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Example: In a single die toss experiment, the sample space consists of six
elements, 1, …, 6, denoted by i, i=1,…,6. A random variable may be
defined for this experiment: let the value of the random variable be equal
to the value of the dice, i.e
x(i) = i, i=1, 2, …, 6
The random variables discussed in our example could take on only a set of
discrete numbers. Such random variables are know as discrete random
variables (i.e. variables assume countable values). Random variables of another
type, know as continuous random variables, may take on values anywhere
within a continuous ranges.
Binomial Distribution
In many Geographic studies, we often face a situation where we deal with a
random variable that only takes two values, zero-one, yes-no, presence-absence,
over a given period of time. Since there are only two possible outcomes,
knowing the probability of one knows the probability of the other.
P(1)=p
P(0)=1-p=q
If the random experiment is conducted n times, then the probability for the event
to happen x times follow binomial distribution:
n x n x n!
P( x) p q p x q n x
x x!(n x)!
5!
P(0) 0.160 0.8450 0.418
0!(5 0)!
5! The probability of profitable
P(1) 0.161 0.8451 0.398
1!(5 1)! agriculture is summation of
probabilities of no drought
5! and one drought in five years,
P(2) 0.162 0.8452 0.152
2!(5 2)! i.e. 0.418+0.398=0.816
5!
P(5) 0.165 0.8455 0.000
5!(5 5)!
Poisson Distribution
e x
P( x)
x!
e 1.21.20 e 1.21.21
P(0) 0.301 P(1) 0.361
0! 1!
e1.21.22 e1.21.23
P(2) 0.217 P(3) 0.087
2! 3!
e1.21.24
P(4) 0.026
4!
Normal Distribution
( x )2
1
f ( x) e 2 2 Where (, ) are the distribution
2 parameters
f(x)
x
What Does the Mean Tell Us?
For a random variable that follows normal distribution (, ),
f(x)
1 2 x
f(x)
1
2 > 1
2
x
The variance tell how the value is spread. The larger the variance,
the more even the value spreads over a large range. Is this good
or bad?
f(x)
x
x
f(x)
x
x
Does the variance change here? Why?
Standard Normal Distribution
Prob
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
68.3%
95.5%
99.7%
Hypothesis Testing
95.5%
Type I: H0 is true,but is rejected
Type II: H0 is false, but is not rejected 99.7%
Student t distribution
Probability Density Function:
k 1
k 1
2 2
2 x
f ( x) 1 Where k is degrees of freedom
k
k k
2
Mean: 0
Variance: 1/ λ2
Chi-Square distribution
Probability Density Function:
k
1 2
Where k is degrees of freedom, and x≥0
k x
f ( x) 2
x 2 1 e 2
k
2
Mean: k
Variance: 2k
F distribution
Probability Density function:
U1
d1 Where U1 and U2 are chi-square distribution
f ( x) with d1 and d2 degrees of freedom, respectively
U2
d2