Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Peter J. Vickery
Applied Research Associates, Inc.
8537 Six Forks Road, Suite 600
Raleigh, NC, 27615
1
Summary
New Hurricane Simulation Model
Windfield
Filling (weakening after landfall)
Holland B (pressure-wind Relationship)
Tracks and pressures (Landfall location and intensity)
Results in Lower Design Wind Speeds
Moving to strength wind speed map (wind load factor = 1 for
strength design, 0.63 for ASD)
Strength map corresponds to 700 year RP
ASCE 7-05 Equivalent Map = V700/√1.6
Cat III and IV structures use 1700 year RP winds
Cat I structures use 300 year RP winds
100(45)
85(38)
110(49)
90(40)
90(40) 110(49)
120(54)
120(54)
110(49)
100(45)
110(49)
90(40)
120(54)
130(58) 130(58)
90(40) 140(63)
90(40)
100(45) 120(54)
110(49)
100(45)
110(49)
Location Vmph (m/s) 110(49)
120(54) Hawaii 102 (45) 120(54)
130(58) Guam 155 (69) 130(58)
Virgin Islands 132 (59) 140(63)
American Samoa 125 (56)
130(58)
Puerto Rico
Notes:
1. Values are nominal design 3-second gust wind speeds in miles per hour (m/s) at 33 ft (10m) above ground for Exposure C category.
2. Linear interpolation between contours is permitted. Expanding the Realm of Possibility 3
3. Islands and coastal areas outside the last contour shall use the last wind speed contour of the coastal area.
V700/√1.6
ASCE 7-05 ASCE 7-10 Equivalent
120(54)
130(58)
108(48)
140(63)
114(51)
114(51) 140(63)
150(67)
150(67)
140(63) 130(58) 140(63)
120(54) 150(67)
110(49) 160(72)
160(72) 170(76)
170(76)
114(51) 180(80)
150(67)
120(54)
130(58)140(63) 180(80)
110(49)
120(54)
130(58)
Location Vmph (m/s)
140(63) Hawaii 129 (58) 150(67) 160(72)
150(67) Guam 196 (88) 170(76)
158(71) Virgin Islands 167 (75)
American Samoa 158 (71)
158(71) Puerto Rico
Notes:
1. Values are nominal design 3-second gust wind speeds in miles per hour (m/s) at 33 ft (10m) above ground forExpanding
Exposure C category.
the Realm of Possibility 5
2. Linear interpolation between contours is permitted.
700 Year Return Period Winds
130(58)
140(63)
115(52) 150(67)
160(72)
122(55)
150(67)
122(55)
160(72)
160(72)
150(67)
140(63) 130(58)
120(54)
150(67)
116(52) 160(72)
170(76)
170(76) 180(80)
180(80)
190(85)
116(52) 122(55)
160(72) 200(89)
120(54) 130(58)
150(67)
140(63) 200(89)
130(58)
140(63) Location Vmph (m/s)
150(67) Hawaii 143 (64) 160(72) 170(76)
167(75) Guam 211 (94)
Virgin Islands 176 (79) 180(80)
American Samoa 169 (76)
167(75) Puerto Rico
Notes:
1. Values are nominal design 3-second gust wind speeds in miles per hour (m/s) at 33 ft (10m) above ground for Exposure C category.
2. Linear interpolation between contours is permitted. Expanding the Realm of Possibility 7
3. Islands and coastal areas outside the last contour shall use the last wind speed contour of the coastal area.
! !
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Simulation Methodology
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Ste ali ze S nd RM
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S a m t e I
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Step 2: s
re
5 Squa ew and V t
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S am p le lue of I
p u te new va W (2008)
Com
t e P , B, RM a nd Wadhera
Compu from Vickery
c
B, RMW
2000 Current
Parameter Model Model Increase
Number of full scale wind speed traces (with maximum wind 63 245 390%
recorded) used to validate windfield model
Number of dropsonde profiles used to verify marine 0 650
boundary layer model
Number of hurricanes used to develop Holland B model 17 35 100%
Number of landfall hurricanes 167 189 13%
Number of landfall intense hurricanes (defined by pressure) 70 84 20%
Number of hurricanes used to develop filling model 38 57 68%
Number of years of landfall data used to develop model 96 107 11%
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930
910 910 910
890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
SW FL SE FL
990 990 990
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930
910 910 910
890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950 950 950
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
SW FL SE FL NE FL GA and SC
990 990 990 990
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950 950 950
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950 950 950
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Central Pressure
(mb)
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950 950 950
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 (mb) 950 950 950
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950 950 950
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950 950 950
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
990 990
Expanding the Realm of Possibility 13
970 970
990 990
970 970
Landfall Pressures
950 950
930 930
910 910
890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950 950 950
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950 950 950
