REVISION: FLOOD ROUTING

LEARNING OUTCOMES
At the end of the week, students should be
able to:
 explain the difference of hydrologic lumped model &
distributed model (CO1);
 perform hydrologic channel routing using Muskingum
method (CO2);
 determine channel parameters for used in Muskingum
method (CO2).
 perform hydrologic reservoir routing using level pool
method (CO2);
 ECW 557:
ENGINEERING HYDROLOGY

PROBABILITY & STATISTICAL

DISTRIBUTION IN HYDROLOGY
By:
MADAM IRMA NOORAZURAH MOHAMAD
T1-A13-2C
irma1095@gmail.com
Ext: 6409/ 012-219 0315
WEEK 9-10 : PROBABILITY AND STATISTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IN HYDROLOGY
LEARNING OUTCOMES
At the end of the week, students should be able to:
 apply the concept of risk and reliability (binomial distribution)
for hydrological study (CO2)
 perform frequency analysis to obtain plotting positions
(Weibull Formula) (CO2)
 perform flood frequency analysis using Gumbel distribution/
log-Pearson Type III distribution / log normal distribution (CO2)
 determine confidence limits for the design flood estimation
(CO2).
 Floods Occurrence

•Unusual high stage in a river (overflow)  cause flood

•Hydrologic design requires flood peaks data from

hydrograph of extreme flood events and stages
•i.e: design of bridges, culvert waterways & spillways
 Estimation of Peak Flow, Qpeak

• UH method (Topic 5)~(Area < 5000 km2)

• Empirical method ~pg 251
• Modeling/Simulation
• Rational method ~(Area < 50 km2)-Week 11
•Statistical method

Selection of method depends on:

•Desired objectives
•Available of data
•Importance of project
PROBABILITY: The fundamental mathematical
concept employed in understanding potential of
randomness/uncertainty.

VS

STATISTICAL: Considered as a mathematical

science pertaining to the collection, analysis,
interpretation or explanation, and presentation of
data.
 Statistical Method
Probability and statistics are mathematical tools
commonly used:
• to reduce and summarize observed data;
• to present information in precise and meaningful form;
• to determine the underlying characteristics of the
observed phenomenon;
• to make prediction concerning future behavior.
The focus is on the event itself rather than the cause or
the processes which produce them.
 Flood Frequency
a.k.a Return Period (T = 1/P)
OR Annual Recurrence Interval (ARI)
** Considering of occurrence of a particular extreme rainfall events
P( x  xT ) = the probability of occurrence of an event x
of which the magnitude is equal to or in excess of a
specified magnitude xT

e.g. Event x = 24 h rainfall

Magnitude xT = 100 cm
 P = P( x  xT ) = P( 24 h Rainfall  100 cm )
 Frequency

Say P = P( x  xT ) = P( 24 h Rainfall  100cm ) = 0.2

 T = 1 / P = 5 years
Hence xT = x5 = 100 cm

The probability that a 24 h rainfall exceeds 100 cm is 0.2.

The return period of a 24 h rainfall of 100 cm is 5 years.
WEEK 9-10 : PROBABILITY AND STATISTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IN HYDROLOGY
LEARNING OUTCOMES
At the end of the week, students should be able to:
 apply the concept of risk and reliability (binomial distribution)
for hydrological study (CO2)
 Binomial Distribution pg 39

• In probability theory and statistics, the binomial

distribution is the discrete probability distribution of the
number of successes in a sequence of n independent
yes/no experiments, each of which yields success with
probability, p.
• Risk & reliability study especially on projects influences
by natural disasters (flood) can be estimated by statistical:
binomial distribution.
• i.e: Flood with return period “Tr” will occur or not?
 Binomial Distribution
The probability of an event occurring r times in n
successive years is
n!
Pr,n = nC Pr qn-r = P r q nr
r (n  r )! r!

P = probability of an event occuring

q = 1 – P = probability of event NOT occurring
n! = n (n-1) (n-2) …. (2) (1)

