Muslim Radicalism in Pakistan

and Afghanistan
Juan Cole
www.juancole.com

Afghanistan

Ethnic
Groups
Pushtuns in
South
Hazaras in
Center
Tajiks in
northeast,
northwest
Uzbeks in
North

Afghanistan
Pop. 24 mn.
Literacy 36 %
30% of 7,000 schools destroyed under
Taliban
GDP $5 bn.; per capita $208 (among
poorest in world)
Life expectancy: 43

Rise of Taliban
Pakistan backs seminary
students from early 90s
Taliban
Trained by Northwest
Frontier Constabulary
Then Inter-Services
Intelligence

After Taliban
Tajik Northern
Alliance dominates
government
President Karzai (a
Pushtun) is weak
Little investment by
US, intl community
Provinces fall into
hands of warlords

US, NATO
9,000 US troops still
engaged in search and
destroy
2003 August ISAF in
Kabul taken over by
NATO.

ISAF beginning to
branch out

Taliban Commanders
Former Taliban commanders
Saifur Rahman commanded
Taliban against Operation
Anaconda spring 2002
In east, the Taliban's former
deputy prime minister,
Mullah Kabir, is supreme
commander
Works with with activists of
the Hizb-i Islami. Ties to
Inter-Services Intelligence in
Pakistan

Resurgence of Taliban
2003 June 49 killed in
clashes between Taliban
fighters and government
troops in Kandahar.
Tie between terrorists, drug
running
200,000 acres under poppy
cultivation despite ban
40% of economy comes from
opium ($2 bn.)

Taliban Attacks
Force of 2500 Taliban
hiding out just over border
in Pakistan
13 aid workers killed in
Afghanistan in 2003
9 already gunned down in
second half of February
Including bombings,
assassinations of UN
personnel

Constitution & Elections

2004 January - Grand assembly - or Loya Jirga adopts new constitution. President is stronger
than Pushtun warlords and Islamists had wanted.
Islam as religion of state.
Question of whether elections can be held

Pakistan
4 Provinces and
Kashmir
Punjab
Sind
Baluchistan
NWFP
(Pushtuns)
Azad Kashmir

Pakistan Challenges

Pop. of 145 mn. Growing 2.1% per annum

Low literacy 45%
Poor school system; madrasahs substitute
Still predominantly rural, poor
Few signs of India-style globalization
Light textiles important, disrupted by recent wars
Militant Muslim groups grew up during antiSoviet war, Kashmir

Musharraf

Secular minded
Hawk on Kashmir
1999 coup
Turns on Taliban Sept. 2001

Phony referendum May 2002

Attempt to sideline major
parties Oct. 2002 backfires
Islamists do well, hang
parliament

Pakistanis Largely not Islamists

Cautions:
Most Pakistanis are not interested in political
Islam
Strong influence of Sufi mysticism,
traditionalism in countryside
Pakistan Peoples Party relatively secular
Even Muslim League more for big landlords
than for Islamism
1971-2001 Islamist parties never get more than
3% of vote in national elections

Pakistans Interest in Afghanistan

Instability
blocks
Turkmenistan
gas pipeline
Central Asian
trade

Kashmir
Jihadi groups trained
in Afghanistan
Could hit India in
Kashmir
Which Pakistan claims

Muslim Political Parties

MMA main groups:
Jama`at-i Islami
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam
[JUI] (Deobandi)
Jamiat Ulema-ePakistan [JUP]

Jama`at-i Islami

Fundamentalist
Initially anti-democratic
Cadre organization
Qazi Hussain Ahmad
Does well in elections for
first time in Oct. 2002
Demands return to 1973
constitution
Musharraf must take off
uniform
Denies existence of alQaeda, demands end to
manhunt

Jamiat Ulama-i Islam

Radical clerics
Madrasahs trained
Taliban
Leader Fazlur Rahman
Opposes US
Wants manhunt for alQaeda stopped

Radical Jihadi Groups

Militant Organizatons
The Army of the Pious
The Army of Muhammad
Soldiers of the
Companions
Anti-Shiite; close to alQaeda

Movement for the

Imposition of Shiite Law

Army of the Pious (Lashkar-i Taibah)

Rooted in Markaz-ud-Dawa-wal-Irshad
(MDI), fundamentalist organization.
Had recruited anti-Soviet fighters in 80s
1990 forms LT
1993 enters Kashmir
Fighters trained in madrasahs
Suspected in Delhi Parliament attack
Dec. 2001
Banned Jan. 2002
Leader Hafiz Md. Saeed
Regroups, MDI separates activities in
Pakistan from LT in Kashmir
LT now underground
Seeks Central Asian pan-Islam

Jaish Muhammad
The Army of Muhammad

Founded 2000
By Masood Azhar
active in Kashmir
Funded by Bin Laden
13 Dec. 2001 Delhi
parliament attack
Banned Jan. 2002
Dec. 2003 assassination
attempt on Musharraf

Army of the Companions

Sipah-i Sahabah
Emerges in Jhang area of
Panjab mid-80s
Violently anti-Shiite
Assassinations of Shiites,
Christians
Trained in Afghanistan with
Taliban
Headed by Azam Tariq until
his assassination Oct. 2003
Was elected from Jhang to
parliament

Pakistani Army and AQ Khan

Much smuggling of nuclear

secrets happened 1989-91

Under Mirza Aslam Beg, Chief

of Staff

(Beg denies being in charge of

nuclear program)

Khan is an Islamic Nationalist

who believes it is hypocritical
for US to support Israels bomb

ISI links to Islamists a worry;

3-year rotations