A modernizao das sociedades: leituras

contemporneas (sculos XVIII-XX).

O crescimento demogrfico como
problema

Paulo Guimares
Histria Social, Econmica e Poltica
Contempornea
Sesso 3: 24-09-2014
 Objectivos
Compreender os fundamentos da teoria
malthusiana da populao e as suas
implicaes tericas
Compreender os termos do debate sobre a
evoluo das sociedades humanas na poca
das Luzes
Questionar a revoluo industrial como
resposta armadilha maltusiana
Thomas Robert Malthus (1766 1834)
Viveu num perodo em que o R.U.
conheceu um rpido crescimento
populacional, tornou-se a maior
potncia martima mundial,
expandiu o comrcio mundial, viu
o crescimento de modernas
cidades industriais e a emergncia
duma nova classe: o proletariado
industrial
Viu o aumento populacional como
problema
Influenciou directamente a
economia poltica e as cincias
sociais
Conceitos-chave: armadilha
malthusiana
 O comportamento demogrfico: a
rpida acelerao do crescimento
Inglaterra e Noruega Sucia Finlndia
Pas de Gales
1750 5,74 0,62 1,77 (?)
1760 6,10 0,65 1,87 0,45
1780 6,99 0,76 2,10 0,66
1800 8,61 0,89 2,35 0,83
1820 11,90 0,97 2,57 1,17
1840 15,73 1,24 3,12 1,40
[...]
1900 32,25 2,23 5,12 2,67
[...]

Fonte: B.R. Mitchell, International Historical Statistics: Europe, 1750-1993

Os pobres como problema social.
Inglaterra: poor laws e poor relief
Represso da mendicidade
Punio severa do pequeno furto
Casas de trabalho forado para as crianas
encontradas na rua
Assistncia
Malthus explica porque os salrios baixam
E porque deve funcionar a lei da oferta e da
procura

A MODEST PROPOSAL
For preventing the children of poor people
in Ireland, from being a burden on their
parents or country, and for making them
beneficial to the publick.
by Dr. Jonathan Swift 1729
 Thomas Robert Malthus: AN ESSAY ON THE PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION, AS IT
AFFECTS THE FUTURE IMPROVEMENT OF SOCIETY WITH REMARKS ON THE
SPECULATIONS OF MR. GODWIN, M. CONDORCET, AND OTHER WRITERS. -

LONDRES, 1798 .
The great and unlooked for discoveries that have taken place of late years in natural philosophy, the increasing
diffusion of general knowledge from the extension of the art of printing, the ardent and unshackled spirit of
inquiry that prevails throughout the lettered and even unlettered world, the new and extraordinary lights that
have been thrown on political subjects which dazzle and astonish the understanding, and particularly that

tremendous phenomenon in the political horizon, the French Revolution, which, like a blazing comet,
seems destined either to inspire with fresh life and vigour, or to scorch up and destroy the shrinking inhabitants of
the earth, have all concurred to lead many able men into the opinion that we were touching on a period big with
the most important changes, changes that would in some measure be decisive of the future fate of mankind.

It has been said that the great question is now at issue, whether man shall henceforth start forwards with accelerated
velocity towards illimitable, and hitherto unconceived improvement, or be condemned to a perpetual oscillation
between happiness and misery, and after every effort remain still at an immeasurable distance from the
wished-for goal.
 Postulados
1. food is necessary to the existence of man.
2. the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present
state.

Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is

indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man.
Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence
increases only in an arithmetical ratio. A slight acquaintance with numbers will
shew the immensity of the first power in comparison of the second.
By that law of our nature which makes food necessary to the life of man, the
effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal.
This implies a strong and constantly operating check on population from the
difficulty of subsistence. This difficulty must fall somewhere and must necessarily
be severely felt by a large portion of mankind.
Consequently, if the premises are just, the argument is conclusive against the
perfectibility of the mass of mankind.
It very rarely happens that the nominal price of labour universally falls, but we well know that it
frequently remains the same, while the nominal price of provisions has been gradually increasing.
This is, in effect, a real fall in the price of labour, and during this period the condition of the lower
orders of the community must gradually grow worse and worse. But the farmers and capitalists are
growing rich from the real cheapness of labour. Their increased capitals enable them to employ a
greater number of men. Work therefore may be plentiful, and the price of labour would
consequently rise. But the want of freedom in the market of labour, which occurs more or less in all
communities, either from parish laws, or the more general cause of the facility of combination
among the rich, and its difficulty among the poor, operates to prevent the price of labour from
rising at the natural period, and keeps it down some time longer; perhaps till a year of scarcity,
when the clamour is too loud and the necessity too apparent to be resisted.
The true cause of the advance in the price of labour is thus concealed, and the rich affect to grant it as
an act of compassion and favour to the poor, in consideration of a year of scarcity, and, when plenty
returns, indulge themselves in the most unreasonable of all complaints, that the price does not
again fall, when a little rejection would shew them that it must have risen long before but from an
unjust conspiracy of their own.
But though the rich by unfair combinations contribute frequently to prolong a season of distress among
the poor, yet no possible form of society could prevent the almost constant action of misery upon a
great part of mankind, if in a state of inequality, and upon all, if all were equal.
The theory on which the truth of this position depends appears to me so extremely clear that I feel at a
loss to conjecture what part of it can be denied.
That population cannot increase without the means of subsistence is a proposition so evident that it
needs no illustration.
That population does invariably increase where there are the means of subsistence, the history of every
people that have ever existed will abundantly prove.
And that the superior power of population cannot be checked without producing misery or vice, the
ample portion of these too bitter ingredients in the cup of human life and the continuance of the
physical causes that seem to have produced them bear too convincing a testimony.
Implicaes da teoria
O aumento populacional acabar por
absorver os ganhos de produtividade
obtidos com o desenvolvimento
tcnico e com o progresso cientfico
(armadilha maltusiana)
A larga maioria da populao estar
sempre condenada a viver na misria e
a obter baixos salrios. Estes no
resultam da desigualdade na
distribuio do rendimento mas
simplesmente da tendncia constante
para a diminuio dos rendimentos (e
das leis da oferta e da procura numa
economia capitalista).
O progresso afecta apenas uma
pequena parte da humanidade
 Equilbrio maltusiano
Efeitos positivos sobre o crescimento populacional:
qualquer causa de contribua para a diminuio da esperana mdia de
vida de uma populao:
Maus salrios / ms habitaes diminuem as resistncias s doenas
Surtos pandmicos, doenas
Guerras, fomes
Emigrao
Efeitos preventivos:
Restrio moral: celibato, adiamento de casamentos (mas era contra o
controlo da nupcialidade ou da natalidade a partir do Estado ou de
qualquer outra forma de autoridade...) > aumento da ilegitimidade
(Nota: os monarcas europeus viam na dimenso da populao uma fonte do
seu poder, i.e., o poder de um Estado media-se pela sua populao). Ver
tb. Fisiocratismo.
William Godwin - Enquiry concerning Political Justice, and its
Influence on General Virtue and Happiness (1793) Quem eram
() an investigation concerning that form of public or political
society, that system of intercourse and reciprocal action, extending
beyond the bounds of a single family, which shall be found most to
os criticados?
conduce to the general benefit. How may the peculiar and
independent operation of each individual in the social state most
effectually be preserved? How may the security each man ought to
possess, as to his life, and the employment of his faculties
according to the dictates of his own understanding, be most
certainly defended from invasion? How may the individuals of the
human species be made to contribute most substantially to the
general improvement and happiness?

Acredita na propenso dos indivduos para a perfeio moral,

rejeitando a ideia de que h princpios inatos para o mal.
As virtudes e os vcios de cada homem podem ser encontrados
na experincia social das suas vidas e se essas circunstncias que
conduzem ao vcio puderem ser extripadas da sociedade, a aco
desse homem tender para o bem.
Qualquer controlo de um homem sobre outro intolervel e um William Godwin (1756 1836)
dia vir em que um indivduo, ao fazer o bem para si prpria,
contribuir para o bem comum, porque ser guiado pelos
princpios da razo.
Defende a igualdade entre os sexos
Crtica do Estado e da Punio como soluo para os problemas
sociais
 Optimistas vs pessimistas sobre o
curso da histria
Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat,
marquis de Condorcet (1743 1794)
Essai sur lapplication de lanalyse la
probabilit des dcisions rendues la
pluralit des voix (1785)
Cria um mtodo de anlise probabilstica das decises
polticas e eleies (mtodo Condorcet)
Outlines of an historical view of the progress
of the human mind [1795]
Ver http://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/1669

