1.

5 degrees & Degrowth

Points for discussion

ETH Zurich
Launch of Postgrowth Zurich
11/12/2018

Dr Julia Steinberger
Visiting Professor, University of Geneva
Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds
J.K.Steinberger@leeds.ac.uk @jksteinberger http://lili.leeds.ac.uk
 Outline
 Why 1.5 degrees?
 What does 1.5 degrees mean for
• Energy & resource use?
• Economic growth?
• Interlude! IPCC models & economic growth
• Interlude #2! Who came first, growth or capitalism?
• Social (human) well-being?
 What previously proposed solutions or
worldviews are no longer viable?
 Implications for moving forward.
 Why 1.5 degrees?
IPCC Special report on 1.5 degrees “SR15”, Oct 2018
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/
 Why 1.5 degrees, not 2, 3, 4?
Discussion time!
• What level are we at now, in terms of warming
comparing to pre-industrial levels?
• What is the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees
warming?
– Focus of Chapter 3 of SR15. Go read it. Seriously.
• What is the difference between 2 and 3 or 4
degrees warming?

• Also issues with estimation and representation of impacts in

IPCC reports. See “What Lies Beneath”
http://climateextremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/What-Lies-Beneath-V3-LR-
Blank5b15d.pdf
Which trajectory are we on right now?

4 deg

2.4 deg

1.5 deg

Figure by Bob Kopp based on data from the Global Carbon Budget
Importance of peak emissions
(i.e. start reducing NOW)
Take home message

October 8, 2018 7
 What does 1.5 degrees mean for…?
Energy & resource use
• Most scenarios involves “negative” emissions
(BECCS & others).
– Technology doesn’t exist in reality, just a knob to 52
turn on the model to buy time: more emissions GJ/cap
now, remove later in century. in 2020

• Some scenarios don’t (or not as much):

– Grubler et al 2018, Nature Energy, Low Energy
Demand (LED)
– Van Vuuren et al 2018, Nature Climate Change
– IRENA roadmap to 2050 (renewable energy org)
– Ecofys 25
– Some discussed here https://www.vox.com/energy-and- GJ/cap
environment/2018/5/7/17306008/climate-change- in 2050
global-warming-scenarios-ambition
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From Figure 3 of Grubler et al 2018
 Rapidity of necessary transition
 Reduce CO2 emissions by half (roughly) by 2030
 Down to zero by 2050.
 Impossible to ramp up renewable generation fast
enough to compensate for reduction in fossil fuels.
 Also issues with EROI (see Michael Dale’s GEMBA model).
 If we succeed in reducing emissions, we face decades
(at least) of reduced energy supply.
 There is no empirical evidence that decrease in energy is
compatible with economic growth (see Kallis 2017, Kallis et
al 2018 for recent reviews).
 So yes, economic degrowth AND energy use degrowth.

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Interlude: IPCC models and
economic growth

1. No scenarios without $ growth.

2. Lowest growth are SSP3:
fragmentation & conflicts.
3. Econ growth  welfare.

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 Some modelling problems?
• For well-being perspective, need fundamentally
different model structure (multi-dimensional, satiable,
universal, see Lamb & Steinberger 2017).
• Optimizing, maximising & equilibrium (CGE) models
not likely to be fit for purpose – but they are
workhorses of modern economics.

Other more basic problem?

• Focusing too much on growth. From a systems
analysis perspective, growth is not a cause but an
effect of the economic system we call capitalism.
• Interlude #2!
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 Structural characteristics of
capitalism
• Domination, power
(over people and
nature, Bookchin)
• Profit imperative
• Wealth accumulation
• Commodification
• …

Stabilisation
mechanism (effect)

Causes of growth
Growth
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 Core tendencies of capitalism
(based on Pirgmaier 2018)
Core tendencies of capitalism Social consequences Environmental
consequences
1. Overproduction: Profits Not distinguish needs Massive environmental
from production require a vs. wants. degradation.
material basis.
2. Technological Dynamism: Lower prices: higher Labour productivity
Necessary for competitiveness, consumption. increase = higher
increase labour productivity. Control labour. resource throughput.
Not neutral. Stocks grow.
3. Appropriation: control of Harm & conflicts at Impacts at locations of
expanding resource extraction locations of extraction extraction & globally
(trade, war etc). “Frontiers” (new & old). through resource use.
Moore
4. Commodification: necessary Expands & reinforces Marketisation of
for expansion of capital. market logic ecosystem services,
throughout society. carbon offsets, etc. 14
 Pirgmaier 2018 tendencies of capitalism (cont.)
Core tendencies of Social consequences Environmental
capitalism consequences
5. Overconsumption: Creation of new “needs” & Expansion of trade &
necessary counterpart to wants, consumer debt, communication
overproduction. geographic expansion. infrastructures.
6. Acceleration: reduced Digitally facilitated Acceleration in crops &
turnover time & exploitative gig economy, livestock, throwaway
compressed space. zero hours contracts etc. products lead to waste.
7. Alienation: effects of Alienation from work, … and nature.
capitalism on human beings. production, other humans
8. Financialisation: current Finance permeates Financial imperatives
dominant form of businesses and society, outweigh environmental
capitalism. diverts profits away from goals every time.
public streams.
9. Concentration: maintain Inequality - the rich get 'Big' business, finance
and expand relations of richer, the poor poorer. and States protect
power (incl. profits and capital, not environment
market shares) 15
Implications for climate research & policy

Worldviews that are no longer viable

• Gradual, incremental proposals STOP!
– Carbon tax or price that gets ramped up…
– Anything based on equilibrium economics.
– Anything apolitical, or taking a purely technocratic view.

Need to move to transformative change agenda

– Overtly political: only way to shut down some industry GO!
branches (fossil fuel extracting, using and related) and
expand others;
– Socially progressive, focusing on jobs (i.e. role within
society) & well-being. See Sunrise Movement in USA &
Green New Deal;
– Addressing demand as well as supply;
– War-time economic effort focusing on low carbon welfare
of population (not production & consumption for sake of
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profit, but sake of collective survival).
 What does 1.5 degrees mean for…?
Social outcomes: well-being
• Energy requirements of
well-being show saturation
behaviour (Steinberger &
Roberts 2010)
• Energy requirements of Steinberger & Roberts 2010, Ecological
well-being decrease fast Economics (data update).

over time (same)

• Need new & better analytic
framework to understand
social, geographic,
economic & political
aspects of energy
requirements of well-being.

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 A safe and just operating space for
humanity: below planetary boundaries and
above social thresholds
Selected National Results
Switzerland Sri Lanka

O’Neill, Fanning, Lamb & Steinberger 2018, Nature Sustainability

Where We
Need to Be

?
 Consequences so far?
• Aiming for 1.5 degrees is necessary to avoid future
disaster, and to lower magnitude of disaster.
• This means reducing energy use, and economic
activity.
• But economic growth is driven by structure of
capitalism (effect, not cause).
• Double challenge:
(1) Figure out how to organise societies with high well-
being at low energy use;
(2) Dismantle global fossil capitalism.

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 Dismantling fossil
capitalism? How?

http://medium.com/@JKSteinberger/

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Photo by DAVID HOLT
 Thank you.
• Any questions?

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