What is a Quadrillion?

Understanding the Energy Crisis

Reality vs Promises
(Science vs. Political Science)

Dr James Smiley

How Much Energy Does The

World Use?
Where Does it Come From?
What are our options for the Future?
Can Renewable Energy save us?

Projected World Wide Energy

Needs

What is this?
How much is it?

Lets Define New Unit of Energy

Energy=Power x Time
1 Unit =1000 Megawatts of electric power for 1 yr
A typical large power plant
ABOUT: 0.1 Quadrillion BTUs
2200 Megawatt thermal energy for one year
9 million Megawatt-hrs electricity
15 million barrels of oil or ~50 super tankers per yr
3 million tons of coal ~ 36500 car loads per yr (train/day)
90 billion cubic ft of Natural gas per yr (~1 cubic mile)
1 ton Uranium per yr (about a 15x15x15 cube)

Energy for about 300,000 People in US for a year

World Wide Energy Needs

All Energy-Not just Electrical
Today~5000
Units

Growth 2%
~100 units/yr
2 a week!

~7200
Units

World Energy Consumption by

Source
~5000
Total Units
Today

Renewables
Today! <1%
Approx Units

1900

1150

1300

300

300

50

What about The United States

Consumption?
Sources?
Future Needs?
We use about 1000 Units!

Understanding the Energy Crisis

300 units
Total Energy
domestic/Imported
30

30

~1000 units used today

230 units

Growth rate ~2%/year or

20 units

200 units
120 units
80 units

30 units ea
~10 units (<1%)
Imported oil
Canada

19%

Mexico & S.Ara. 10%/ea

Venezuela&Nig. 9%ea

Solar, Wind,
bio-mass

World Energy use by fuel type

Renewables 6% of
total (hydro, wood,
included.
Growing yes, but,
Percent shrinking?

Where is Crude Oil Consumed

(USA)
Personal Cars(About 10% of total energy) ~33%
Trucking

~20%

Planes and Ships

~10%

Chemical Products(over 4000)

~12%

Industrial Heat

~10%

Heat, Light, Electric Power

~8%

Miscellaneous

~7%

Products from Oil

Nearly everything in our lives is made from oil, made by machinery and systems
dependent on oil, and transported by oil Power.
Ammonia, Anesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs, Artificial Turf,
Antiseptics, Aspirin, Auto Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens, Bandages,
Beach Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras, Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets,
Caulking, Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit Cards, Curtains,
Deodorants, Detergents, Dice, Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses,
Electrical Wiring Insulation, Faucet Washers, Fishing Rods, Fishing Line, Fishing
Lures, Food Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue, Hair Coloring,
Hair Curlers, Hand Lotion, Hearing Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant,
Insecticides, Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs, Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose,
Perfume, Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol, Shampoo, Shaving
Cream, Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water
Pipes, Yarn,

Greenhouse Gas Emission

LIGNITE
LIGNITE
COAL
COAL
OIL
OIL
NATURAL
NATURALGAS
GAS

GHG
gCeq/kWh

SOLAR
SOLARPV
PV
HYDRO
HYDRO
BIOMASS
BIOMASS
WIND
WIND
NUCLEAR
NUCLEAR
00

50
50

100
100

150
150

200
200

250
250

Source: Sokolov, IAEA, 2005

300
300

350
350

400
400

Lets Look at Renewables!

Theyve been a goal for a long time!
They get a lot of political play; its politically correct!
They would reduce Greenhouse gases vs coal/oil
They wont run out!
Can they eliminate dependence on foreign oil?

Can they save us?

State of the Union (Who said it? When?)