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950 950 950
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970
950 950
(mb)
(mb)
930 930
910 910
890 890
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)
40
30
20
Current Model
10
Vickery, et al (2000)
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
MilePost
60
50
(m/sec)
40
30
20
Current Model
10
Vickery, et al (2000)
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
MilePost
Betsy (LA)
Peak Gust Wind Speed (m/sec)
Carman
Carla
Audrey
80
Labor Day
Camille
Andrew
60
Hazel
1926 - Miami
Charley
Donna
Modeled
40 Simulated
Powell & Reinhold (2007)
Powell (2007)
Powell & Aberson (2001)
20 Dunion et al, (2003)
HWind
FIU FCHLPM
Houston & Powell (2003)
Goldman & Ushijima (1974)
0
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)
Audrey
Katrina
80
1900
Rita
Camille
60 60
(m/sec)
(m/sec)
Betsy
Carla
Audrey
1932
Celia
Carmen
Andrew
40 40
20 20
0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
MS/AL Florida
100 100
Donna
Frederic
Peak Gust Wind Speed
80 80
1926
Labor Day
60 60
Andrew
(m/sec)
Camille
1926
Charley
Katrina
40 40
Elena
20 20
0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Hazel
Peak Gust Wind Speed
Gracie
Donna
Hazel
1944
Fran
Floyd
60
1911
60
(m/sec)
(m/sec)
Hugo
Helene
Diana
40 Able 40
Isabel
20 20
0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
VA/MD/DE/NJ NY/CT/RI
100 100
Peak Gust Wind Speed
1944
1938
Hazel
Ione
Isabel
Carol
60 60
(m/sec)
(m/sec)
40
Donna
40
Donna
Gloria
Floyd
20 20
0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Eloise
80 80 80
Easy
(m/sec)
(m/sec)
60 60 60
(m/sec)
Charley
1926
40 40 40
Easy
Kate
20 20 20
0 0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (Years) Return Period (Years) Return Period (Years)
(m/sec)
60 60
Andrew
Donna
Charley
1926
Andrew
40 40 40
20 20 20
0 0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (Years) Return Period (Years) Return Period (Years)
80 80
(m/sec)
60
(m/sec)
60
1928
1949
40 40
Dora
David
20 20
0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (Years) Return Period (Years)
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950 950 950
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
SW FL SE FL NE FL GA and SC
990 990 990 990
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950 950 950
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Central Pressure
Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950 950 950
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Central Pressure
(mb)
0.6
0.1 0.5
0.4
0.05
0.3
0 0.2
0.1
0
All IH Storms Category 3 Category 4 Category 5
Storms Storms Storms
B= 0.75
50 B= 1
B= 1.3
40 B= 1.5
(ms )
-1
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)
1020
1010
1000
Pressure e (hPa)
990
980
B= 0.75
970 B= 1
960 B= 1.3
B= 1.5
950
940
930
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)
B= 0.75 B
RMW
50 B= 1 p( r ) p c p exp
B=
B=
1.3
1.5
r
40
(ms )
1/ 2
-1
30 RMW B
RMW B Bp exp[ ( ) ] 2 2
r r f fr
20 VG ( )
r 4 2
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Bp
VG max
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW) e
1020
1010
1000
Pressure e (hPa)
990
980
B= 0.75
970 B= 1
960 B= 1.3
B= 1.5
950
940
930
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)
1000 1000
Pressure(hPa)
Pressure(hPa)
980 980
960 960
940 940
1000 1000
Pressure(hPa)
Pressure(hPa)
980 980
960 960
940 940
1000 1000
Pressure(hPa)
Pressure(hPa)
980 980
960 960
940 940
980
960 40
940
Data 20
920 Data
Fit Fit
900 0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 0 25 50 75 100 125 150
Radius (km) Radius (km)
Hurricane Andrew (Dp=88 mb, RMW=13 km, B=1.40) Hurricane Andrew (Dp=88 mb, RMW=13 km, B=1.40)
1020 80
1000
980
960 40
940
20
920 Data Data
Fit Fit
900 0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 0 25 50 75 100 125 150
Radius (km) Radius (km)
Hurricane Bertha (Dp=44 mb, RMW=43 km, B=1.45) Hurricane Bertha (Dp=44 mb, RMW=43 km, B=1.45)
1020 80
Expanding the Realm of Possibility 30
1000
-1 )
Statistical Model for B
2.00
1.75
1.50
Holland B Parameter
1.25
1.00
0.75
SQRT(A) RMW f
A
p
2 Rd Ts ln1
p c e
1.5
B
1.0
B from Equation 5
0.5 B from Equation 6
B Estimated from Wind Modeling
Linear (B Estimated from Wind Modeling)
0.0
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80
SQRT(A)
Elena Frederic
1.5
B
Ike
1.0
"
1.19,0.76
" 1.22,0.83
" 1.20,0.81
" 1.22,0.91
" 1.23,0.97
2.02,1.22
" 1.23,1.01
"
" 1.24,1.03
" 1.25,1.05
2.09,1.55
Expanding the
"
Realm of Possibility 33
Effect of B on Predicted
Wind Speeds
Wilmington, NC
200
B from Vickery, et al. (2000)
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)
100
50
0
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)
Miami, FL Expanding the Realm of Possibility 34
50
Peak
Effect
0 of B on Predicted
Miami, FL
200
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)
150
100
50
B from Vickery, et al. (2000)
B from Vickery and Wadhera (2008)
0
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)