Professional Documents
Culture Documents
and Confidence
Intervals
PUBH 6000/8000
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Lecture Objectives
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Statistical Inference
Definition
Statistical inference is the act of using data in a particular
sample to make generalizations about the population from
which it came
Gerstman
2014
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Statistical Inference
Concepts
Parameters and statistics
Parameter Statistic
Constant Yes No
Mean
Standard deviation s
Proportion
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Statistical Inference
Types of populations
Target
Population we want to study
Actual (sampled)
Those that have the chance to be in the study
Study sample
Those that are in the study
Actual population
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Statistical Inference
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Statistical Inference
A. Population (individual observations)
B. Sampling distributions of 7
Statistical Inference
np
npq
Estimation
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Statistical Inference
Hypothesis testing
1. State hypothesis
5. Conclusion
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Statistical Inference
Hypothesis testing
State hypotheses
Null hypothesis
H0
Claim of no difference in the population
Alternative hypothesis
Ha
Claim of difference
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Statistical Inference
Example
Statement of the problem:
In the 1970s, 2029 year old men in the U.S. had a mean
body weight of 170 pounds
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Statistical Inference
Hypothesis testing
Significance level ()
Decided before conducting the test
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Statistical Inference
Hypothesis testing
Test statistic
x
z stat TS
SE x
SE x
n
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Statistical Inference
Hypothesis testing
Goals
To reject H0 in favor of Ha
Method
Calculate a test statistic (TS)
Compare the TS to the critical value
If the |test statistic| is equal to or greater than the critical value, reject
the null
If the |test statistic| is less than the critical value, fail to reject the null
However, using SPSS this step is eliminated
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Statistical Inference
Hypothesis testing
P-value
Could random variation alone account for the difference between H0
and observations from a random sample?
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Statistical Inference
Hypothesis testing
Decision rule
p < , reject the null hypothesis
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Statistical Inference
Hypothesis testing
Errors
Type I error
probability of a Type I error (an erroneous rejection of a true null hypothesis)
Type II error
probability of a Type II error (erroneous retention of a false null hypothesis)
Power = 1 -
Truth
H0 true H0 false
Decision
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Statistical Inference
Hypothesis testing
State hypothesis
Conclusion
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Statistical Inference
Hypothesis testing
One-sample z test
H 0 : 0
H a : 0
x 0
z stat TS
n
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Statistical Inference
Hypothesis testing
One-sample z test
Critical value for z-test
When = 0.05, CV (critical value) = 1.96
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Statistical Inference
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Statistical Inference
Find a critical value for = 0.05
1. Divide by 2, (/2)
0.05 = 0.025
Area in each tail
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Statistical Inference
Example 1
A topic of recent clinical interest is the possibility of using
drugs to reduce infarct size in patients who have had a
myocardial infarction within the past 24 hours. Suppose we
know that in untreated patients the mean infarct size is 25
with a standard deviation of 10. In 8 patients treated with the
drug the mean infarct size is 16. Is the drug effective in
changing the infarct size (is the infarct size different from 25)?
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Statistical Inference
Answer 1
State hypotheses
Is the infarct size different from 25?
H 0 : 25
H a : 25
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Statistical Inference
Answer 1
Set the significance level
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Statistical Inference
Answer 1
Calculate test
x
statistic z stat TS
n
16 25
z stat 2.54
10 8
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Statistical Inference
Answer 1
Determine p-value
TS 2.54
p 2 0.0055 0.0110 0.05
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Statistical Inference
Answer 1
Conclusion
H0: = 25; Ha: 25
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Statistical Inference
Answer 1
Summary H 0 : 25
State hypotheses
H a : 25
Significance level
x
z stat TS
Calculate test n
statistic
16 25
z stat 2.54
10 8
Example 2
The NCHS reported the mean total cholesterol level in 2002
for all adults was 203 and the standard deviation was 36.8. In
the offspring of the Framingham Heart Study (n = 3310), the
mean total cholesterol was 200.3. Is there statistical evidence
of a difference in mean cholesterol level (is the cholesterol
level different from 203)?
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Statistical Inference
Answer 2
State hypotheses
Significance level
x
Calculate test z stat TS
statistic n
P-value
Conclusio 34
n
Statistical Inference
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Statistical Inference
Confidence intervals
Estimation
Point estimation
Single estimate of the parameter
Interval estimation
Range of values that seeks to capture the parameter, confidence interval
CI x z SE x
1
2
SE x
n
Alpha level Confidence Z value
level 1 z1(/2)
.10 .90 1.645
.05 .95 1.960
.01 .99 2.575
Example 3
Compute the 95% confidence interval for the mean body
temperature given that the mean temperature for a sample of
10 is 97.2F and the population standard deviation is 0.2F.
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Statistical Inference
Answer 3
CI x z
1
2 n
0.2
CI 97.2 1.96
10
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Statistical Inference
Example 4
We wish to estimate the average number of heartbeats per
minute for a certain population. The average number of
heartbeats per minute for a sample of 49 subjects was found
to be 90. Assume that these 49 patients constitute a random
sample, and that the population is normally distributed with a
standard deviation of 10. Construct the 90, 95, and 99
percent confidence intervals.
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Statistical Inference
CI x z
Answer 4 1
2 n
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Statistical Inference
Confidence intervals
Relationship between
hypothesis testing and
confidence intervals
When the value of the parameter
identified in the null hypothesis
(0) falls outside the interval, the
results will be statistically
significant (reject H0)
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Statistical Inference
H 0 : 150
Answer 5 H a : 150
150 x 0
z stat TS
x 152.1 n
n 50
16 152.1 150
TS 0.9281
s 15.1 16 50
know so use z test
Example 6
Using the information from Example 5, calculate the 95%
confidence interval for the population mean when the sample
mean is 152.1 and the population standard deviation is 16.
The sample size is 50.
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Statistical Inference
Answer 6
150
x 152.1
n 50 16
CI 95 152.1 1.96 152.1 1.96 2.26
16 50
s 15.1
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Statistical Inference
Example 7
The scores on a physical-performance test for boys of junior
high school age have been standardized with a mean of 175
and a standard deviation of 12 for the general population. In a
large city school system, a random sample of 225 junior high
school boys is tested. The sample mean is 173.6. Test whether
the sample mean differs from the population mean.
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Statistical Inference
Answer 7
175 x 0
z stat TS
x 173.6 n
12
n 225
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Statistical Inference
Example 8
Using the information from Example 7, calculate the 95%
confidence interval for the population mean when the sample
mean is 173.6 and the population standard deviation is 12.
The sample size is 225.
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Statistical Inference
Answer 8
175
x 173.6
12
n 225
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Other References
Corty EW. Using and Interpreting Statistics A Practical Text for Health,
Behavioral, and Social Sciences. St. Louis, MO: Mosby Elsevier, 2007.
Schork MA, Remington RD. Statistics with Applications to the Biological and
Health Sciences, Third Edition. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2000.
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