I urge the energy measures that I have proposed be made the first
priority of this session of the Congress. ..They will prevent the
injustice of windfall profits for a few as a result of the sacrifices of the
millions of Americans.
This must be the year in which we organize a full-scale effort to provide
for our energy needs through the 21st century. Let this be our national
goal: the United States will not be dependent on any other country for
the energy we need
.we plan to spend $10 billion in Federal funds over the next 5 years.
That is an enormous amount. But during the same 5 years, private
enterprise will be investing as much as $200 billion-- and in 10 years,
$500 billion--to develop the new resources, the new technology, the new
capacity America will require for its energy needs in the future.
Richard Nixons State of Union Address 1974

State of Union Address (Who said it? When?)

our country finally has a national energy policy:
The windfall profits tax on crude oil has been enacted, and a massive
investment in the production and development of alternative energy
sources; Solar energy funding has been quadrupled, solar energy tax
credits enacted. Ethanol production has been dramatically increased,
an amount that could enable ethanol to meet the demand for 10 percent
of all unleaded gasoline;
..it is essential that the Nation reduce its dependence on imported fossil
fuels and complete the transition to reliance on domestic renewable
sources of energy,
first step towards widespread introduction of renewable energy
sources and established an ambitious national goal for the year XXXX of
obtaining 20 percent of this Nation's energy from solar and renewable
sources. As a result of these policies and programs investments in
renewable energy sources have grown significantly .
Jimmy Carter State of Union Address 1980

Renewable energy about 6% of Total

Distribution of
the 6%

i.e. Niagara Falls, Hoover

Dam, Bonneville Dam,
etc 58%

Solar Heat
Wood stoves, etc
Ethanol

Wind farms
(double this by 2008)
i.e. Lock 7, NYSEG
Mechanicville, etc

Government Subsidies
Federal research funding by fuel

2005 Energy Policy Tax Incentives

700

Clean cars $1.3B

600

Clean coal $2.9B

500
400

Efficiency $1.3B

300
200

Renewables $3.2B

100

Oil/Gas $2.7B

0
Nuclear

Fossil
10 year avg.

General Atomics Corp.

Energy
Efficiency
5 year avg.

Solar &
Renewables
FY02 Approps.

Fusion

Nuclear $1.6B
Elect infra $1.5B
U.S. DOE

Total: 14.5 Billion in 2005!

Why so little progress?

Energy Density is very low!
Its the ENTROPY!
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over
public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.
Richard Feynman
One elephant and 100,000 mice have about the same biomass. Which
do you want to try to harness to move a railcar? Its possible, but how
practical?

Area Required for one unit of power

Wind 3000 turbines

40-70 square miles

Solar Photovoltaic

40 square miles

Bio Mass Ethanol

6000 square miles

Bio Mass Wood

12000 square miles

Bio gas

800 million chickens!

Oil/Coal

About 1 square mile

Nuclear

0.3 square miles

Saratoga County 844 sq miles

Rhode Island 1000 sq miles

How to replace Foreign oil 300 units

(Plus 20 new units in demand per year)

Options
Conservation (a must!-part of assumed growth of only 2%)
Renewables (Solar, Wind, Ethanol, Hydro, Geothermal, Bio-mass)
Domestic Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear

Conservation:

Must be part of any plan

Some conservation in 2% growth

Doing pretty good! (Next chart) We need to do more!
Cars about 90 units. 10% increase in CAF
saves 9 units when all cars converted (~10yrs)
Reduce our standard of living? Competitive economy
requires abundant energy
World energy demand is growing! (Without us!)

Conserve yes, but cant save out of the crisis!

Energy Use and Cost

Population Growth

Flat, with
More Cars
TVs
Electronics
Central air
Computers

Standard of Living vs Energy Use

Electrical Energy Use vs Quality of Life

1.0
80% of the worlds
population is
below 0.8 on the
UNs Human
Development
Index (HDI)
0.6
Prosperity

UK

France

Germany

China

Russia

Japan
U.S.
Canada
Australia

India

Education

Pakistan

Life span

0.3

4,000
8,000
12,000
Annual Electricity Use kWh/Capita

Why growth in demand?

China, India, Brazil(CIB)

3 billion people

United States

300 million (1/10th)

China, India, Brazil

~1200 kwh/capita

USA

~12000 kwh/capita

When CIB usage goes from 1200 to 2400 kwh/capita,

we would have to go 0 to keep world demand constant!

CONCLUSION: Conservation yes! But we cant

save our way out of this!

Wind Power
Fuel is free, renewable, non-polluting, its relatively simple!
But:

Wind Power is Intermittent (20 to 40% capacity factor)

40 to 70 square miles (3000 turbines) for 1000 MW
But land may still be useable-pasture/crops/factories

Diffuse energy creates integration/synchronization issues

Often not produced where needed-transmission
Not grid friendly, need storage or Coal/Nuclear backup!
Is it environmentally acceptable? On mountain peaks?
Near population?

