Energy & The Wind

Presented to CHAT & HEAT

Central Huron Against Turbines & Huron East Against Turbines

Public Meeting - REACH Centre, Clinton ON
by
Bill Palmer - Sept. 16, 2010
trileaem@bmts.com
 Control of Energy Let
Civilization Develop
• Without control of energy mankind was at the
whim of the surroundings
• As population grows and expectations of
civilization increases, the demand for energy
grows
• We are going to look at the role of wind power
in meeting those needs, and implications of
that role:
– To the generating system
– To public safety
– To public health via noise
Population Growth - in Years Before Present

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures
/human_pop/human_pop.html
Developing vs Developed Population
7000
Population in Millions

6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Year 1990 Year 2000 Year 2005
Developed Nations Developing Nations
EarthTrends (http://earthtrends.wri.org) Searchable Database
Developing vs Developed Energy Use
12000
Million Tonnes of Oil

10000
Equivalent

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
Year 1990 Year 2000 Year 2005
Developed Countries Developing Countries
EarthTrends (http://earthtrends.wri.org) Searchable Database
 What Injustice, you say?
• How can developing countries dare
increase their energy demands by (for
example) 68% (India) to 99% (China)
from 1990 to 2005?
• In the same period of time, Europe
decreased their total energy
consumption by 6%
• Is not that the way we should be going?
 Pause for a Reality Check
• Nearly 2.7 billion people are living on less than
two dollars a day.
• Most women in the developing world walk more
than 5 kilometers everyday in search of water
and firewood.
• Every year, 6 million children, mostly under the
age of 5, die from diseases that are completely
preventable.
• Worldwide, more than 114 million children do
not get even a basic education.
http://www.hope-international.com/projects-and-programs.html
And We Ask about Injustice?
 World Energy Contributions 2006
Renewable - Solar, Wave, Tide

Renewable - Geothermal

Renewable - Wind

Renewable- Biomass

Renewable - Hydraulic

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Coal

Petroleum

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

PWh
Energy Per Person - Canada & China
MWh per Person Year for Each Component

90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 Canada MWh/p-yr
China MWh/p-yr
How Energy Used - Canada & China
Percentage of Total Use by Each Component

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Canada
China
 Let’s Look at the Future
• Up to now, we have focused on actual
historical experience and known facts
• There are large energy demands, which will
continue to rise as developing nations use
more to provide necessities of life to billions
• There is a limited availability of conventional
resources, based on projected consumption
• There is evidence climate is changing, but
whether this is caused by energy use or not
may not be the most critical factor - after we
consume all available resources, civilization
will suffer - What options have we?
Consider Growth Again
Fuel %/yr
2006-
2030
Oil 0.9%

Coal 1.7%

Gas 1.6%

Nuclear 1. 5%
 Who Has Known Reserves?
Fuel Countries With Top 60% of Reserves

Petroleum Saudi Arabia 19.9%, Canada 13.3%,

Iran 10.1%, Iraq 8.6%, Kuwait 7.7%,
Venezuela 7.4%
Coal USA 28.3%, Russia 18.6%,
China 13.6%
Natural Russia 26.9%, Iran 15.9%,
Gas Qatar 14.3%, Saudi Arabia 4.1%
Nuclear Australia 22%, Kazakhstan 11%,
Canada 10%, USA 10%,
South Africa 8%
 What Known Reserves Exist?
Fuel Known Lasts x yrs Lasts y yrs
Reserve @ current @ projected
rate rate
Petroleum 1342 Billion 44 37
barrels
Coal 930 Billion 138 71
short tons
Natural Gas 6254 60 42
Trillion cu ft
Nuclear 3.3 Million 50 (no 38 (no
Tons additional recycling) to
recycling) 100’s (with
recycling)
 With
With
Years Reserve recycling,
recycling,
160 uranium
uranium
140 supplies
supplies
predicted
predictedtoto
120
last
last100’s
100’sof
of
Years Reserve

100 years
years
80

60

40

20

0
930,423 Short 6254.364 Trillion 1342.207 Billion 3.3 Million
Tons Cu ft Barrels Tonnes

Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Uranium

Fuel Type and Current Reserve

Years Reserve @Current Rate Years Reserve @ Projected Rate

That Other Resource - Money
• We need to make sure that we are
doing the best we can with limited
natural resources, but also with limited
financial resources
• We need to ask some questions about
decisions, that are made without
thinking through the evidence
• World wide, national debt is a significant
problem, and a ticking time bomb
Consider Canada - 2006 Emissions
Canada Greenhouse Gases 2006

