = 100%.
Load Model:

120

100

80
Dmax %

60

40

20

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
T%

35
Generation Model:

SYSTEM 1
# unid. capacity for
5 40 0,01

System capacity
PROBABILITIES
OUT IN
# units MW #units MW DENSITY ACCUMULATED
0 0 5 200 0,950990 1,000000
1 40 4 160 0,048030 0,049010
2 80 3 120 0,000970 0,000980
3 120 2 80 0,000010 0,000010
4 160 1 40 0,000000 0,000000
5 200 0 0 0,000000 0,000000

LOLE= 0.1506 days/year

36
CAPACITY EXPANSION

• Several years is required to design, build and put into

commercial operation generation plants.
• It is necessary, with sufficient anticipation to determine, the
new capacity required and when it should be implemented.
• One way is by analyzing the variation of the LOLE as the
maximum demand increases and we add different
generation alternatives, maintaining a single risk criterion.
• The level of risk is used to measure the adequacy of the
generation system in different years.
• This level of risk is a managerial decision, duly sustained.

37
Example 4.10: Consider the system of Example 4.9. Assume that it has
been decided to add units of 50 Mw and FOR = 0.01 to satisfy the load
that grows with an annual rate of 10%. In what years should the new
units operate to maintain an established level of risk?

• The level of risk equal to LOLE will be assumed for the case of
Demand of 160 Mw. That is 0.1506 days / year.
• Evidently it could have been a different LOLE. A technical -
economic study should support the alternative.
• The projected maximum demand (Mw) is as follows :

Dmax 160 176 194 213 234 258 283 312

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

As the Dmax reaches 312 Mw, the supply will be with an installed
capacity of 200 + 50 + 50 + 50 = 350 Mw.

38
The LOLE variation is determined for different maximum
demands, and for capacity generation systems from 200
(current) to 350 Mw. The load model of Exam

Dmax LOLE (días/año)

(MW) 200 Mw 250 Mw 300 Mw 350 Mw
100 0,001210
120 0,002005
140 0,086860 0,001301
160 0,150600 0,002625
180 3,447000 0,068580
200 6,083000 0,150500 0,002996
220 2,058000 0,036150
240 4,853000 0,136100 0,002980
250 6,083000 0,180000 0,004034
260 0,661000 0,011750
280 3,566000 0,107500
300 6,082000 0,290400
320 2,248000
340 4,880000
350 6,083000

39
40
• The case analyzed is idealized.
• Several schemes, with units of different sizes, different FORs
should be analyzed to determine the optimum scheme.
• The analysis must be technical and economic and cover a
sufficiently long horizon.
• The expansion plan should be revised as time progresses.

41
 EFFECT OF PROGRAMMED MAINTENANCE

• Up until now it has been considered that the installed

capacity was constant and the reserve was affected by
the forced exits of the generation units.
• Due to programmed outputs of the units, the installed
capacity can be modified and the disconnections table
also.
• Strategy: divide the analysis interval into periods that
give different available installed capacities due to the
programmed outputs and determine LOLE for each
period.
• The expression is as follows :

42
 n
LOLEanual   LOLEp
p 1
Baseline periods for analysis:

Monthly considering scheduled maintenance.

• The month is divided into intervals. Monthly LOLE is
obtained and the 12 are added to obtain the annual.
• Annual without maintenance: the capacity model is
constant. Criteria should be used to choose this method:
Duration of maintenance; Effects of maintenance and its
relationship with Dmax. It may not affect the annual LOLE,
especially in periods of low demand.
•Base of the worst period: Dmax is so big in a month or
period that governs the annual LOLE.

43
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEMAND PROJECTION.

