Exchange Rate System S M Shafi Department of Business & Financial Studies University of Kashmir • The IMF was instituted soon after the 2nd World War to facilitate smooth functioning of International Trade.
• It was thought that a system of fixed
exchange rates would be necessary for the smooth functioning of international finance The Original Scheme of IMF provided: • Each member-country should declare the external value of its currency in terms of gold and US dollar. This was known as the ‘Par Value’ • The value of US dollars was fixed at US $ 35 per ounce of gold. The USA committed itself to convert dollars into gold at the above official price. Cont……… The Original Scheme of IMF provided: • Following the above, the monetary reserves of member-countries came to consist of gold and US dollars. Consequently the US Dollar got the position of the reserve asset. • Each country agreed to maintain the market value of its currency within a margin of 1% of par value. Any variation will be corrected by govt. intervention The Original Scheme of IMF provided: • Members free to devalue their currencies. But, if the devaluation exceeded 10% of the par value, approval of the IMF necessary.
• IMF might approve it or advise a lower rate.
However, it had no power to reject it.
• For chronic problems, devaluation was needed
no formal approval from IMF. • For about two decades, the system went smoothly but then it began to surface the shortcomings. • Drawbacks: • 1) International Trade Outpaced International Liquidity – countries began to face BOP problems. Increase in international liquidity depended upon availability of gold Conti….. Collapse of the System • The supply of gold did not increase because its official price was fixed at US $ 35 per ounce of gold • With inflation and increased cost of mining, countries found it uneconomical to mine gold. • Under the system dollar was equated with as it was the only currency that was convertible into gold Collapse of the System • Dollar Hoarding by every country • If only a portion of the dollars outside US were to be converted into gold, it would have collapsed the Federal Reserve Bank of USA Collapse of the System • Added to this US experienced a heavy deficits in their BOP position. The supply of dollars in the forex markets increased to a great extent that led to fall in the value of dollars.
• As a corrective measure US was advised
to devalue its currency Collapse of the System • US did not heed. To maintain dollar’s prestige and further, it thought that the number of countries would suffer as they maintain huge reserves of dollar. • Thus instead of devaluing dollars US resorted to a unilateral and unexpected step on 15th August 1971. The convertibility of dollar into gold was suspended and a surcharge of 10% on Imports was levied Collapse of the System • These measures completely destablised the exchange markets. Some major countries like Japan and West Germany took steps to rescue the dollar by purchasing it in huge quantities. This action could not however stabilize the Forex markets and therefore, some countries decided to float their currencies in exchange markets Smithsonian Agreement • The major industrialized countries came together to give a collective thought to this vexed problem. Ten countries got together:( Group of Ten) • USA, Canada, Britain, West Germany, France, Italy, Holland, Sweden and Japan met at Smithsonian Building in Washington during Dec.1971 Smithsonian Agreement • Under the Agreement: • US dollar was devalued by 7.87% and the new gold parity was fixed US $ 38 per ounce of gold instead of $ 35 earlier. But this devaluation was not enough to set things right. The other major countries decided to devalue their currencies like Japan and Germany. Wider band of fluctuation: from 1% to 2.25%. Collapse of the Smithsonian Agreement • US faced unprecedented BOP deficit for the year 1971 characterised by increased imports due to domestic boom. • Dollar continued to fall in the exchange market. A number of countries tried to save dollar by going for huge purchases. • No remedy. Hence USA devalued dollar for the 2nd time on 13th Feb 1973. The extent of devaluation was 10% Smithsonian Agreement • US removed the surcharge of 10% on its imports. • Non-convertibility of Dollar into Gold continued Collapse of the Smithsonian Agreement • The gold value was also increased from $ 38 to US $ 42.22 per ounce of gold. • Following second devaluation of US dollar many countries including Germany, UK started floating their currencies. Thus the Smithsonian Agreement came to an end Abolition of Gold System and Emergence of SDR • The turmoil in the exchange rate continued. • Major currencies continued to float • On the recommendation of 20 member countries IMF was reformed with no place for gold and new reserve currency as SDR Conti…… Abolition of Gold System and Emergence of SDR • The official price of the gold was abolished in November 1975, putting an end to Gold era. The countries were free to purchase or sell for