Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Chapter 10
Outline
• Measuring risk and return
– Expected return and return Variance
– Realized versus expected return
– Empirical distribution of returns
Small Stocks: A portfolio of stocks of U.S. firms whose market values are in
the bottom 10% of all stocks traded on the NYSE.
An investment of $100 in Treasury bills 1925 would be worth about $2000. An average
of 3.78% annual return.
While small stocks realized the highest return, it was followed by S&P 500 (10.2%),
international stocks (9%), corporate bonds (6.2%) and finally Treasury bills.
Comparing to how prices changed over these years (CPI index) all of the investments
grew faster than inflation (average 3%)
E[R] = å pR R
R
SD[R] = s R = Var(R)
Expected Return and Variance for BFI
s R = 0.045 = 21.2%
Realized versus Expected Performance
Distinguish between realized returns and expected
returns
YTD Apple’s stock price went from $532 to $441 and paid
two dividends of $2.65 and $3.05
Calculating Realized Returns
Realized Return over year t, t+1
Divt+1 + Pt+1 Divt+1 Pt+1 - Pt
Rt+1 = -1 = +
Pt Pt Pt
With quarterly dividends
1+ Rt+1 = (1+ RQ1 )(1+ RQ2 )(1+ RQ3 )(1+ RQ4 )
1 T
sR = å
T -1 t=1
(Rt - R) 2
Empirical Distributions of different Portfolios
Excess Returns
Excess Return: the difference between the return for
the investment and the return fro Treasury bills (a risk
free investment)
Historical Tradeoff Between Risk and
Return in Large Portfolios 1926-2004
Insurance Example
Each year there is about a 1% chance that a given home in the San
Francisco area will be robbed and a 1% chance it will be damaged by
an earthquake
With theft insurance, the insurance company can hold funds sufficient
to cover around 1200 claims since the number of claims will almost
always be between 875 and 1125
Common Versus Independent Risk
The earthquake affects all houses simultaneously, so the risk is
perfectly correlated across homes. We call risk that is
perfectly correlated common risk
In practice, we do not know return data for many bonds and small
stocks. It is common practice to use the S&P 500 index as the market
portfolio
E(Ri ) - rf = bi ´ éëE(Rmkt ) - rf ùû
E(Ri ) = E(Rmkt )
E(Ri ) = rf
E(Ri ) < rf
Project Cost of Capital
A project’s cost of capital is given by the rate of return required
by investors or their opportunity cost of capital.
From the CAPM the cost of capital “r” is:
r = rf + b ´ éëE(Rmkt ) - rf ùû
Project Cost of Capital
The CAPM in Practice
Measuring Beta
Beta is the expected percent change in the excess return of the
security for a 1% change in the excess return of the market
portfolio (S&P 500 Index)
Ri - rf = bi ´ éëRmkt - rf ùû + ei
Measuring Beta
Forecasting Beta
• Time Horizon: what data do we use? A short horizon leads to weak statistical
power. A long horizon includes outdated data.
• Market Proxy: The theoretical market portfolio includes all risky investments.
Often the S&P 500 index is used, other proxies include the NYSE Composite Index
(a value weighted index of all NYSE stocks), or when considering an international
investment one can use a country or international market index.
• Beta Extrapolation: Often adjustments are made to the beta estimate to reduce
estimation error.
Measuring Beta
Forecasting Beta
• The Risk-Free Interest Rate: used in the CAPM equation on the left-hand side (to
calculate the excess return on the asset) is the current YTM on U.S. Treasury with
maturity similar to our project’s horizon
• The Market Risk Premium: is estimated from the historical excess return on the
market. The difference between the average return on the market and the average
return on the risk-free asset. Market Risk Premium is around 4%-5%.