Did the Iraq wars mark a

fundamental transformation in
the conduct of warfare?
Historical Background

Comparison – time T versus T-1

How does current change compare
previous changes?
Cover a lot history - @1400 onward
Today

Origins of current debate

Central concept – Revolutions in
Military Affairs
General observations about military
innovation/change and dynamics
Origins of current debate

Alvin Toffler, The Third Wave (1980)

Agricultural Revolution (8,000 B.C.)
Industrial Revolution (1800 )
Information revolution
(contemporary)
Origins of Current Debate

Soviet Fears
Mid 1970s-80s: a “military
technological revolution”
Information/computer technology
will change military
technology/weapons/capabilities
Soviet Union not positioned to
exploit, U.S. is
Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA)

Military historians – periods of radical

change as opposed to gradual
evolution
Are we in midst of one such period –
like introduction of gunpowder and
airpower?
RMA, defined

“a major change in the nature of warfare

brought about by the innovative application of
new technologies which, combined with
dramatic changes in military doctrine and
operational and organizational concepts,
fundamentally alters the character and
conduct of military operations”.
Andrew Marshall, Director, DoD Office of Net
Assessment
RMA, defined

An RMA occurs “when the application of new

technologies…combines with innovative
organizational concepts and organizational
adaptation in a way the fundamentally alters
the character and conduct of conflict.
Andrew Krepinevich, “From Cavalry to
Computer” National Interest, Fall 1994
RMA, elements

Technological change
Doctrinal change
Organizational change
Historical RMAs

Gunpowder
Napoleonic
Industrial
Airpower
Nuclear
RMAs and Military Innovation

Generalizations/patterns

What drives them

What course they take
Generalization #1

RMAs almost always involve new

technologies
One exception with no
technological component
Generalization #2

Technology not limited to weapons

– war is not just a clash of arms
Logistics – moving soldiers and
supplies
Communications
Intelligence/surveillance
Generalization #3

Strategic competition encourages

military-technological innovation

Asia v. Europe and weaponizing

gunpowder
Generalization #4

Offense/defense struggle drives

innovation
Periods of “offense dominance” and
others of “defense dominance”
RMAs sometimes change
offense/defense balance dramatically
Perceptions of which dominates
sometimes wrong
Generalization #5

Frequency of RMAs increasing?

More rapid pace technological

change generally
Rise of military focused R & D
Generalization #6

RMAs often associated with a first

adopter’s advantage
RMAs often associated with
unexpectedly easy military victories
Advantage diminishes
Emulation
Counter-measures