Estimation

Chapter 6
 Estimation
Statistical inference refers to methods by
which one uses sample information to
make inferences about a population.

Two Areas of Statistical Inference

1. Estimation
Point estimation
Interval estimation
2. Hypothesis Testing
 Basic Concepts in
Estimation
An estimator is any statistic whose value
is used to estimate an unknown
parameter. A realized value of an
estimator is called an estimate.
x
For example, the sample mean , is an
estimator of the population mean .
 Basic Concepts in
Estimation
Properties of a Good Estimator

1. The estimator should be an unbiased estimator.

That is, the expected value or the mean of the
estimates obtained from samples of a given size
is equal to the parameter being estimated.

2. The estimator should be consistent. For a

consistent estimator, as sample size increases,
the value of the estimator approaches the value
of the parameter estimated.
 Basic Concepts in
Estimation
Properties of a Good Estimator

3. The estimator should be a relatively efficient

estimator. That is, of all the statistics that can be
used to estimate a parameter, the relatively
efficient estimator has the smallest variance.

Remarks: A parameter can have more than one

unbiased estimator. We would naturally choose
the best estimator (unbiased, consistent and
relatively efficient).
 Basic Concepts in
Estimation
An interval estimator of a population
parameter is a rule that tells us how to
calculate two numbers based on sample
data, forming an interval within which the
parameter is expected to lie. This pair of
numbers (a, b) is called an interval
estimate or confidence interval.
 Basic Concepts in
Estimation
Example: The running time (in minutes) of a
sample of films produced by Star-Regal Theater
are as follows: 103, 94, 110, 87, and 98.
A 95% confidence interval for the mean
running time of films produced by Star-Regal
Theater is (87.6, 109.2)
The number 0.95 in the example is called the
confidence coefficient or the degree of
confidence.
The endpoints 87.6 and 109.2 are called the
lower and upper confidence limits
 Basic Concepts in
Estimation
Remarks:
1. In general, we construct a (1-) confidence interval.
The fraction (1-) is called the confidence
coefficient, and the endpoints a and are called the
lower and upper confidence limits, respectively.

2. Interpretation of (1-) 100% confidence interval: If

we take repeated samples of size n and if for each
one of these samples we compute the (1-) 100%
confidence interval then (1-) 100% of the resulting
confidence intervals will contain the unknown value
of the parameter.
 Basic Concepts in
Estimation
Example
For a 96% CI for the
mean, if repeated
samples are drawn
and a 96% CI for
the mean is
computed for each
of these samples,
96% of these CIs
will contain the
true value of the
population mean.
 Basic Concepts in
Estimation
Remarks:
3. The confidence coefficient is not the
probability that the true value of the
parameter falls in the interval estimate since
once a sample is drawn and a confidence
interval constructed, the resulting interval
estimate either encloses the true value of the
parameter or it doesnt. Rather, the
confidence coefficient is the probability that
the interval estimator encloses the true value
of the parameter.
 Basic Concepts in
Estimation
Remarks:
4. A good confidence interval is one that is
narrow as possible and has a large confidence
coefficient, near 1. The narrower the interval,
the more exactly we have located the
parameter; whereas the larger the confidence
coefficient, the more confidence we have that
a particular interval encloses the true value of
the parameter. However, for a fixed sample
size, as the confidence coefficient increases,
the length of the interval also increases.
 Estimating the Mean
A point estimator of the population mean is the
samplexmean .

(1-) 100% Confidence interval for

a. when is known

X z / 2 , X z / 2
n n
Where z / 2
is the z-value leaving an area2 of to
the right.
 Estimating the Mean
(1-) 100% Confidence interval for

b. when is unknown and n<30

s s
X t / 2 , X t / 2
n n

where t / 2 is the t-value with v=n-1

degrees of freedom
 Estimating the Mean
(1-) 100% Confidence interval for

c. when is unknown and n30

s s
X z / 2 , X z / 2
n n
where z / 2 is the z-value leaving an area of 2 to the right.

Remarks: The above formulas hold strictly for random samples

from a normal distribution. However, they provide good
approximate (1-)100% confidence intervals when the
distribution is not normal provided the sample size is large, i.e.
n>30.
 Estimating the Mean
Example
A survey of 30 adults found that the mean
age of a persons primary vehicle is 5.6
years. Assuming the standard deviation of
the population is 0.8 year, find the best
point estimate of the population mean and
the 99% confidence interval of the
population mean.
 Estimating the Mean
Solution:
The best point estimate of the
population mean is 5.6 years.
99% CI for
=0.8, n=30,
x
=5.6

