Accelerating Change, the LUI, Avatars, and

Personality Capture: The Symbiotic Age

John Smart
Accelerating Change 2004
Los Angeles
(accelerating.org/slides.html)
Palo Alto © 2004 Accelerating.org
 The Extraordinary Present

“There has never been a time more pregnant

with possibilities.” — Gail Carr Feldman

Quiet happiness, careful confidence, and flow (see

Flow, by Csikszentmihalyi) are the natural state of the
human animal.

Our accelerating world adds regular surprise to the mix.

If you aren’t surprised (occasionally even astonished) at
least once a day, perhaps you aren’t looking closely
enough.

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 The Future is Now
“You will never again be as good looking as you are today.”
“Things will never again be as slow or simple as they are today.”
— You (in front of the mirror every morning).
More than ever, the Future is Now. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.
— William Gibson (paraphrased)
We have two options: Future Shock, or Future Shaping.
Never has the lever of technology been so powerful.
Never have we had so much impact, and potential for impact.

We need a pragmatic optimism, a can-do, change-aware attitude. A balance

between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on persistent
problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to avoid both
doomsaying and a paralyzing adherence to the status quo.
— David Brin (paraphrased)
Tip: Great input leads to great output. Do you have a weekly reading and
writing period? Several learning and doing communities? How global is your
thinking and action?
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 Institute for the Study of
Accelerating Change
 ISAC (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of scientists,
technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators, educators,
analysts, humanists, and systems theorists discussing and
dissecting accelerating change.

 We practice “developmental future studies,” that is, we seek to

discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, convergent
capacities, and highly probable scenarios for our common future,
and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary
choices.

 Specifically, these include accelerating intelligence, immunity,

and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems,
increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing
intimacy of the human-machine, physical-digital interface.
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 The Left and Right Hands of
“Evolutionary Development”

Replication & Variation

“Natural Selection”

Complex Environmental Interaction

Adaptive Radiation
Chaos, Contingency
Pseudo-Random Search
Strange Attractors
Evolution
Selection & Convergence
“Convergent Selection”
Emergence,Global Optima
MEST-Compression
Standard Attractors
Development

Left Hand Right Hand

Los Angeles New Computational Phase Space Opening Well-Explored Phase Space Optimization
Palo Alto © 2004 Accelerating.org
 Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins
(Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development)

The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each

taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths
predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST
compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin.
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 How Many Eyes Are
Developmentally Optimal?

Evolution tried this experiment.

Development calculated an operational optimum.

Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, certain skinks) still

have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.

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 How Many Wheels are
Developmentally Optimal?

Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device.

Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.
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 Something Curious Is Going On

Unexplained.
(Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…)

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 From the Big Bang to Complex Stars:
“The Decelerating Phase” of Universal ED

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 From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology:
The “Accelerating Phase” of Universal ED

Carl Sagan’s
“Cosmic
Calendar”
(Dragons of
Eden, 1977)

Each month
is roughly 1
billion years.
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 A U-Shaped Curve of Change?

Big Bang Singularity Developmental Singularity?

50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds 50 yrs ago: Machina silico

100,000 yrs: Matter 100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.

1B yrs: Protogalaxies 8B yrs: Earth

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 Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ):
A Universal Moore’s Law Curve

Ф
Free Energy Rate Density
Substrate (ergs/second/gram)
time
Galaxies 0.5
Stars 2 (“counterintuitive”)
Planets (Early) 75
Plants 900
Animals/Genetics 20,000(10^4)
Brains (Human) 150,000(10^5)
Culture (Human) 500,000(10^5)
Int. Comb. Engines (10^6)
Jets (10^8)
Pentium Chips (10^11)

Los Angeles
Palo Alto Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001 © 2004 Accelerating.org
 Saturation: A Biological Lesson

How S Curves Get Old

Resource limits in a niche
Material
Energetic
Spatial
Temporal
Competitive limits in a niche
Intelligence/Info-Processing
Curious Facts:
1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational
substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last
2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition
Result: No apparent limits to the acceleration of local intelligence,
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interdependence, and immunity in new substrates over time.
Palo Alto © 2004 Accelerating.org
 Understanding the Lever of ICT

"Give me a lever, a fulcrum,

and place to stand and I
will move the world."