monetary gold at the prevailing market price. • SDR emerged as the International currency. USA opposed. USA advocated floating rates, while as France was for it. Special Drawing Rights (SDR) • Created in 1969, IMF currency. • Currently 5 currencies make up the basket of currencies for SDR – 39% USD, 21% DM, 18% JY, 11% FF and 11% GBP – To replace Gold and USD as a reserve currency and to be used against speculative attacks • SDR 1 = USD 1.30[ the initial exchange rate] • SDR 1= 0.664768 [ Current ] • Interest Rate= 0.06% SDR Allocation • Each member is assigned a quota (expressed in SDRs, Special Drawing Rights) subscription of capital to the IMF • Member’s quota determines its voting power – Each member has 250 basic votes plus one additional vote for each 100,000 SDR) Current Quota Values (In mil. SDR) Argentina: 2,117; Bulgaria: 640; Egypt: 944, France:10,739; Germany: 13,008; Greece: 823; Mexico:2,586; Russia: 5,945; Spain: 3,049; Turkey: 964; UK 10,738; US:37,150 2nd Amendment to the AOA of IMF • Every member country is free to choose its own exchange rate system. • The present system can be termed as a ‘managed float’. • The major currencies like US Dollar, Yen, Pound-Sterling are floating .,i.e. their exchange rates are determined by market • Cont…. 2nd Amendment to the AOA of IMF
• Some currencies are pegged to SDR like
Burmese Kyat, Egyptian Dollar • Some currencies are pegged to a major currency. e.g., Sri Lankan Rupee is pegged to Pound-Sterling • For some currencies rates are based on a basket of currencies e.g., Indian Rupee Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates • Under Gold standard, Fixed Exchange Rate system referred to stabilizing exchange the exchange rate with the Mint Par Value. The gold system is abolished • Today, Fixed exchange system refers to maintenance of external value of the currency at a pre-determined level. Whenever, the exchange rate changes from this level, it is corrected by official Intervention Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates • For example, when IMF was instituted, every member country was asked to declare the value of its currency in dollars and gold. The market rates were allowed to fluctuate within a narrow band of margin from this level. Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates • If the exports of the country exceed imports, the demand for the local currency in the exchange market will rise. This will raise the value of the currency in the market. Where the increase in value is beyond the support point, the central bank of the country intervenes in the market. • Sells local currency and acquires foreign currency Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates • Due to higher imports, the country may have deficit on BOP. The foreign reserves of the country get depleted because local currency has to be purchased from the dealers at the cost of forex reserves. • Under fixed rates, devaluation can be avoided by way of mutual agreement between countries like India and England History of Rupee • When India Joined IMF, Rupee was valued equivalent to 0.268601 grams of gold. • Rupee was devalued in June 1966 by 37.5% and the parity of the rupee was fixed at US $ 0.13333, equivalent to a gold parity of 0.118489 grams of fine gold per rupee • Dollar-Gold Parity: • US $ 35 US $ 35 • ----------------------= ------------ • 1 Ounce of Gold 28.34 grams
• US $ 1.23 per Gram of Gold
• Gold-Dollar Parity: • 1 Ounce of Gold 28.34 grams • ----------------------= ----------------- • US $ 35 US $ 35 • • 0.8097 grams of gold per $
• Indian Rupee= 0.268601 grams of gold
• therefore exchange rate= 0.8097 grams • ----------------------= 3.01 RS. • 0.268601 grams • • 1966 when India devalued its currency by 37.5% • Rupee – Parity with Gold was fixed as • 0.118489 grams of gold
• Dollar parity with gold was = 0.8097 grams
• Thus rupee-dollar exchange= ---------------------- • 0.118489 grams • Rs.6.83 per 1 US Dollar • History of Rupee • In Dec. 1971, the Smithsonian Agreement brought some order with a wider margin of 2.25% on either side of fluctuation. • Rupee was repegged to Pound-Sterling at the central rate of Rs. 18.96 per Pound-Sterling. • With the floating of Sterling , Indian rupee also floated and as sterling depreciated so did the rupee. Thus GOI delinked the rupee from the Sterling Intervention Currency Vs Pegging
• Intervention Currency for India is Pound-
Sterling. The RBI stands to purchase or sell Pound-Sterling to any extent with a view to maintaining the stability of exchange rate of rupee. • Pegging a currency would mean having a parity between the domestic currency and the currency to which it is pegged Rupee- Rouble Exchange rate • The Arrangement for determination of rupee-roubles exchange rate presents a good example of the effect of bilateral agreements on exchange rates. • USSR occupied a special position in India’s trade. It was the 2nd largest trader after UK. It extended large scale economic credits for dev.of agri, indus, mining and oil exploration