Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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Outline
Learning objectives
Introduction
Definitions
Demand Forecasts
Factors affecting demand forecasting
Role of forecasting in SCM
Characteristics of Forecasting
Forecasting methods
Application of forecasting
Conclusion
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Learning Objectives
To explain the term forecasting and
demand forecasting
To determine the factors that influence
forecasting
To establish the role of forecasting in
supply chain
To apply forecasting in supply chain
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DEFINITIONS
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FORECASTING IN SCM
• In the modern supply chain, forecasting is
necessary for companies that manufacture
items for inventory and that are not made
to order.
• Manufacturers will use material forecasting
to ensure that they produce the level of
material that satisfies their customers
without producing an overcapacity situation
where too much inventory is produced and
remains on the shelf.
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FORECASTING IN SCM
• Forecasts are developed for a company’s
finished goods, components and service
parts.
• The forecast is used by the production team
to develop production or purchase order
triggers, quantities and safety stock levels.
• The forecast is not static and should be
reviewed by management on a regular basis.
This is to ensure that information on future
trends, the internal or external environment
is incorporated into the forecast to give a
more accurate calculation.
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Discussion
Discuss how procurement personnel use
the forecasting technique ?
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Demand Forecasting?
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Factors affecting demand
forecasting
External factors
General state of the economy
Government actions
Consumer tastes
Public image of product
Competitor actions
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Factors affecting demand
forecasting
Internal factors
• Product service /design
• Price & advertising promotions
• Packaging design
• Salesperson qouta& incentives
• Expansion/ contraction of geographical
market target areas
• Product mix
• Backlog pricing
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ROLE OF FORECASTING IN
SUPPLY CHAIN
MANAGEMENT
Forecasting is designed to help decision-making and
planning in the present.
Introduces change in an organisation
Used for both push and pull processes
Management uses forecast to plan e.g. product types,
services to offer, facilities & equipment.
Management plans the use of the system, e.g. planning
inventory levels, employment levels & purchasing activities.
Forecasts are usually part of the organization’s strategic
plan, made covering a time period b/w 2-15 yrs,
They can be used to plan profits, revenue& productivity
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Assumptions in Forecasting
There are several assumptions about forecasting:
There is no way to state what the future will be with
complete certainty.
Regardless of the methods that we use there will always be
an element of uncertainty until the forecast horizon has
come to pass.
There will always be blind spots in forecasts, for example,
one can not forecast completely new technologies for which
there are no existing paradigms.
Providing forecasts to policy-makers will help them
formulate social policy. The new social policy, in turn, will
affect the future, thus changing the accuracy of the forecast.
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Examples of forecasting
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ROLE OF FORECASTING IN
SCM
Functions of the S.C. are affected in the
short-run by product demand & in the
long run by new products & processes,
technological advances & changing
markets.
Forecasts of product demand determine
the quantity of inventory needed & the
quantities to produce& materials
required from suppliers to meet
forecasted demand.
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ROLE OF FORECASTING IN
SCM
The forecasts will determine the mode
of transportation needed & the
location of plants, warehouse &
distribution centres in order to deliver
goods & services on time.
Accurate forecasting determines the
quantity of inventory a company must
keep at various points along its supply
chain
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Challenges of Forecasts
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Forecasting Methods
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Forecasting Methods
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Applications of forecasting
• Supply chain management - Forecasting can
be used in Supply Chain Management to
make sure that the right product is at the
right place at the right time. Accurate
forecasting will help retailers reduce excess
inventory and therefore increase profit
margin. Accurate forecasting will also help
them meet consumer demand.
• Transport planning and Transportation
forecasting
• Product forecasting
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