e.g. The probability that a 24 h rainfall with 5 years

return period (T) occurs 2 times in 3 years is
3!
P2,3 = 3C P2 q3-2
2 = (0.2) 2 (0.8)1  0.096
1! 2!
The probability that a 24 h rainfall exceeds 100 cm is P = 0.2.
* Refer previous Ex. if T = 5 years
0.2 Y P = 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 = 0.008
Y
0.2 0.8 N P = 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.8 = 0.032
Y 0.2 Y P = 0.2 x 0.8 x 0.2 = 0.032
0.2 0.8 N
0.8 N P = 0.2 x 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.128
0.2 Y P = 0.8 x 0.2 x 0.2 = 0.032
0.8 Y
0.2 0.8 N P = 0.8 x 0.2 x 0.8 = 0.128
N 0.2 Y P = 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.2 = 0.128
0.8 N
0.8 N P = 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.512
year 1 year 2 year 3 TOTAL = 1.000
e.g. The probability that a 24 h rainfall with 5 years return
period occurs 2 times in 3 years is P2,3 = 3 x 0.032 = 0.096
 Binomial Distribution
1) Probability of an event of exceedence probability, P
occurring 2 times in n successive years:
n! 2 n2
P2,n = nC P2 qn-2
2
P
= (n  2)!2! q

2) Probability of the event not occurring at all in n successive

years: (reliability)
n!
P0,n = nC P0 qn-0 = P 0 q n 0 = qn =(1 - P)n
2 (n  0)!0!

3) Probability of the event occurring at least once in n

successive years: (risk)
n!
P1,n = nC P1 qn-1 = P1q n 1 = 1-qn=1 - (1-P)n
1 (n  1)!1!
 Risk & Reliability
* The probability of the event NOT occurring at all in
n successive years is P0,n = qn
 Reliability Re = ( 1 – P )n

* The probability of the event occurring at least once in

n successive years is 1 – P0,n
 Risk R = 1 – ( 1 – P )n

DIY task: Exercise 2.7 page 40

WEEK 9-10 : PROBABILITY AND STATISTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IN HYDROLOGY
LEARNING OUTCOMES
At the end of the week, students should be able to:
perform frequency analysis to obtain plotting positions (Weibull
Formula) (CO2)
 Probability Distribution
For small extrapolation, plotting position can be
approximated by a best straight line;
For large extrapolation, plotting position must be
approximated using theoretical probability distribution:
• Gumbel distribution
• Log-Pearson Type III distribution
• Log-normal distribution
 Flood Frequency Analysis pg253
Objective: To relate magnitude of event to the
probability of occurrence either by empirical or
analytical method.

2 10 100 500
Return period (years)

* Predict extreme flood events

 Plotting Position (pg.40)
1. The given annual series (of N number of records) is
arrange in descending order (max-min) of magnitude x.
2. Assign order number m (m magnitude);(m = N).
3. Calculate plotting position P each magnitude (refer
Table 2.4 pg.41).
4. Return period T = 1/P.
5. Plot magnitude, x vs return period, T.
6. Draw the best straight line (fitted curve) on semi-log
paper or log-log paper.
7. Use plot for interpolation (and small extrapolation).
 Annual Series
Partial duration series = a series of selected data only
e.g. Annual exceedance series = a partial duration
series so chosen such that the number of values
in the series equals the number of year
 Daily
rainfall
Base value

Time

24h
Maximum
Rainfall 96 97 99 01 1 highest data / year
98 00
04
02 03

year
24h Annual Maximum Series
Maximum
Rainfall

Any 9 highest data

year
Annual Exceedance Series
 24h
Maximum
Rainfall

year

TE = Return period for annual exceedance series ( )

T = Return period for annual maximum series ( )
1
  T 
TE  ln   TE < T
  T  1 

•Data to be analyzed must be independent.

•Difference between T and TE negligible if T>20yrs.
e.g. T=10, TE=9.5, D=5%; T=100, TE=99.5, D=0.5%;
 Empirical Equations
m best application
• Weibull equation P
N 1 N>25
m
• California equation P Most popular
N
m  0 .5
• Hazen equation P
N
m  0.3
• Chegodayev equation P
N  0.4
m  0.44
• Blom P
N  0.12
m 3/8
• Gringorten equation P
N 1/ 4

 N convergence improves
; Pg 42
Example 2.8, pg42 Exceedance probability

0.998 0.99 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.01 0.002

Approximation Extrapolation

Data point

2 10 100 500
Return period
(years)

Exceedance Probability: The probability of a storm occurring during any

one year which equals or exceeds the rainfall rate used in the design of the
storm-water drainage system.
WEEK 9-10 : PROBABILITY AND STATISTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IN HYDROLOGY
LEARNING OUTCOMES
At the end of the week, students should be able to:
perform flood frequency analysis using Gumbel distribution/
log-Pearson Type III distribution / log normal distribution (CO2)
 Probability Distribution
For small extrapolation, plotting position can be
approximated by a best straight line;
For large extrapolation, plotting position must be
approximated using theoretical probability distribution:
• Gumbel distribution
• Log-Pearson Type III distribution Most popular