9%
3% 16%
0%
8%

21%
26%
6%
0%
0%
6%
5%
Electricity and Heat Generation Total Fossil Industry
Manufacturing Industry Construction
Commercial & Institutional Residential
Agriculture & Forestry Transportation
Industrial Proceses Solvent & Other Product
Agriculture Waste
Canada’s 26.4% Transport Part
Transportation Contributors

4%
21%
20%

3%

4%
0%
24%
20%
3%
1%
0%
Civil Aviation 0% Light Duty Gas Cars
Light Duty Gas Trucks Heavy Duty Gas Trucks
Motorcycles Light Duty Diesel Vehicles
Light Duty Diesel Trucks Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles
Propane & Natural Gas Vehicles Railways
Navigation Other Transport
 Adding Wind to the Mix
• Ontario has about 6600 MW of coal, is headed to
11,000 MW of Natural Gas and 6000 + MW of Wind
• In 2009, Ontario Wind Turbines produced 80% of
capacity less than 3% of the time, less than 15% of
capacity 40% of the time, with average cf of 27.6%
• in summer of 2010, on 40% of days wind output was
less than 5% for sustained periods of 5 hours or more
• On some days > 5000 MW of coal & > 7000 MW gas
was on line, plus all available hydro and > 9000 MW
nuclear - wind output was < 54 MW of available 1085.
• Coal replacement will done by natural gas, not wind
• Canada has an assured gas supply of 10 years, and
Ontario decision increases provincial natural gas
demand 40%
 Wind Turbines in Ontario
• Currently 1248 MW - 724 turbines
– Melancthon - 199.5 MW - 133 turbines
– Wolfe Island -197.8 MW - 86 turbines
– Prince Twp -189 MW - 126 turbines
– Enbridge -181.5 MW - 110 turbines
– Port Alma -101.2 MW - 44 turbines
– Erie Shores - 99 MW - 66 turbines
– Ripley - 76 MW - 38 turbines
– Kingsbridge I - 39.6 MW - 22 turbines
– Others < 10 MW each - 163 MW - 99 turbines
 Ontario Wind Turbine Plan
• In Service Now - 1248 MW, 724 turbines
• Under construction now - 689.6 MW
• Samsung contract Feb 2010 - 2000 MW
• +OPA Approved Apr 2010 - 1229 + 300 MW
• +OPA Listed awaiting ECT - 5561.7 + 30 MW
• +Others known Trillium - 700 MW
• +Others (eg. North Bruce, etc) - 200 to 400 MW

Total > 12,000 MW

Ontario Winter Week
Ontario Summer Week
Ontario Fall Week
Ontario Christmas Week
 Percent of Year
0
to

10%
12%
14%
16%

0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
6 5
to %
11 10
to %
16 15
to %
21 20
t %
26 o 2
to 5%
31 30
to %
36 35
to %
41 4
to 0%
46 45
to %
51 50
to %
56 55
to %
61 60
to %
66 65
to %

Percent Output
71 70
to %
76 75
to %
81 80
to %
86 85
to %
Turbine Output - 2009

91 90
Ontario In Service Wind

to %
96 9
5
to %
10
0%
Average Hourly Demand and
Turbine Capacity Factor
 The Need for Storage
• Some generating techniques need storage of
energy to be able to use it when demanded
– Solar
– Wind
• Need to cost in the future costs of fixed price
contracts and capital writeoff
Storage System Comparisons - Wh/kg
• To store output from a 2.5 MW wind turbine for 8 hours = 20 MWh
Flywheel Storage System
• Flywheel at the
CERN Fusion
Research Facility
• Weighs 800 tons
(727,000 kg)
• Spinning at 225 rpm
stores 1 MWh
• energy density is ~ 1
Wh / kg
• Would need 20 of
these for each 2.5
MW wind turbine to
store 8 hours of
excess generation
 Premium Price Paid - Wind
• In 2009 (Dec 30, 2008 to Dec 29, 2009)
assuming $135 a MWh for wind, $309,604,069
would be paid to wind turbine operators,
$242,589,404.61 above the the hourly Ontario
Electricity Price of $67,014,664.85
• On Sept 4, 2010, a good day for wind, the
premium paid to wind above spot prices would
exceed $2,000,000 for one day based on $135.
• If we had 6000 MW of turbines, the premium
would be $1.6 Billion a year, plus the taxes lost
on depreciation of about $4 Billion a year
• This is available only when the wind is blowing,
not premium power available when needed
• None of this costs in storage needs
Need To Consider Public Risk
• Ontario has had two cases of wind turbine
blades falling to the ground in ~ 1200 turbine
years in service, for a failure rate of 1700 x 10-
6 failures per turbine year.

