CHAPTER 5

Introduction to hypothesis
testing
The most important definition you
will learn in hypothesis testing
A P value is the probability of observing data that is at
least as extreme as what we got if the null hypothesis is
true.
The most important definition you
will learn in hypothesis testing
A P value is the probability of observing data that is at
least as extreme as what we got if the null hypothesis is
true.

A Hypothesis test is based on comparing a P value to a

level of significance (). Typically = 0.05
The most important definition you will
learn in hypothesis testing
A P value is the probability of observing data that is at least as
extreme as what we got if the null hypothesis is true.

A Hypothesis test is based on comparing a P value to a level of

significance (). Typically = 0.05

If the P value < then reject the Ho

If the P value > then you fail to reject the Ho

5.1 An overview
Imagine you work at a grocery store and you are in
charge of buying cornflakes. The salesman claims that
the cornflakes he is selling are packaged at 10 oz/box.
You are not too sure about this claim and you decide to
conduct a hypothesis test
5.1 An overview
Imagine you work at a grocery store and you are in charge of
buying cornflakes. The salesman claims that the cornflakes he
is selling are packaged at 10 oz/box. You are not too sure
about this claim and you decide to conduct a hypothesis test

Ho: = 10 oz.

Ha: 10 oz.
5.1 An overview
Imagine you work at a grocery store and you are in charge of
buying cornflakes. The salesman claims that the cornflakes he
is selling are packaged at 10 oz/box. You are not too sure
about this claim and you decide to conduct a hypothesis test

Ho: = 10 oz.

Ha: 10 oz.

Lets assume that we know that = 1 oz

We sample 25 boxes and we get an average of 10.36 oz

5.1 An overview
Imagine your work at a grocery store and you are in charge of
buying cornflakes. The salesman claims that the cornflakes he
is selling are packaged at 10 oz/box. You are not too sure
about this claim and you decide to conduct a hypothesis test

Testing that the salesman is conservative:

Ho: 10 oz.

Ha: > 10 oz.

5.1 An overview
Imagine your work at a grocery store and you are in charge of
buying cornflakes. The salesman claims that the cornflakes he
is selling are packaged at 10 oz/box. You are not too sure
about this claim and you decide to conduct a hypothesis test

Testing that the salesman is a cheat:

Ho: 10 oz.

Ha: <10 oz.

5.3 Type I versus Type II errors
5.3 Type I versus Type II errors

= the probability of a type 2 error

 5.3 Type I versus Type II errors

= the probability of a type 2 error

Thats because depends on three things, only one of which you can
really know in advance: depends on the size of the difference between
means that you want to be able to detect (1 2), the variability of the
populations involved (1, 2), and the sample size (n).
 5.3 Type I versus Type II errors

= the probability of a type 2 error

Thats because depends on three things, only one of which you can
really know in advance: depends on the size of the difference between
means that you want to be able to detect (1 2), the variability of the
populations involved (1, 2), and the sample size (n).

The power of a hypothesis test is 1 .

The power is also the probability of making one type of correct decision:

P(reject H0) when H0 is really false.

 5.3 Type I versus Type II errors

There is also a tradeoff between and power. If you want a low value of to
avoid type I errors, then your power will be low. On the other hand, if you can
accept a higher probability of type I errors, and set higher, that will increase
your power.