Do as much as possible when feasible and economical.

Wind Installations

Total
Installed US
capacity
16.8 Unitsdelivering
about 5
units
electrical!

Photo of Maple Ridge

Tug Hill NY

Maple Ridge Wind Farm

195 Turbines
320 MW installed capacity
$550 Million cost
22000 Acres/34 sq miles
1.6 MW per turbine
Lewis County, Tug Hill Plateau 1600 to 2000 feet elev
Delivers about 0.1 Unit on average

Solar Power
(World total installed about 16 units-delivers about 4 units)

Lots of it, fuel is free, conceptually simple, passive

But:

Photovoltaic very costly per megawatt, high maintenance

Solar Thermal costly-need mirrors + heat sink (in the desert?)
Doesnt work night/cloudy days, capacity factor less than 25%
Energy density extremely low- 40 square miles for 1000MW
Prime locations Southwest desert-far from users
Not Grid friendly, need storage or coal/nuclear backup
Home owners get 30% Fed tax credit

Best use-small scale passive home heating, hot water, remote areas

Solar Photovoltaic
Germany
6 MW
.006 Units

Nevada planned
6.3 MW
.0063 units

Mohave Desert
Solar Thermal

About 0.5 units max

capacity-0.1 unit
delivered. Cost $3 Billion

HYDROELECTRIC
Ideal for electric generation, very cost effective, no carbon
dioxide emission, relatively simple.
But:

Water distribution diffuse but nature concentrates for us

Not many remaining opportunities to exploit
Environmental concern? damming of wild rivers?
Useful storage option where available-i.e. pump station

Its great, use as much as possible, but will be

limited to about 5% of total needs (can we use
tides?)

Hydroelectric Plants
Hoover Dam
2 Units

Niagara Falls
2.4 Units-USA
2 Units Canada

GEOTHERMAL
Great source of zone heating and electric power where
available. (Like Iceland)
Large heat source deep in earths core, hard to get at,
hard to extract large quantities
Few accessible supplies-need both hot rocks and water

There is a 50 degree F heat sink 10 feet down! How to use it?

Do whenever feasible, but NOT readily available

Possibilities? Maybe!

Geothermal Plant

Nesjavellir Iceland
0.12 Units Plus hot water heating

Biomass
Burning wood, converting corn or soy beans into ethanol, use
vegetation to make diesel fuel, algae into diesel!
Its an attractive concept!
Its Renewable-can be replenished
Plants take Carbon Dioxide back out of the air
But:

Uses a lot of land, Competes food supplies

One acre of corn provides 40 or 50 gallons of Ethanol
May use more energy than produced?
One unit takes area greater than Rhode Island

Not a good solution!

OIL/GASOLINE
Provides 95% of Transportation, supports many Industrial
Products, Transportation infrastructure is in place
But:

High carbon dioxide emission

Cost rising rapidly
Supplies limited- peak oil? Oil shale possibility-costly
We need to import large amounts, economy vulnerable

Were vulnerable to blackmail with many dollars going to

our enemies

Use for Transportation and Industrial Production.

Drill-will need all we can get-Increase supplies!

Gap in Oil supply and need

Drilling and Crude oil Price

NATURAL GAS
Provides most of the home and commercial heating(cheapest
option), infrastructure in place, domestic supply, easily
transported. High energy content.
But:

Upward pressures on price/demand

Rapid growth in use for electrical generation; a more
expensive option
Usable for transportation, but need major infrastructure

Available supplies should be used for home and

commercial heating. Avoid excessive cost growth!

NEW ELECT CAPACITY(USA)

Capacity Brought on Line by Fuel Type
(1950-2004)

80,000
80,000

Name Plate Capacity MW

MWe

Other
Other
Petroleum
Petroleum
Hydro
Hydro
Nuclear
Nuclear
Gas Natl Gas
CoalCoal

70,000
60,000
50,000

40,000
40,000

40 units

30,000

20 units
20,000
10,000
0
1950

1974

Source: RDI PowerDat database. Last updated 9/15/03.

