Time Series:

An Introduction
(Session 01)

SADC Course in Statistics

Time Series Learning Objectives
By the end of the next 4 sessions, devoted to
time series, you will be able to
appreciate the broader concept of data
where time is a factor
understand basic time series concepts and
terminology
be able to decompose a time series to look
at trends and seasonal effects, and do
simple forms of forecasting
be able to concisely summarize results of
time series analysis in writing
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Learning Objectives this
session
By the end of this session, you will be able to
give examples of data collected over time
state objectives of a time series analysis
appreciate the importance of graphing data
interpret key features emerging from an
examination of a time series

report main findings from a graphical

presentation of time series data

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Basics: Definitions and Notation
A time series is a collection of observations
made sequentially through time
Such observations may be denoted by
Y1 , Y2 ,Y3 , Yt , , YT
observation at time t

since data are usually collected at discrete

points in time
The interval between observations can be
any time interval (hours within days, days,
weeks, months, years, etc).
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Some areas of applications
Time series can occur in a wide range of
fields from economics to sociology,
meteorology to financial investment, etc
Some examples of time series are:
Monthly closings of the stock exchange
index
Malaria incidence or deaths over calendar
years
Daily maximum temperatures
Hourly records of babies born at a
maternity hospital
Can you suggest other examples?
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Basics: Types of time series
Observations made continually in time give
rise to a Continuous Time Series, e.g.
Thermometer readings at a Met station
(continuously measured)
Measurement of whether air pollution reached
increasing levels of unacceptability at an industrial
site (air pollution levels are continuous)

More often, observations are taken only at

specific points in time, giving rise to a
Discrete Time Series, e.g.
annual number of road accidents (discrete)
maximum daily temperature (continuous)
whether or not there was daily rain (binary)
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Objectives of a time series
Description (often with monitoring data)
Merely to describe the patterns over time
Explanation
Can the pattern observed over time be explained
in terms of other factors or causes? Helps in
understanding the behaviour of the series
Prediction (forecasting)
Can past records help us to predict what will
happen in the future?
Improving the past system/behaviour
If factors affecting the behaviour of a variable
over time can be identified, action may be taken
to improve the system, e.g. action over
increasing levels of air pollution
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 Analysing Series with time
element
Where the time element is just incidental, it
may not be necessary to use a formal time
series analysis approach
e.g. start of the rainy season each year at a
tobacco farm

The analysis used depends on the

objective(s) of the study
It can vary from just descriptive methods to
more advanced analysis approaches

In these time series sessions, we will largely

concentrate on simple approaches.
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Approach in this session
We begin with some examples showing the
importance of graphing the data to get an
insight into the distribution over time

For other examples, refer to 2.1.1 in

CAST for SADC Higher Level

We then summarise some lessons that can

be learnt from graphing the data in time

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Jumping to conclusions from raw data
Data (interval-scale): Company profits (000 dollars)
Objective: To study changes in profit figures over consecutive
quarters

Year Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter

1 2 3 4
1 667 631 675 699
2 739 695 751 779
3 823 795 835 875
4 931 855 939 967

Impression is that the 4th quarter is always

higher than the 1st quarter
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Take a look again

Previous impression is largely because

there is a general increase over time
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Jumping to conclusions from
summaries
Objective: to emphasize the need for graphing
distributions in order to get a clearer understanding
of the data distribution

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Summary

statistics
Mean 20.81 20.81 20.81 identical!

Std Dev 0.72 0.72 0.72

Data source: Petruccelli, J; MSOR Connections Vol 7 No 2, 2007

Data (interval-scale): Breaking strengths of parcel string
tested on a piece selected every 5 minutes from one spool during
production. 100 samples from each of 3 different days
(simulated data)

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Take a look again

The distributions
are definitely
different!

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Discussion exercise
Level of data for analysis depends on
objectives
Level : time period
Botswana hours of sunshine data
Level: Local, National, International
Malaria incidence with rainfall pattern
relationship (between variables)
Malaria incidence comparisons (between
countries)

In small groups, study the information on

slides 15-20. Discuss what the graphs
indicate and report back to the whole class
after 20 minutes.
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Zambia Rainfall Data
Problem: Farmers in Southern Zambia are
moving out of the province because they
believe that climate change is affecting farm
production.
A local NGO promoting Conservation Farming
insists that the problem is due to bad
farming practice.
Study commissioned to investigate the
problem; one of the events investigated was
Start of the Rains ( defined as >20mm of
rainfall in 3 days, after 15 November)

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Start of Rains
Objective: to investigate if there has been any change
in start of the rainy season in Southern Zambia
What is
your
answer to
the
question?

Data source: Moorings Station, Monze, Southern Zambia

Data (interval-scale): Start of Rains calculated as day number
(from July 1st) of the first 3-day spell with >20 mm rain after
November 15footer
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Lessons summarised
The level to which the data needs to be
summarised before analysis depends on the
objective(s) of the study
The specific analysis depends on the objectives -
a descriptive analysis will often be sufficient
Different levels of data will be needed depending
on whether the problem is being looked at the
international level, national level or local level
Imperative however that quality data be made
accessible to ensure that conclusions arising
from the analysis are correct.

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Time Plots
This is a plot of the measurement of interest
against the time of the observation
No matter what you decide is the appropriate
way to analyse your data, the time factor
must not be ignored.
As we have seen in the examples considered
in this session, it is very important to start the
exploration of a time series with a graphical
representation of the data.
However, there are a number of points to be
kept in mind when drawing such a plot, as
discussed in the next two slides
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Choice of sampling interval

The two figures are of an ECG of a healthy woman ,

but whereas the bottom one is measured at a smaller
interval, the top one is measured at a longer interval
and misses the peculiar peak of the heartbeat.
So the choice of the sampling interval is quite
important: too frequent can be costly & too infrequent
might miss out essential characteristics
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23
Choice of aspect ratio

Notice: different aspect ratios emphasize different

characteristics of the series the top one brings
out the differences in the peaks while the lower
one highlights the way the peaks rise and fall
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To join or not to join

Same data as in slide 18 but without the

points joined up
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To join or not to join
Advantage of joining usually easier to digest

Disadvantage gives impression of continuity;

definitely a risk when missing values exist

Return now to example on slide 15 for some

practical work in order to ensure learning
objectives are achieved
(Details are outlined in Practical 01)

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With reference to slide 19, note that: The World Health
Organisation does not warrant that the information contained in
the web site is complete and correct and shall not be liable
whatsoever for any damages incurred as a result of its use.
The WHO website further add Extracts of WHO information can
be used for private study or for educational purposes without
permission. Wider use requires permission to be obtained from
WHO.

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