AS Module 2

The Demographic
Transition Model
 What is the basic idea?
The demographic transition model seeks to
explain the transformation of countries from
having high birth and death rates to low
birth and death rates. In developed countries
this transition began in the eighteenth
century and continues today. Less
developed countries began the transition
later and are still in the midst of earlier
stages of the model.
 CBR and CDR
The model is based on the change in crude birth rate
(CBR) and crude death rate (CDR) over time. Each
is expressed per thousand population. The CBR is
determined by taking the number of births in one
year in a country, dividing it by the country's
population, and multiplying the number by 1000. In
1998, the CBR in the USA is 14 per 1000 (14 births
per 1000 people) while in Kenya it is 32 per 1000.
The crude death rate is similarly determined. The
number of deaths in one year are divided by the
population and that figure is multiplied by 1000.
This yields a CDR of 9 in the U.S. and 14 in Kenya.
Demographic Transition Model

Stage A / 1
Both high birth rates and
death rates fluctuate in
the first stage of the
population model giving a
small population growth
(shown by the small total
population graph).
Demographic Transition Model

Stage B / 2
Birth rates remain high,
but death rates fall
rapidly causing a high
population growth (as
shown by the total
population graph).
Demographic Transition Model

Stage C / 3
Birth rates now fall
rapidly while death rates
continue to fall. The total
population begins to peak
and the population
increase slows to a
constant.
Demographic Transition Model

Stage D / 4
Both birth rates and
death rates remain low,
fluctuating with 'baby
booms' and epidemics of
illnesses and disease.
This results in a steady
population.
Demographic Transition Model

Stage E / 5?
A stage 5 was not
originally thought of as
part of the DTM, but
some northern countries
are now reaching the
stage where total
population is declining
where birth rates have
dropped below death
rates.
Population Pyramid Model

The PPM - 'Population

Pyramid Model' shows
how dynamic (subject
to change) population
is. The model is
structured to show
'snapshots' of a
population at four
points during its
development, which
are shown as Stages 1
- 4 (A - D). A country
will progress through
the stages.
Case Study of Population Change Over Time -
DTM and Pyramids for UK (1780 - present)