Professional Documents
Culture Documents
By:
Hina Gul
MBA 2nd Semester
Dec. 1, 2009
PROBABILITY
A quantitative measure of uncertainty.
It can be expressed as fractions, or as decimals..
BASIC PROBABILITY INFORMATION
AՍB
The union of two sets A and B means the set of all elements that
belong to at least one of the sets A and B.
AՈB
The intersection of two sets A and B means that the set of all
elements that belong to both A and B.
Complementation
The set of all those elements of S which do not belong to A. Its
denoted by A Ᾱ.
BASIC PROBABILITY INFORMATION
Random Experiment: An experiment which is repeated a large number
of times under similar conditions, produces different outcomes/results
every time its repeated.
An experiment in which the outcome can't be predicted with certainty.
Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes that can result from a
random experiment. it is denoted by 'S' and its number of elements are
n(s).
Example; In throwing a dice, the number that appears at top is any one
of 1,2,3,4,5,6. So here:
S ={1,2,3,4,5,6} and n(s) = 6
P(A) = m
n
Number of favorable outcomes
P( A)
Total number of outcomes for the experiment
EXAMPLE
From a standard deck of 52 playing cards. If we
randomly draw a card from the deck, we can think of
each card as a possible outcome. Therefore, there are 52
total outcomes. N=52.
What is the probability of drawing a club?
P(A) =
There are 4 kings (one of each suit). The probability of
drawing a king is .
AXIOMATIC APPROACH
Axiom – a statement that is assumed to be true.
Based on a set of axioms.
Axiom 1)
P(A) = m/n.
Axiom 2)
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
Axiom 3)
P(AՍB) = P(A) + P(B),
if A and B are mutually exclusive events.
ADDITION THEOREM
The addition rule is a result used to determine the
probability that event A or event B occurs or both occur.
The result is often written as follows, for joint events:
P(AՈB) = 0
The addition rule therefore reduces to
B = draw a spade
Combination Rule
MULTIPLICATION RULE
If an experiment can result in n1 outcomes and another
experiment results in n2 outcomes, then if the two
experiments are combined together, the total outcome
would be n1*n2.
PERMUTATION RULE
Any ordered subset from a set of n distinct objects. The
P n!