• For other generating plants, we are concerned

if the failure rate is 1 x 10-6 failures per
operating year.
• In the 2 years of 2008 and 2009 there have
been 35 known cases of wind turbine blades
falling in world experience, for a failure rate of
212 x 10-6 failures per turbine year
• This means setback from turbines needs to be
carefully assessed to address risk
 Blades Can Fail

Prince Wind Farm - Jan 08 Port Burwell - Apr 07

Denmark - Feb. 2008 - parts of wind turbine blades travel 500 metres from tower in
turbine accident. Ontario turbines have a blade failure rate 4 x as great as seen in
European study - possibly as taller, and more severe weather.
 Public Safety Risk - Towers Can Collapse
Oklahoma US Aug 2005 Japan Jan 2007 Oregon USA
GE
Vestas
Aug 2007
Siemens
Risk Impacts on Setbacks
Risk of Ice Throw
 The Issue of Public Health
• We hear “there is no scientific evidence that
noise at the levels created by wind turbines
could cause health problems other than
annoyance” (2003, Pedersen)
• We do not hear in 2007 Pedersen said “wind
turbine noise induced annoyance at SPLs below
those known to be annoying for other sources of
community noise … wind turbine noise could
reduce the possibilities of psychophysical
restoration and adverse effects on health and
well-being can therefore not be excluded”
• 2009 Pedersen said, “Tell them in Ontario they
are wrong” (that there was no need for more study)
Wind Profile Changes at Night
Understanding Noise from Turbines
The Effect of Weighting Sound
The Effect of A Weighting
Ontario Demand 695 TWH - by Sector

37.2% of Total 29.3% of Total

15.2%
18.3%
 Using Wind Generators
• Pickering NGS, on a site of 12 km2, supplied
4000 MWh per hour, (~ 30 TWh per year or 4%
of Ontario’s demand) within 50 km of users
• Ontario’s 625 wind generators tracked by IESO
(rated at 1085 MW), located at preferred sites,
produced 2.3 TWh in 2009. To produce 31
TWh as Pickering did, would need ~ 8400
turbines + storage and collection infrastructure
• Enbridge has 110 turbines in 168km2, so 8400
turbines would need about 13,000 km2, or ALL
of Bruce, Grey, Simcoe, and Huron Counties
• The infrastructure to collect and send the
energy to users would be a further problem
 There’s No Free Ride
• Every choice has cost and risk impacts:
– Consider impacts on environment for people near
any generating source, public safety, noise, pollution
– Consider impact of substitution choices, does
focusing generation using scarce resources like
natural gas make sense? What do we do when it
runs out? Cost impacts of increasing demand?
– Are we focusing on the biggest contributors to the
problem? If Natural gas and petrochemicals have the
biggest demands, using 41% of energy each, and
have the shortest life, why does the major Ontario
initiative focus on coal generation, when it demands
only 13%, and has perhaps twice the reserve life?
– Why is the debate on nuclear about long term “waste
disposal” without consideration of “reprocessing?”
 Pulling the Threads Together
• Our present path leads to problems, increasing
greenhouse gases, but will be worse soon as:
– Conventional fuel resources have very limited reserves -
in the order of 1 human lifetime
– Demands are increasing, largely as developing nations
use more energy, mostly producing goods for the
developed world, but also providing a better life at home
– Renewable options are possible but will be very costly
due to the infrastructure to capture low grade energy and
to store received energy for use when needed - tell it all
– Why burn fossil fuels? We need them for many uses -
lubricants and chemical feed stock - plastics & fertilizer
– Recycling nuclear fuel give an option of delaying some
cost increases for storage options
 The Last Word
• Our actions and choices should not hurt
our neighbour (all cultures share a form of
“the Golden Rule”)
• “And who is my neighbour?” the lawyer
asked Jesus - who told the story of the
Good Samaritan in Luke 10, ending, “And
who do you think was neighbour to the
one who fell among thieves?” (the one
who helped the person who was hurting)
• Jesus concluded, “Go then and do
likewise.”
Known Industrial Size Turbine Failures – Resulting in
Blades on the Ground
Jan 2008 to Dec 2009
List Compiled From Public Records