Hence, one can be 99% confident that the mean

age of all primary vehicles is between 5.2 and 6.0
years, based on 30 vehicles.
 Estimating the Mean
2. A sample of the reading scores of 35
fifth-graders has a mean of 82. The
standard deviation of the sample is 15.
a. Find the 95% confidence interval of the
mean reading scores of all fifth-graders.
b. Find the 99% confidence interval of the
mean reading scores of all fifth-graders.
c. Which interval is larger? Explain why.
 Estimating the Mean
a. Find the 95% confidence interval of
the mean reading scores of all fifth-
graders.
n = 35 X = 82 s = 15
s s
X z 2 n < < X + z 2
n
15
15
82 (1.96) < < 82 + (1.96)
35 35
82 4.97< < 82 + 4.97
77 < < 87

One can be 95% confident that the

mean reading scores of all fifth-graders
is between 77 and 87.
 Estimating the Mean
b. Find the 99% confidence interval of
the mean reading scores of all fifth-
graders.
n = 35 X = 82 s = 15
s s
X z 2 n < < X + z 2
n
15 15
82 (2.58) < m < 82 + (2.58)
35 35
82 6.54 < < 82 + 6.54
75< < 89
One can be 99% confident that the
mean reading scores of all fifth-graders
is between 75 and 89.
 Estimating the Mean
c. Which interval is larger? Explain
why.
95% confidence level = 77< < 87

99% confidence level = 75< < 89

The 99% confidence interval is larger

because the confidence level is larger.
 Estimating the Mean
3. Regular consumption of pre-sweetened
cereals contribute to tooth decay, heart
disease, and other degenerative diseases,
according to a study by Dr. M. Albreight of
the National Institute of Health and Dr. D.
Solomon, Professor of Nutrition and
Dietetics at the University of London. In a
random sample of 20 similar servings of
Alpha-Bits, the mean sugar content was
11.3 grams with a standard deviation of
2.45 grams. Assuming that the sugar
content is normally distributed, construct a
Estimating the Proportion
In a binomial experiment a point estimator
X
of the proportion
p p is
n
, where X
represents the number of successes in n
trials.

If the unknown proportion is not expected

to be too close to 0 or 1 and n is large, an
approximate
(1-)100%
p q p q confidence


interval for p p zis
/ 2given
n
p z / 2
, by
n

 Estimating the Proportion
Example
1. A survey found that out of 200
workers, 168 said they were
interrupted three or more times an
hour by phone messages, faxes, etc.
Find the 90% confidence interval of
the population proportion of workers
who are interrupted three or more
times an hour.
 Estimating the Proportion
Solution:
p = 0.84 q = 0.16

p z 2
pq
n
< p < p + z 2
pq
n

(0.84)(0.16) (0.84)(0.16)
0.84 1.65 < p < 0.84 + 1.65
200 200

0.84 0.043 < p < 0.84 + 0.043

0.797< p < 0.883

 Estimating the Proportion
2. In a random sample of 200 students
who enrolled in Math 17, 138 passed
on their first take. Construct a 95%
confidence interval for the population
proportion of students who passed
Math17 on their first take.
Sample Size Estimating the
Mean
Sample Size Estimating the
Mean

The college president asks the statistics

teacher to estimate the average age of
the students at their college. How large
a sample is necessary? The statistics
teacher would like to be 99% confident
that the estimate should be accurate
within 1 year. From a previous study, the
standard deviation of the ages is known
to be 3 years.
Sample Size Estimating the
Mean

Solution

which is rounded up to 60.

Therefore, to be 99% condent that
the estimate is within 1 year of the
true mean age, the teacher needs a
sample size of at least 60 students.
Sample Size Estimating
Proportion

of
If no approximationp is known, you
should
p use =0.5.
Sample Size Estimating
Proportion
A medical researcher wishes to determine the percentage
of females who take vitamins. He wishes to be 99%
confident that the estimate is within 2 percentage points
of the true proportion. A recent study of
180 females showed that 25%
took vitamins.
a. How large should the sample size be?
b. If no estimate of the sample proportion
is available, how large should the
sample be?
Sample Size Estimating
Proportion
a. How large should the sample size be?

p = 0.25 q = 0.75
2
z
/2

n = p q
E
2
2.58

n = 0.25 0.75
.02

n = 3120.187 or n = 3121
Sample Size Estimating
Proportion
b. If no estimate of the sample proportion is
available, how large should the sample be?
p = 0.5 q = 0.5
2
z / 2 2
n = 0.5 0.5

n = pq 2.58
E
0.02

n = 4160.25 or n = 4161
 Practice Exercises

1. A random sample of 8 squirrels were found to have an

average weight of 10.3 ounces with a sample standard
deviation of 0.20. Find the 95% confidence interval of the
true mean weight. Assume a normal population.

2. A study of peach trees showed that the average number

of peaches per tree was 1500. The standard deviation of
the population is 100. A scientist wishes to find the 80%
confidence interval for the mean number of peaches per
tree. How many trees does she need to sample to be
accurate within 20 peaches per tree?

3. In a sample of 55 mice, a biologist found that 40% were

able to run a maze in 30 seconds or less. Find the 99% limit