INFERENTIAL ANAYSIS AND

INTERPETATION
 THEORITICAL DISTRIBUTION,
CONVIDENCE INTERVAL, AND AREA
UNDER NORMAL CURVE
 PROBABILITY
• Definition
The chance of a given event occurring

If D is code for anemia and P(D) is the probability

of anemia among pregnant women. Suppose from
n sample of pregnant women we found x anemia,
so the probability of anemia among pregnant
women is P(D) = x/n
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

• Definition
A and B are mutually exclusive events if A
and B never occur together

Head and Tail of Coin are two mutually

events
 COMPLEMENTARY EVENT
• Definition
A and B are complementary event if the
probability A occurs [P(A)] + the probability
B occurs [P(B)] equal to 1.

Having the A disease and not having the

A disease are two complementary events ,
therefore: P(A) + P(non-A) = 1
 Conditional Probability
Definition
Probability of an Event occur, given that
another event has occurred
HIV/AIDS IDU Non-IDU Total
+ 50 10 60
- 50 90 140
Total 100 100 200
D = HIV/AIDS ; N = IDU
P(D|N) = prob of HIV/AIDS among IDU

P(D|N) = 50/100
 Joint Probability
Definition
The probability of event A and B occur
together or P(A and B)
HIV/AIDS IDU Non-IDU Total
+ 50 10 60
- 50 90 140
Total 100 100 200

D = HIV/AIDS ; N = IDU
P(D and N) = 50/200
 Additional Rule
If A and B are mutually exclusive events, the
probability of A or B occur is equal to the sum
of their probabilities
MHS Jumlah %
Bali 100 0,50
Non Bali 60 0,30
WNA 40 0,20
Total 200 100

P(Bali or WNA) = P(Bali) + P(WNA) = 0,70

 Multiplication Rule
If A and B are independent events, the probability
of A and B occur is equal to the product of the
probability of each.
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
HIV IDU Non-IDU Total
+ 50 50 100
- 50 50 100
Total 100 100 200

P(HIV and IDU) = P(HIV) x P(IDU)

=100/200 x 100/200 = 1/4
 Probability Distribution
• Continues data • Discrete Data
1. Normal distribution 1. Binomial
2. t distribution 2. Poison
3. F distribution
4. Chi Square distri.
DISTRIBUSI NORMAL DISTRIBUSI - t

DISTRIBUSI F DISTRIBUSI CHI-SQUARE

 Normal Distribution
the most important distribution in statistics
Definition:
The probability distribution function of X
1
X 
 ( X   ) 2 / 2 2
e
2

Ciri:
1. Symetrical bell shape
2. Mean=Md=Mo
3. Mean ± 1SD = 68%,
Mean ± 1,96 SD = 95%,
Mean ± 2,57 SD = 99% _
X
M±1SD
M±1,96SD

M±2,57SD
 Area under the curve of normal
distribution

Mean ± 1SD = 68%

Mean ± 1,96 SD = 95%
Mean ± 2,57 SD = 99%

_
X
M±1SD
M±1,96SD

M±2,57SD
 Sampling Distribution
Definition
Distribution of mean, mean different,
proportion or proportion different of
samples
 Charactristic of sampling
distribution of mean
• If the number of sample big enough, Mean
or mean different of samples will follow a
normal distribution (Central Limit
Theorem)
• If the data follow a normal distribution, the
mean or mean different will also follow a
normal distribution
• The variation of mean or mean different
will be measured by Standard Error of
Mean (SEM = SD/n)
 Confidence Interval (CI)
Definition
Interval Estimate of population parameter such
as mean, proportion, etc

Confidence limit
CI has two limit: Lower and Upper limit

_
X
Mean ±1,96SE

Mean±2,57SE
LL UL
 CORRELATION
Indication
Correlation is a statistical method for
analysing the association between
variable X and Y

X (UMUR) Y (TINGGI)
 Scatter Diagram

* *
* *
* *
r=1 0<r<1 * * *
r=0

r= -1 0<r<-1
 Correlation Coefficient
Symbol : r
Value : lies between -1 and +1
Magnitude: the strength and direction of
Correlation
Interpretation
r = +1 : positive perfect Correlation
r=-1 : negative perfect Correlation
r=0 : no Correlation
0< r <0.6 : mild Correlation
r ≥0. 6 : strong Correlation