2001

Coal
It currently provides nearly 50% of our electric power-lowest
cost. We have domestic supply.
(Remember when it was used for heating and transportation?)
But:

High Carbon dioxide emission

Mining and transport dirty and risky
Environmental impact-strip mining, emissions

Reality! Must remain a major energy source;

probably more than current 50%. Invest in clean
coal technology

Cost Comparison of Electrical Generation

12.0

Solar(35cents)
Wind (6-9 cents)

2003 cents per kilowatt-hour

Nuclear 1.72

10.0

Coal 1.80
Gas 5.77
Oil 5.53

8.0

X?

6.0
4.0
2.0

Nuclear Energy Institute

3
20
0

1
20
0

9
19
9

7
19
9

5
19
9

3
19
9

1
19
9

9
19
8

7
19
8

5
19
8

3
19
8

19
8

0.0

New Coal Plant

Prairie States Plant Illinois-Planned

1.6 Units A newer clean coal plant

Nuclear Power
Provides 20% of our electric power; safe, clean, green, Equals
coal with lowest electricity fuel cost.
But:

No new plants for 20 years

Waste storage an issue-political?
New plants have high initial construction cost
Public acceptance

Nuclear must be a major source of future energy .

Can also be used for producing water and hydrogen. Can
breed new fuel when needed!

Typical Nuclear Power Plant

North Anna ESP Site

New Nuclear Plants

Country

# Under
Constructio
n

# Planned or
Proposed

Argentina

Brazil

Bulgaria

Canada

China

27

Czech
Republic

Egypt

Country

# Under
Construction

# Planned or
Proposed

Japan

12

N. Korea

S. Korea

Pakistan

Romania

Russia

Slovakia

So. Africa

Finland

Turkey

France

Ukraine

24

USA

Vietnam

Total

India

Indonesia
Iran
Israel

1
2
24

113

1
World Nuclear Association, world-nuclear.org

Uranium Supply

World Reserves! View of Options

Total use is 5000 Units per year
Oil-Use 2500 Units of Oil = ~40 billion Barrels/yr
Reserve is ~1300 billion Barrels =~35 to 50 years
Oil sand/shale maybe ~ 30 years more-expensive?
Coal-Use 1800 Units= 3 millions tons of coal
Reserve is ~ 900 billion tons = 200 to 300 years
Natural Gas-Use 1300 Units = 3Trillion Cubic Meters
Reserve is ~ 180 trillion Cubic Meters=60 to 80 years
Uranium- Use 400 Units

Summary
Coal must remain be a major source of our electricity.
Fix the CO2
Nuclear energy must become big player-Open Yucca, reprocess
Oil will be in Short Supply! Costs going up!
Use for transportation/industrial products
Natural gas should be used for home and commercial heating
Wind do as much as practical, develop storage
New capacity likely less than the 20 unit/yr growth? (60,000 turbines/yr)

Solar and geothermal when economical-will be small players!

Biomass is wrong approach except in special situations

Conclusion
Do renewables when cost effective. They can reduce CO2
Renewables will not be major player in reducing oil dependence
Solar costly, diffuse-best use-home heating/hot water
Wind viable, can help, but limited and not grid friendly
Bio-mass small player, doesnt make sense
Making renewables focus is not reality
Obscures the hard choices
Coal & Nuclear will be the major players-do them right!
Oil / Gas will be scarce, prices will go back up! Domestic Drilling

BACKUP SLIDES

USA Energy Source/Use (%)

Note: 1% is about 10 of our new Units

US Energy Flow

Wind Turbine Usage Factor

Wind Speed and Power Lee Ranch Colorado For Yr 2002

8760 hrs

Above 20 mph only

10% of time

10 mph

23 mph
Lee Ranch Colorado

Natural Gas Production and Price

Global Temperature

Maple Ridge Photo

Land Area Needed for 1000 MW

(1 Unit)
Low- emissions Options

Method

Requirement / Description

Land Area (sq. miles)

Photovoltaic 100 km2 @ 10% efficiency

40
Wind
3,000 Wind Turbines @ 1 MW ea.
40 - 70
Biogas
60,000,000 pigs or 800,000,000 chickens
??
6,200 km2 of sugar beets
2,400
Bioalcohol
7,400 km2 of potatoes
2,800
16,100 km2 of corn
6,200
272,000 km2 of wheat
104,000
Bio-oil
24,000 km2 of rapseed
9,000
Biomass
30,000 km2 of wood
12,000

