ES8007 Climate and Climate Change

Global Warming-
Part III

Asst. Prof. WANG

Xianfeng

Asian School of the

Environment
Nanyang Technological NEA-MSS

University

www.earthobservator
14 February 2017 y.sg
 Statistical Description of Climate
o Climate statistics
o Typical temperature, humidity, wind conditions at a place
o Often stated as an average value or a range of values. These are
merely summarized info.
http://www.travelchinaguide.com/climate/beijing.htm

More detailed frequency

E.g. wind speed
climate
All objects emit radiation as long
of
as they have a non-zero temperature on the kelvin
occurrence
information is (K) scale. x C = (273.15 + x) K
contained in the Inter-quartile
histogram of the range
occurrence Extreme
frequency of Mean values
different values. value

0 wind speed
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 Statistical Description of Climate

o A statistical distribution, in the form of a mathematical

expression, would provide such information succinctly in
terms of a few parameters.
o e.g. Gaussian distribution

2 parameters

Mean,
All objects emit radiation as long as they have a non-zero temperature on the kelvin
(K) scale. x C = (273.15 + x) K Variance,
2

The extreme values at

the two ends are
completely determined
in this case!

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 Statistical Description of Climate

A small displacement of the mean (by

itself) greatly enhances the
probability of one extreme and
greatly reduces the probability of the
other extreme.
A small increase in the variance (by temperature

itself) results in huge enhancements

in the probabilities of both extremes.
All objects emit radiation as long as they have a non-zero temperature on the kelvin
Why?
(K) scale. x C = (273.15 + x) K
Because, by definition, extremes
occur with rapidly decreasing
probabilities (10%)!
The symmetry of the probability
distribution can also be altered such
that only one extreme is adversely
affected.
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 Statistical Description of Climate
From this point of view, climate variation or change is a
change in the values of the parameters of the
distribution, leading to different frequencies of
occurrences and hence different mean value, range of
fluctuations and probability of extremes.
e.g. of climate change:
rainfall anomaly
All objects emit radiation as long as they have a non-zero temperature on the kelvin
(K) scale. x C = (273.15 + x) (1)
K increase
2

= blue to red to yellow

curves
= greater range, more
extreme

Wet becomes wetter;

Dry becomes drier.

(2) 2 increase & decrease

= blue to green curve
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