Archimedes of Syracuse
(287-212 BC), quoted by
Pappus of Alexandria,
Synagoge, c. 340 AD
“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes,
with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the
world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)

The lever of accelerating information and communications

technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in
inner space) increasingly moves the world.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…) © 2004 Accelerating.org
 Smart’s Laws of Technology

1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.

(Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development).

2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of

technological evolutionary development.
(Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency,
P2P as a proprietary or open source development)
3. The first generation of any technology is often
dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity,
and with luck the third becomes net humanizing.
(Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).

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 Many Accelerations are Underwhelming

Some Modest Exponentials:

 Productivity per U.S. worker hr has improved 500%
over 75 years (1929-2004, 2% per yr)
 Business investment as % of U.S. GDP is flat at 11%
over 25 years.
 Nondefense R&D spending as % of First World GDP
is up 30% (1.6 to 2.1%) over 21 years (1981-2002).
 Technology spending as % of U.S. GDP is up 100%
(4% to 8%) over 35 years (1967-2002)
 Scientific publications have increased 40% over 13
years (1988-2001).

Los Angeles BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
Palo Alto © 2004 Accelerating.org
 Revisit 1929

Business Week’s First Edition:

 IBM has an ad for “electric sorting machines.”

 PG&E has an ad announcing natural gas powered
factories in San Francisco.

Could we have predicted that one of these technologies

would sustain a relentless, profound, accelerating
transformation while another would, on the surface,
appear largely unchanged?
Can we predict this now?
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 Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004

“The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain)

Materials Science (“Substrates”)
 Synthetic Materials
 Transistor (Bell Labs, 1948)
 Microprocessor
 Fiber Optics
 Lasers and Optoelectronics
 Wired and Wireless Networks
 Quantum Wells, Wires, and Dots
 Exotic Condensed Matter

Los Angeles BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
Palo Alto © 2004 Accelerating.org
 Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004

“The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain)

Systems and Software
 Television (1940’s)
 Mainframes (1950’s)
 Minicomputers (1970’s)
 Personal Computers (1980’s)
 Cellphones/Laptops/PDAs (1990’s)
 Embedded/Distributed Systems (2000’s)
 Pervasive/Ubiquitous Systems (2010’s)
 Cable TV, Satellites, Consumer, Enterprise, Technical
Software, Middleware, Web Services, Email, CMS,
Early Semantic Web, Search, KM, AI, NLP…

Los Angeles BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
Palo Alto © 2004 Accelerating.org
 Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004

“The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain)

Defense and Space (“Security-oriented human-ICT”)
 Aircraft carriers, nuclear weapons, ICBMs, cruise
missiles, lunar landers, nuclear powered
submarines... (major open problems (security))
Manufacturing (“Engineering-oriented human-ICT”)
 Lean manufacturing, supply-chain management,
process automation, big-box retailing, robotics…
(major open problems (rich-poor divide))

Los Angeles BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
Palo Alto © 2004 Accelerating.org
 Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004

“The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain)

Social and Legal (“Fairness-oriented human-ICT”)
 Civil rights, social security, fair labor standards, ADA,
EOE, tort reform, class actions, Miranda rights,
zoning, DMV code, alimony, palimony, criminal law
reform, penal reform, education reform, privacy law,
feminism, minority power, spousal rights, gay civil
unions... (“accelerating refinements” (vs. disruptive
changes), consider E.U. vs. U.S. vs China.)

Los Angeles BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
Palo Alto © 2004 Accelerating.org
 Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004

“The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain)