• Log-normal distribution
 Probability Distribution pg.255
General equation of hydrologic frequency analysis:

xT  x  KT xT  Value of variate with return period T

x  Mean of variate
  Standard deviation of variate
KT  Frequency factor

***For Large Extrapolation

 Gumbel Distribution pg.255
• Extreme Value Distribution Type I by Gumbel (1941)

1. Given an annual series data, calculate mean x and

standard deviation  :
 
( x  x ) 2

N 1

2. For the sample size N, determine reduced mean y n and

reduced standard deviation S n using Table 7.3 and
Table 7.4.
 Gumbel Distribution
3. Select return period T and calculate the reduced
variate  T 
yT   ln ln
 T  1

yT  yn
4. Calculate frequency factor KT 
Sn
5. Hence xT  x  KT Example 7.5 & 7.6
To verify data fits Gumbel’s distribution
1. Plot xT vs T
2. Repeat (3) to (5) to plot another point of xT
3. Draw fitted curve (straight line).
Example 7.4, pg259
 Log-Pearson Type III Distribution pg. 263
***For Large Extrapolation
If Z is the transformed variate of X such that
z  log x

Then, the equation of hydrologic frequency analysis:

zT  z  K z z

zT  Value of the transformed variate with return period T

z  Mean of the transformed variate
 z Standard deviation of the transformed variate
K z  Frequency factor of the transformed variate
 Log-Pearson Type III Distribution

1. Given an annual series (this called as variate, X),

calculate the transformed variate, z.
2. Calculate the mean z and standard deviation z
of the transformed variate:
z  
( z  z ) 2

N 1
3. Determine the coefficient of skew
N  ( z  z )3
Cs  N = sample size
( N  1)( N  2) 3
z
 Log-Pearson Type III Distribution

4. For a selected return period T, determine the

frequency coefficient Kz using Table 7.6.
5. Hence zT  z  K z z
6. Calculate xT = antilog zT
To verify data fits Gumbel’s distribution
1. Plot xT vs T
2. Repeat (4) to (6) to plot a few other points
3. Draw fitted curve.
 Log-Normal Distribution

1. Given an annual series (this called as variate, X),

calculate the transformed variate, z.
2. Calculate the mean z and standard deviation z
of the transformed variate:
z  
( z  z ) 2

N 1
3. No need to calculate coefficient of skew focused
on Cs = 0.0 only.
 Log Normal Distribution

4. For a selected return period T, determine the

frequency coefficient Kz using Table 7.6.
(focused only on Cs = 0.0)
5. Hence zT  z  K z z
6. Calculate xT = antilog zT
To verify data fits Gumbel’s distribution
1. Plot xT vs T
2. Repeat (4) to (6) to plot a few other points
3. Draw fitted curve.
• Reliability of frequency analysis improves with
length of records available.
• Generally, N > 30 is required.
• Frequency analysis should not be adopted if N < 10.
• If length of records is not satisfactory, regional
frequency analysis may be adopted for hydrologically
homogenous region.
 Safety Factor & Safety Margin pg 271
“In designing water resource development project,
should implies safety factor”

Safety factor F = Qdesign/ Qanalysed

Safety margin = Qdesign – Qanalysed

Design values are selected based on economic reason

& acceptable failure.

Example: 7.11& 7.12 for Risk & Reliability, pg 272

Example: 7.13, pg 272
WEEK 9-10 : PROBABILITY AND STATISTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IN HYDROLOGY
LEARNING OUTCOMES
At the end of the week, students should be able to:
determine confidence limits for the design flood estimation
(CO2).
 Confidence Limits
Indicates the limits about the calculated value between which the
true value can be said to lie with a specific probability based on
sampling errors only.

Hydrologic events that have occurred constitute a random

sample, and are used to make inferences about the true
population (all possible events).

The inferences are inevitably uncertain, depending on the length

of record available and on the assumed probability distribution.
The reliability of an estimate can be evaluated by the confidence
limit for that frequency as tabulated below.
 Confidence Limits

For a confidence probability c, the confidence

interval of the variate xT is bounded by
c (%) f(c)
x 1,2 = xT ± f(c) Se
50 0.674
f(c) = function of confidence prob. 68 1.00

Se = probable error 80 1.282

90 1.645
b
Se  b  1  1.3K  1.1K 2 95 1.96
N 100 2.58
yT  yn
KT 
Sn
 x1

xT

x2

T
Example 7.7, pg 262