• Dec 2009, all 75 blades removed from 25 Gamesa 2

MW turbines in Kumeyaay Wind Project due to
damage. Up to 1/3 of some blades lost to ground.
Calif. USA
• Dec 2009, 1.5 MW GE wind turbine in New York
State (Fenner Wind Farm) collapses after loss of
power. Cause under investigation. USA.
• Nov 2009, 2.1 MW Suzlon wind turbine at Siif
Energies Praia Formosa development “exploded”
loosing a blade per the Journal of Energy, Brazil.
• Nov 2009, 1.5 MW turbine at Acciona – Aibar Wind
Development, nacelle, blades, and top third of prototype
concrete tower (installed in 2006) collapse, Spain.
• Nov 2009, Vestas V47 turbine failure one blade lands on
path used by hikers (Falkenberg), Sweden.
• Nov 2009, Wincon turbine – defective axle causes all
blades of 40 m high turbine to come loose, one hit a
power transformer (Esbjerg), Denmark.
• (Since 2000 there have been 27 incidents in Denmark of
turbine blades becoming loose.)
• Oct 2009, Vestas V90 turbine failure, braking fails in
winds of 30 metres/sec, Sweden.
• Sept 2009, blade failure, second in 15 months, 56 m
turbine, Sheffield U, UK.
• Jul 2009, Vestas V80 turbine looses blade after lightning
strike, broken blade travels 150 metres, Germany.
• Jun 2009, GE 1.5 MW turbine blade failure following
lightning strike, MO, USA.
• May 2009, Wind turbine blade falls off and onto
highway A6, Lelystad, the Netherlands.
• May 2009, turbine overspeeds and collapses, North
Palm Springs, CA, USA.
• April 2009, wind turbine failure, and collapse, CA, USA.
• Mar 2009, GE 1.5 MW turbine blade failure in Illinois,
USA.
• Mar 2009, GE 1.5 MW turbine collapses at Noble
Environmental site when blades spin out of control, NY
State, USA.
• Feb 2009, turbine collapses when under construction
as blades spin out of control, Waverly, Idaho, USA.
• Jan 2009, Enercon turbine looses one 20 m blade and
second damaged by unknown cause, UK.
• Dec 2008, Vestas V90 turbine blade damage - pieces
travel to home 490 m away, PEI, Canada.
• Oct 2008, 42 m long blade breaks off turbine, Illinois,
USA.
• Oct 2008, turbine blade contacts tower, buckles it,
collapses VT, USA.
• Jun 2008, blade failure, 2 months after in service, 56 m
turbine, Sheffield U, UK.
• May 2008, blade failure Vestas V47 turbine, full 23 m
long blade broke off, the Netherlands .
• May 2009, Suzlon turbine fire, blades come off in fire.
Minn, USA.
• Apr 2008, 2 turbines loose 37 m long blades in storm,
Japan.
• Mar 2008 – 10 metre section breaks off wind turbine
blade, flies 200 metres, Italy.
• Mar 2008 – Lagerway turbine collapse, the
Netherlands.
• Feb 2008 - Vestas turbine looses blade - travels 100
m, Denmark.
• Feb 2008 - (another) Vestas turbine blades contact
tower, tower collapses, blade pieces travel up to 500
m, Denmark.
• Feb 2008 - (another) Vestas turbine looses blade -
Sweden.
• Feb 2008 - blade failure Norway.
• Feb 2008 - Vestas turbine looses blade, travels 40
metres, Sweden.
• Feb 2008 – turbine collapse, Island of Texel, the
Netherlands.
• Jan 2008 – GE 1.5 MW blade failure in winter storm -
Prince Wind Farm, ON, Canada.
• Jan 2008 - Vestas turbine collapses, Cumbria, UK.
 References
• Environment Canada, National Inventory Report, 1990-2006,
Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada
– Website – http://www.ec.gc.ca/ghg

• Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Energy Outlook, The

Reference Case 2006 -
http://www.nrcan-rncan.gc.ca/com/resoress/publications/peo/peo-eng.ph
p

• United States, Energy Information Administration, International

Energy Annual 2006
– Website - http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea/overview.html

• United States, Energy Information Administration, International

Energy Outlook, 2009
– Website – http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

• Population Growth over Human History

– http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/
 References - continued
• EarthTrends Searchable Database Provided by the World
Resources Institute http://earthtrends.wri.org

• Sustainable Energy — without the hot air, David JC MacKay, UIT

Cambridge, England, 2009 http://www.withouthotair.com

• Independent Electrical System Operator of Ontario – Wind Farm

Output
– http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/marketdata/windPower.asp

• Independent Electrical System Operator of Ontario – Ontario

Electrical Demand
– http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/marketdata/marketSummary.asp