Nuclear
<1 km2
1/3
Need to Recognize Renewables have Low Energy Density
Idaho National Laboratory
General Atomics Corporation

Peak oil

Goal/Purpose of talk
1. Educate public about our energy crisis; how big is the problem,
how world energy demand effects it, Put it terms that are
more understandable
2. Show what options are valid/which are not, based science, not
politics!
3. Put current political posturing/pandering on energy in
perspective
4. Briefly discuss pros and cons of the different options
Petroleum, coal, wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, et al
5. This is not a pro nuclear talk, but conclusion is that we should
pursue most options but coal and nuclear are only viable
solutions for foreseeable future.

Energy Reserves

1 ZJ=~10000 units
Use ~5000 units/yr

Strategic Oil Reserves

~700 Million Barrels Stored in the reserve
This equals about 45 of our Units
Use about 400 Petroleum Units/year
- About 40 to 50 days of reserve-total usage
Import about 300 Petroleum Units/year
-About 50 to 60 days of import equivalent

Peak Oil?

BTU Content

All of the following fuels are equivalent to

1,000,000 Btu's.
Electricity
kWh
(3412 Btu/kWh)

Natural gas:
1 Cubic Foot of Natural Gas = 1030 Btu's
1 CCF = 100 Cu Ft = 1 Therm = 103,000 Btu's
Propane:
1 Gal Propane = 91,600 Btu's
1 Cu Ft Propane = 2,500 Btu's
Gasoline:
1 Gal Gasoline (mid grade) = 125,000 Btu's
Ethanol:
1 Gal Ethanol = 76,000 Btu's
Fuel Oil:
1 Gal of #2 Fuel Oil = 139,000 Btu's
1 Gal of #4 Fuel Oil = 145,000 Btu's
1 Gal of #6 Fuel Oil = 150,000 Btu's

Natural Gas:
1 MCF, 10
therms or 1,000 cubic feet
Coal:
@ 12,000 Btu/pound

83.34 pounds

Propane
@ 91,000 Btu/gallon

10.917 gallons

Gasoline
@125,000 Btu/gallon

8.0 gallons

Fuel Oil #2
@ 139,000 Btu/gallon

7.194 gallons

Fuel Oil #6
@ 150,000 Btu/gallon

6.67 gallons

Wood
@ 3,500 Btu/pound
1 Gal .85 E=117,600 Btus (94%) gas

293.083

Gasoline ~ 20,000 Btu/pound

285.7 pounds

Energy Consumption

World Energy Consumption

About 5000 Total Units
1 TW approx 400 units

Approx
No. EQ
Units
2000

1600
1300

350
150

Understanding the Energy Crisis

Barrel of Crude Oil

Understanding the Energy Crisis

Historical Gas Prices

Understanding the Energy Crisis

Where Money Goes (2005)

Understanding the Energy Crisis

New York Gas Taxes

New York State

~33 cents

Local Sales Tax

~8 cents

Federal Tax

~19 cents

TOTAL

~60 cents per Gallon

Gasoline Taxes
State Taxes

cents/gal
Excise tax

Business Petro tax

16.4

State gas tax

Petro testing fee

.05

Oil spill tax

.3

Sub Total

32.75 Cents per gal

Federal Taxes
Excise tax

18.4

Superfund tax

.003

Oil spill tax

.0012

Sub Total

18.82 Cents per gal

County Sales tax

8 cents per gal- capped at 4% of $2

Total

59.57 cents per gal

Understanding the Energy Crisis

Where Does My Gas Money Go?

Add 7% for NYS tax
$0.60

$0.40

$0.35

$0.33

~$100 a barrel

$0.24

$0.24

42 Gal/Barrel

$2.10

$2.07

~$2.40 gal. of crude

$3.30

68%

$3.04

Electric Power Industry Fuel Costs

Reference: Energy Information Administration

Uranium in crust of earth

Solar Thermal Power Plant

Renewable Energy Distribution 2004

Renewable Energy 2006