• It can be described by a function of probability distribution, whose

parameters are obtained from past experience, the modeling of the
future load and some subjective criterion.
• It is extremely difficult to obtain sufficient historical data to
determine the distribution function.
• The literature suggests that uncertainty can be reasonably
described with the normal distribution.
• The average value of the distribution is the projected Dmax.
• The distribution is divided into class intervals, obtaining the
probability for each interval.
• The load representing the average value of the class interval is
assigned that probability.
• The LOLE is calculated for each load represented by the class
interval and multiplied by the probability of the interval.
44
 Standardized Normal Distribution
x f(x) F(x) Areas
-3,5 0,0009 0,0002
-2,5 0,0175 0,0062 0,0060
-1,5 0,1295 0,0668 0,0606
-0,5 0,3521 0,3085 0,2417
0,5 0,3521 0,6915 0,3829
1,5 0,1295 0,9332 0,2417
2,5 0,0175 0,9938 0,0606
3,5 0,0009 0,9998 0,0060

-3,5 -2,5 -1,5 -0,5 0,5 1,5 2,5 3,5

1
x
1  x2
F( x )   e 2 dx
 2
45
Example 4.11: Consider a generation system of 12 units of 5 Mw and
FOR = 0.01 for each. The Dmax. Projected is 50 Mw. The standard
deviation is 2% of Dmax. The monthly load duration curve is
represented by a straight line at a load factor of 70%. Determine the
LOLE considering a seven-step approximation in the distribution.

# units capacity for

12 5 0,01

system capacity
PROBABILITIES
OUT IN
# units MW #units MW DENSITY ACCUMULATED
0 0 12 60 0,88638487 1,00000000
1 5 11 55 0,10744059 0,11361513
2 10 10 50 0,00596892 0,00617454
3 15 9 45 0,00020097 0,00020562
4 20 8 40 0,00000457 0,00000464
5 25 7 35 0,00000007 0,00000007

46
# Uni. cap. C.C T C.C T C.C T C.C T C.C T C.C T C.C T
Des. conec % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Mw 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
0 60 127,66 125,00 122,4 120,00 117,65 115,38 113,2
1 55 117,02 114,58 112,2 110,00 107,84 105,77 103,8
2 50 106,38 104,17 102 100,00 98,04 3,27 96,15 6,41 94,34 9,43
3 45 95,74 7,09 93,75 10,42 91,84 13,61 90,00 16,67 88,24 19,61 86,54 22,44 84,91 25,16
4 40 85,11 24,82 83,33 27,78 81,63 30,61 80,00 33,33 78,43 35,95 76,92 38,46 75,47 40,88
5 35 74,47 42,55 72,92 45,14 71,43 47,62 70,00 50,00 68,63 52,29 67,31 54,49 66,04 56,60

0 0,88638487 0,00000000 0,00000000 0,00000000 0,00000000 0,00000000 0,00000000 0,00000000

1 0,10744059 0,00000000 0,00000000 0,00000000 0,00000000 0,00000000 0,00000000 0,00000000
2 0,00596892 0,00000000 0,00000000 0,00000000 0,00000000 0,01950628 0,03826232 0,05631058
3 0,00020097 0,00142535 0,00209348 0,00273434 0,00334956 0,00394066 0,00450903 0,00505594
4 0,00000457 0,00011338 0,00012688 0,00013982 0,00015225 0,00016419 0,00017568 0,00018673
5 0,00000007 0,00000314 0,00000333 0,00000352 0,00000369 0,00000386 0,00000402 0,00000418
LOLE % 0,00154187 0,00222369 0,00287768 0,00350551 0,02361500 0,04295104 0,06155743
LOLE %*720/100 0,011101443 0,016010543 0,020719272 0,025239651 0,170027977 0,309247521 0,443213498
probability 0,0060 0,0606 0,2417 0,3829 0,2417 0,0606 0,0060
LOLEc 0,00006635 0,00097020 0,00500848 0,00966489 0,04110092 0,01873964 0,00264910
LOLE total 0,07819958

47
ENERGY LOSS INDEX

120

100

80
Dmax %

60

40

20

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
T%

n
LOEE   Ek pk
k 1

48
Example 4.12: Consider the generating system and load curve of
Example 4.9. Determine the expected energy not served.

49