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Distributions

Distributions

A distribution describes the ‘shape’ of a batch of


numbers
• the characteristics of a distribution can sometimes
be defined using a small number of numeric
descriptors called ‘parameters’
• There are two types of distributions
• Discrete – Binomial, Poisson
• Continuous – Normal
Binomial Distribution

 A fixed number of observations (trials), n


 e.g., 15 tosses of a coin; 20 patients; 1000 people surveyed
 A binary random variable
 e.g., head or tail in each toss of a coin; defective or not
defective light bulb
 Generally called “success” and “failure”
 Probability of success is p, probability of failure is 1 – p
 Constant probability for each observation
 e.g., Probability of getting a tail is the same each time we
toss the coin
Binomial Distributions
Take the example of 5 coin tosses. What’s the probability
that you flip exactly 3 heads in 5 coin tosses?

Solution:
One way to get exactly 3 heads: HHHTT

What’s the probability of this exact arrangement?


P(heads)xP(heads) xP(heads)xP(tails)xP(tails)
=(1/2)3 x (1/2)2

Another way to get exactly 3 heads: THHHT


Probability of this exact outcome = (1/2)1 x (1/2)3 x
(1/2)1 = (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
Binomial Distributions

In fact, (1/2)3 x (1/2)2 is the probability of each


unique outcome that has exactly 3 heads and 2
tails.

So, the overall probability of 3 heads and 2 tails is:


(1/2)3 x (1/2)2 + (1/2)3 x (1/2)2 + (1/2)3 x (1/2)2 +
….. for as many unique arrangements as there are—
but how many are there??
Binomial Distribution
Outcome Probability
THHHT (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
HHHTT (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
TTHHH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
HTTHH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2 The probability
5 (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
ways to HHTTH of each unique
  (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
arrange 3 HTHHT outcome (note:
heads in THTHH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
 3 5 trials HTHTH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
they are all
equal)
HHTHT (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
THHTH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
HTHHT (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
10 arrangements x (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
5C3 = 5!/3!2! = 10

5
P(3 heads and 2 tails) =   x P(heads)3 x P(tails)2 =
 3

10 x (½)5=31.25%
Typical Binomial Dist. problems

Cohort study (or cross-sectional):


– The number of exposed individuals in your sample that
develop the disease
– The number of unexposed individuals in your sample that
develop the disease
Case-control study:
– The number of cases that have had the exposure
– The number of controls that have had the exposure
Poisson Distribution
• Poisson distribution is for counts—if events happen at
a constant rate over time, the Poisson distribution
gives the probability of X number of events occurring in
time T.
The Poisson distribution models counts, such as the number of new cases of
SARS that occur in women in New England next month.
The distribution tells you the probability of all possible numbers of new cases,
from 0 to infinity. If X= # of new cases next month and X ~ Poisson (), then
the probability that X=k (a particular count) is:

k 
e
p( X  k ) 
k!
Poisson Distribution
• For example, if new product is sold at a rate of
about 2 per day, then these are the
probabilities that: 0,1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, to 1000 to 1
million to… sales will occur in the next day:
X P(X)

0 =.135

1 =.27

2 =.27

3 =.18

4 =.09

… …
Poisson Distribution

1a. If calls to your cell phone are a Poisson


process with a constant rate =2 calls per hour,
what’s the probability that, if you forget to turn
your phone off in a 1.5 hour movie, your phone
rings during that time?

1b. How many phone calls do you expect to get


during the movie?
Poisson Distribution
1a. If calls to your cell phone are a Poisson process with a constant
rate =2 calls per hour, what’s the probability that, if you forget to
turn your phone off in a 1.5 hour movie, your phone rings during that
time?
X ~ Poisson (=2 calls/hour)
P(X≥1)=1 – P(X=0)

(2 * 1.5) 0 e 2(1.5) (3) 0 e 3


P( X  0)   e 3  .05
0! 0!
P(X≥1)=1 – .05 = 95% chance

1b. How many phone calls do you expect to get during the movie?

E(X) = t = 2(1.5) = 3
Normal Distribution

180
168
156
144
 
132
120
108
96
84
72
60
48
36
24
12
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

• symmetric around the mean ()


• maximum height at 
• standard deviation () is at the point of
inflection
Normal Distribution

• a single normal curve exists for any


combination of , 
– these are the parameters of the distribution
and define it completely

• a family of bell-shaped curves can be


defined for the same combination of , ,
but only one is the normal curve
Normal Distribution

• P(- <=  <= +) = .683

• +/-1 = .683
• +/-2 = .955

• +/-3 = .997
180
168
156
144
132
120
108

• 50% = +/-0.67
96
84
72

• 95% = +/-1.96
60
48
36
24

• 99% = +/-2.58
12
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Normal (and almost) distributions
Normal Distribution

• lots of natural phenomena in the real world


approximate normal distributions—near
enough that we can make use of it as a
model
• e.g. height
• phenomena that emerge from a large
number of uncorrelated, random events
will usually approximate a normal
distribution
Normal Distribution
z-scores
• standardizing values by re-expressing
xi  x
them in units of the standard deviation
• measured away from the mean (where
Zi 
the mean is adjusted to equal 0) s

• z-scores often summarized in table form as a CDF


(cumulative density function)
• Shennan, Table C (note errors!)
• can use in various ways, including determining how
different proportions of a batch are distributed
“under the curve”
Normal Distribution
Neanderthal stature
• population of Neanderthal skeletons
• stature estimates appear to follow an
approximately normal distribution…
– mean = 163.7 cm
– sd = 5.79 cm

Quest. 1: what proportion of the population is >165 cm?


• z-score = ? mean = 163.7 cm
sd = 5.79 cm
• z-score = (165-163.7)/5.79 = .23 (+)
Normal Distribution

• z-score = .23 (+)


• using Table C-2
– cdf(.23) = .40905
– 40.9%
Quest. 2: 98% of the population fall below
what height?
• Cdf(x)=.98
• can use either table
– Table C-1; look for .98
– Table C-2; look for .02
– both give you a value of 2.05 for z
• solve z-score formula for x: xi  Z i   x
• x = 2.05*5.79+163.7 = 175.6cm

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