"Our hopes, as to the future condition of the

human species, may be reduced to three
points: the destruction of inequality between
different nations; the progress of equality in
one and the same nation; and lastly, the real
improvement of man."
 Os que estava a acontecer na
economia e na sociedade?
A produtividade do trabalho e o produto
nacional disponvel na Inglaterra e nos pases
avanados estava a aumentar apesar do
grande aumento populacional
A revoluo industrial foi considerada como
uma escapatria para o problema da
armadilha maltusiana
E no longo prazo?
Anlise do problema em perspectiva mundial:
- A populao tem crescido continuamente desde o
sculo XVIII...

Fonte: Angus Madison, The World Economy. Vol.2. Historical Statistics, Paris, OCDE, 2006
... Mas
o ritmo de crescimento populacional tem variado
muito em diferentes sociedades e regies do mundo

Fonte: Angus Madison, The World Economy. Vol.2. Historical Statistics, Paris, OCDE, 2006
Fonte: Angus Madison, The World Economy. Vol.2. Historical Statistics, Paris, OCDE, 2006
As taxas de crescimento populacional
mais rpidas ocorrem no sculo XX
mas esto a declinar

Evoluo estimada da taxa de

crescimento annual da populao
mundial, 18002005.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusia
n_catastrophe
A alimentao disponvel tem crescido
mais do que a populao entre 1961 e
2005 (mas em % inferior do que a
produtividade das culturas).
World population from
1800 to 2100, based
on UN 2004 projections
Porque cresce a populao? Tendncias observveis: a
tendncia para a queda gradual na mortalidade

O facto fundamental a
queda na taxa de
mortalidade infantil.
O nmero de crianas
nascidas que atinge a
idade adulta cada vez
maior.

Fonte: Angus Madison, The World Economy. Vol.2. Historical Statistics, Paris, OCDE, 2006
 Tendncias observveis: a queda
gradual mais tardia na natalidade
A taxa de natalidade
mantm-se elevada por
mais tempo, no
responde imediatamente
queda da mortalidade

Resultado:
Aumento demogrfico

Fonte: Angus Madison, The World Economy. Vol.2. Historical Statistics, Paris, OCDE, 2006
 Concluses
Vises pessimistas (Malthus) coexistem no nicio do sculo XIX com vises
optimistas e crticas (Godwin, Condorcet entre outros) acerca das
tendncias da Histria e da vida social
Viso geral: os padres de comportamento da natalidade e da
mortalidade nas sociedades no so coincidentes
Apesar disso, verificam-se tendncias comuns... Porqu? (A teoria da
transio demogrfica procura dar essa resposta)
A chamada Revoluo Demogrfica essencialmente uma revoluo na
mortalidade (infantil) e esta no explicvel por factores puramente
econmicos
A industrializao permitiu escapar armadilha maltusiana (Porm, a
fome massiva marcou a histria da ndia e da China desde o sculo XVIII e
coexistiu com a industrializao no sculo XX)
(A revoluo sanitria e epidemiolgica s ocorre mais tarde...)
A partir dos finais do sculo XIX, a difuso das tecnologias da sade
pblica mais rpida do que a difuso das tecnologias que permitem
ganhos de produtividade no trabalho e bem-estar
 Em favor de Malthus...
A capacidade de poupana e de investimento num pas, necessria
ao crescimento econmico, alcanada com a soberania pode ser
muito diminuda pelo crescimento rpido da populao
Boas polticas sociais (maternidade, educao, sade) podem
absorver grande parte da poupana e gerar rpido aumento
demogrfico
Os recursos naturais disponveis no so elsticos e a tecnologia
pode no estar disponvel
A armadilha maltusiana pode gerar:
Tenses polticas internas
Conflitos por recursos escassos (internacionais)
Fomes, epidemias ou pandemias
Degradao das condies de vida da populao (aumento da presso
sobre o meio ambiente, ex. florestas, lagos, etc.) sobretudo quando
combinada com a urbanizao
 Leituras obrigatrias
Michael R. Haines, The Population of Europe:
Demographic Transition and After, EESS (no
Moodle)