Agrotech/Biotech/Health Care (“Bio-oriented human-ICT”)
 Green revolution, antibiotics, pharmaceuticals,
transplants, medical imaging, prosthetics,
microsurgery, genomics, proteomics, combinatorial
chem, bioinformatics… (“accelerating regulation”)
Finance (“Capital-oriented human-ICT”)
 Venture capital (American R&D, 1946), credit cards
(Bank of America, 1958), mortgage derivs (1970’s),
mutual and hedge funds, prog. trading, microcredit…
Transportation and Energy (“Infrastructure human-ICT”)
 Jet aircraft, helicopters, radar, containerized shipping
 Nuclear power, solar energy, gas-powered turbines,
Los Angeles
Palo Alto hydrogen (“accelerating efficiencies (hidden ©change)”)
2004 Accelerating.org
 ICT: A 2030 Vision
Entertain a Radical Proposition: “Human-ICT” computational
domains are saturating. “Microcosm” ICT is not.
(Human pop. flatlines in 2050 (“First World effect”). 2nd order deriv. of
world energy demand is negative. ICT acceleration continues.)
Defense, Security, Space, Finance, Social, Legal, Agrotech, Biotech,
Health Care, Finance, Transportation, Energy and Envirotech all will
look surprisingly similar in 2030 (with major ICT extensions).
We see evolutionarily more and better of the above, but now global,
not local. Our generation’s theme:
“First World Saturating, Third World Uplifting.”
Condensed Matter Physics, the Nanoworld, and Cosmology have
continued to surprise us.
ICT (Sensors, Storage, Communication, Connectivity, Simulation,
Interface) now look, and feel, very different.
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 Physical Space:
Technological “Cephalization” of Earth

"No one can deny that

a world network of
economic and psychic
affiliations is being woven
at ever increasing speed
which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of
us. With every day that
passes it becomes a little
more impossible for us
to act or think otherwise
“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = than collectively."
Phase Transition” —Tielhard de Chardin
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 Physical Space:
A Transparent Society (“Panopticon”)

David Brin,
The Transparent Society, 1998

Hitachi’s mu-chip:
RFID for paper currency

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 Physical Space:
Is Biotech a Saturated Substrate?

21st century neuropharm and neurotech won’t

accelerate biological complexity (seems likely now).
– Neural homeostasis fights “top-down” interventions
– “Most complex structure in the known universe”

Strong resistance to disruptive biointerventions

– In-group ethics, body image, personal identity

We’ll learn a lot, not biologically “redesign humans”

– No human-scale time, ability or reason to do so.
– Expect “regression to mean” (elim. disease) instead.

Neuroscience will accelerate technological complexity

– Biologically inspired computing. “Structural mimicry.”
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 Virtual Space:
Is Inner Space the Final Frontier?

Mirror Worlds, David Gelernter, 1998.

Large scale structures in spacetime are:

• A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development

• Relatively computationally simple and tractable (transparent)
• Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science
• A “rear view mirror” on the developmental trajectory of
emergence of universal intelligence?

versus

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Non-Autonomous ISS Autonomous Human Brain
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 Interface:
Oil Refinery (A Multi-Acre Automatic Factory)

Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators,

each needing only a high school education.
Los Angeles The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.
Palo Alto © 2004 Accelerating.org
 Interface:
Understanding Process Automation

 Perhaps 80-90% of today's First World

paycheck is paid for by automation
(“tech we tend”).
 Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in
Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox,
Theory of Economic Growth)
“7/8 comes from technical progess.”
 Human contribution (10-20%) to a First
World job is Social Value of Employment
+ Creativity + Education
 Developing countries are next in line
(sooner or later).
 Continual education and grants
(“taxing the machines”) are the final job
descriptions for all human beings. Termite Mound
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 An ICT Attractor:
The Linguistic User Interface

 Google’scache (2000, % non-novel)

 Watch Windows 2004 become
Conversations 2020…
 Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech

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 Personality Capture

In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.

No other credible long term futures have been proposed.

“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming

technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
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 Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)
“I would never upload my consciousness
into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.”

Prediction: When your mother dies in

2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.”
When your best friend dies in 2080, your
digital best friend will be “80% him.”
When you die in 2099, your digital you will be
99% you. Will this feel like death, or growth?
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your consciousness between
your electronic and biological components, the
encapsulation and transcendence of the biological Greg Panos (and Mother)
will feel like only growth, not death. PersonaFoundation.org
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Palo Alto We wouldn’t have it any other way. © 2004 Accelerating.org
 Action Items

1. Sign up for free Tech Tidbits and Accelerating

Times newsletters at Accelerating.org
2. Attend Accelerating Change (AC2005): IA and AI
October 28-30 at Stanford, Palo Alto, CA

3. Send feedback to johnsmart@accelerating.org

Thank You.

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