You are on page 1of 19

ANALYSIS OF ENERGY CRISES

&
REMEDIAL MEASURES
PROPOSED IN PAKISTAN

By

Prof. Dr. Engr. S.M. Bhutta


Faculty of Engineering and Technology
International Islamic university,
Islamabad PAKISTAN
33% daily load shedding is most
serious.
It affects all activities. Industries
suffer, daily life is detoriated!
If appropriate actions are not taken
immediately; the situation will get
worse, people fight for every watt of
electricity!
The impounding crises gravity is not
realized by the decision makers!
Politics and several lobbies work
against construction of major projects
Industrial Loss By Power Outages

Cost of the Industrial Section > US $4 Billion

Loss of Industrial Value Added > 11 percent

Total Loss of Load Shedding > US $ 7 Billion


to the Economy

Cost as % of GDP. > 2.5 percent

Loss of Exports > US $ 1.3 Billion


Installed Capacity of Pakistan of power
WAPDA Thermal - 6,441 MW
Hydel - 6,500 MW
Nuclear - 462 MW
IPPS (Thermal) - 6,154 MW
Total - 19,557 MW

Utilization of various sources of Energy

Gas - 33%
Oil - 34% Coal
- 1%
Nuclear - 2%
Hydel - 33%
Reasons of Load Shedding
Circular Debt due to Non-Payments of bills of oil and electricity
Only 11% of total hydel potential realized
Shortfall in gas supply, though local resources are available
Fuel Oil import supply issues and financial constrains
Subsidies especially cross subsidy to domestic sector
Poor governance, nepotism and corruption
Technical losses & pilferage
System and plants are old, availability low, need repair and
rehabilitation.
System faults & over loading.
Pakistan Energy
Hydro Resources
Hydro-Electric Potential:- 59,000MW
Installed Hydel Capacity:- 6,500 MW
Solar
Solar Potential:- 2.9 Million
MW
Installed:-
Experimental
Wind
Wind Potential:- 346000
Gas

Geographical potential : 150


Trillion cubic feet

Proven: 29 TCF
Production Yearly: 1.27 TCF
Consumption Yearly: 1.05 TCF

Import plans: Iran 1045 TCF, Qatar 980


TCF,
Oil

Geographical Potential: 27.5


Billion Barrels
Proven: 0.314
Billion Barrels
R/P Ratio: 13 years, Oil
import 84%.
Production Yearly: 23
Million Barrels
Coal

Geographical Potential: 185


Billion Tons
Proven: 0.314
Billion Tons
Production Yearly: 3.74
Million Tons
Consumption Yearly: 8.4
Million Tons

Barriers in the Development of


Energy
1. Technology and Information Barriers.
2. Regulatory Barriers.
3. Tariff.
4. Policy Barriers.
5. Institutional Barriers.
6. Financial Barriers.
7. Interconnection Barriers
8. Procedural Impediments.
9. Anti Lobbies
10. Risks
a. Hydrological Risks
b. Geological Risks.
c. Environment Risks.
d. Miscellaneous.
Technology and Information Barriers.
lack of knowledge about the technologies of
Energy.
Need for education of Energy Technology, not only
for the
students & engineers but also for general
public
Strategy to achieve five Es
E----- Education
E----- Energy
E----- Employment
E----- Equity
E----- Enterprise
International Islamic University, Islamabad has
taken a lead in starting the classes for post graduate
students about Energy Engineering to implement the
most important Es of education in energy & for
employment on equity basis for enterprises.
Remedial Measures

i). Increase the priority for funding of Energy projects.

ii). Encourage private sector investment and involvement


in the programmes for training and implementation.
Promote the establishment of joint-venture
manufacturing, consultancy for local production of energy
systems.

iii). Establish or designate a single but active organization to


give international focus and leadership of professionals to
the increased use of energy.

iv). Establish in universities and provinces centers of


excellence for energy, to provide training, technology
support, and resources databases appropriate to the local
needs.
v). Increase R&D and industrial linkage funds for
energy.

vi). Review and update economic decision-making


methodology to include the external impacts of the
options.

VII). Need for amendments in NEPRA Act, Rules,


Regulations based upon the following issues to promote
energy:-

Net Profit according to Article 161 of Constitution of


Pakistan for hydro power projects needs to be worked
out properly because AGN Qazi formula is defective.
Need to facilitate the micro/mini renewable
electrical generating units (solar, hydel, wind, bio-
diesel) to get generation license without any fees
and paper work.

Renewable energy to be awarded reasonable up-


front tariff.

NEPRA should have competent professionals and


future vision of renewable energy to guide the
nation.

Sincere actions required to address the reasons of


load shedding.

National food needs would be


jeopardized
28% loss of storage capacity
reservoirs due to sedimentation
Implementation of Water
Apportionment Accord,
New storages are essential. In its
absence would give rise in bitter inter-
provincial disputes,
The Annual energy generated would
be equivalent to 20 million barrels of
oil otherwise needed to produce
thermal power.
LESSONS LEARNT
Construction of Most Controversial
Dams and Hydel Projects of India &
China
India Ultimately Completed Construction of Controversial
Multi-Purpose 1450 MW Sardar Sarovar Dam, in
2007, after two decades of controversy.
The most controversial and the largest 22,500 MW,
Three Gorges Dam of China got completed in year
2009 after 77 years of controversy.!
This Dam was originally envisioned in 1932, became
most controversial, was Revised in 1980.
Three Gorge Dam as approved by the China National
Peoples in 1992: when out of total 2,633 voters,
1,767 voted in favour.
Strategy Proposed to Develop Consensus
About Hydel Power Dams in Pakistan

1. Inter Provincial Agreements for New Water Storages


2. National Comprehensive Law for Water as Accord
3. Need of Reliable Telemetry System to win confidence of all
4. National Provincial Assemblies, Senate to Play Leading Role
5. Council of Common Interest (CCI) to play due role
6. Net Profit of Hydel Plants to be reviewed as per Constitution
7. Wastage of 21 MAF of Water to Sea to be fully utilized
8. Feasibilities reports need priorities
9. Self Reliance to be achieved
10. Departments & Organizations to be Made Active
11. R&D Institution & Study Groups to be Established
12.Metrology Office and forecasts need to be more reliable
13. Every Drop of Water Must be Used Fruitfully
Hydro Electrical Power Promotion Institute (HEPPI)
Education Technology
Research
Educational & focus on machinery,
training material in mechanical & electrical R&D to be promoted,
English & local equipment and civil innovation inventories
languages to be works. Working Groups and bibliographies
produced for study at will undertake surveys will be
all levels, including and reports on issues. prepared of research
booklets and videos Hydrology & geology projects supports;
for distance learning, data to be made scientific information
and support to be available of different will be given to
given to courses and sites. public.
seminars

Hydro
Hydro Power
Power Plants,
Plants, R&D,
R&D,
Education
Education
Development,
Development, Design,
Design,
Manufacturing,
Manufacturing, Installation,
Installation,
O&M,
O&M, Economic,
Economic, latest
latest CDM &
Finance and Public Environment
Technologies
Technologies Information
Information
Economics Relations
Pollution and climate
Through media contacts, change; environment
project financing, publications and assessment; social
interaction with lending representation at aspects; surface water
agencies and risk conferences, quality; groundwater
analysis & mitigation enhancement of management; fish and
methodologies to communications and
fisheries;
attribute tangible understanding between
sedimentation;
benefits; conceptual all stakeholders involved
in development, operational aspects,
planning for project risk managements and
including decision- 19 Displacement of
financing; generation
makers, politicians,
pricing, tariff etc. peoples.

You might also like