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Management
Equity Valuation
Equity Valuation
• A financial analyst primarily conducts two types of analysis for
evaluation of equity investment decisions viz. fundamental
and technical analysis.
• Net Worth = Equity Share capital + Preference Share Capital + Reserves &
Surplus – Miscellaneous Expenditure (as per B/Sheet) – Accumulated
Losses.
• Example
Liquidation is the difference between some value of
tangible assets and liabilities. As an example, assume
liabilities for company A are $550,000. Also assume the
book value of assets found on the balance sheet is $1
million, the salvage value is $50,000 and the estimated
value of selling all assets at auction is $750,000, or 75
cents on the dollar. The liquidation value is calculated by
subtracting liabilities from the auction value, which is
$750,000 minus $550,000, or $200,000.
• Replacement Cost
• Replacement value method takes into account ‘the amount required to replace
the existing company’ as the valuation of a company. In other words, if one is
to create a similar company in the same industry; all costs required to do so
will form part of the value of the firm. This is also called as “Substantial Value”.
2. The market value of the assets is 50% higher than the accounting value
carried in the balance sheet.
The replacement cost adjusted balance sheet will now have fixed assets value
as follows:
• Tobin’s Q
– Tobin’s Q is the ratio of a firm’s price to its estimated
replacement cost
These are the oldest and simplest present value approach to valuing a
stock.
1. Dividend discount model with no growth in dividends.
2. Dividend discount model with constant dividend growth.
3. Dividend discount model with multiple dividend growth .
No Growth Model
ASSUMPTION
-The future dividend remains constant such that
D1=D2=D3=D4=……………….DN
Vo= Sum [(Dt+ Pt) /(1+k)t ]
V0 = Value of Stock
Dt = Dividend at time t
Pt = Expected Price at time t
k = Required return on the stock
=$80
If the current market price is $65, then the stock is
underpriced.
Recommendation BUY
Constant Growth Model
This is for stocks that are growing at a constant growth rate (this
rate is assumed in perpetuity)
g = constant perpetual growth rate
b = plowback or retention ratio (rr)
g = ROE x b
g = growth rate in dividends
ROE = Return on Equity for the firm
b = plowback or retention percentage rate
(1- dividend payout percentage rate)
Internal Growth Rate (ROE x (1-payout))
For example, Company X paid a dividend of $1.80 per share this year. The
company expects dividends to grow in perpetuity at 5% per year, and the
company's cost of equity capital is 7%. Current market price $120
The $1.80 divided is the dividend for this year and needs to be adjusted by
the growth rate to find D(1), the estimated dividend for next year.
Vo = Do * (1+g)
(k - g)
D(1) = D(0) x (1 + g)
= $1.80 x (1 + 5%) = $1.89.
value of stock = $1.89 / ( 7% - 5%) = $94.50.
As the current market price is $120, the stock is overpriced.
Recommendation Sell
Multi-stage dividend discount
model
Multi-stage dividend discount model is a technique used to calculate
intrinsic value of a stock by identifying different growth phases of a
stock, projecting dividends per share for each the periods in the
high growth phase and discounting them to valuation date,
finding terminal value at the start of the stable growth phase using
the Gordon growth model, discounting it back to the valuation date
and adding it to the present value of the high-growth phase
dividends
The basic concept behind the multi-stage dividend discount model
is the same as constant-growth model, i.e. it bases intrinsic value on
the present value of expected future cash flows of a stock. The
difference is that instead of assuming a constant dividend growth
rate for all periods in future, the present value calculation is broken
down into different phases
Intrinsic value = PV of high growth phase dividends + PV of stable growth
phase dividends.
To calculate the present value of dividend payments in the high growth phase,
dividend per share for each year is individually projected and then discounted.
Dividend per share in year 1 = current dividend × (1 + growth rate in year 1).
Dividend per share in Year 2 = dividend per share in year 1 * (1 + growth rate
in year 2).
It is discounted 2 years back to t=0.
D1 D2 D3 Dn
PV of high
growth + + + ... +
dividends = (1+r) (1+r)2 (1+r)3 (1+r)n
Example
Flamingo Communications (FC) is fast-growing IT startup specializing in social-
media marketing. You are a financial analyst at AH Ventures, a diversified
conglomerate, which has 10% stake in the company.
Your in-house economist projects that FC dividends are expected to grow at 25%,
20%, 15% and 10% and 5% for the next 5 years. From 6th year onwards a stable
growth rate of 5% is expected.
If FC’s current stock price is $41, its most recent dividend per share was $1.5 per
share and its cost of equity is 10%, what would you recommend to your CFO
regarding what to do with the investment?
Solution
In the first step, you need to project dividend expectation for each year in the
high-growth phase.
The following table summarizes the calculations:
Time 0 1.50
Year 1 25% 1.88 High-growth = 1.5 * (1 + 25%)
Dividend per
Year Growth rate PV at t=0 Formula
share
Year 1 25% 1.88 1.70 = 1.88 / (1 + 10%)
Sum 9.31
Year 6 onwards is the stable growth phase.
Using the Gordon growth model formula, you can arrive at the present value of
perpetual dividends from 6th year onwards at the start of the stable growth phase.
This value is called terminal value.
Recommendation BUY
Challenges of Dividend Discount Models