CLIMATE CHANGE:

Impact Adaptation &

Mitigation

What is
Atmosphere

Atmosphere
A thin blanket of
air that surrounds
the Earth

(Global) Climate System interactive system consisting of 5 major components, forced or

influenced by various external forcings (i.e.,sun and human activity)

Interactions
Energy from
the Sun

Atmosphere

Biosphere
Land

Oceans

Ice sheets

(Global) Climate System interactive system consisting of 5 major components, forced or

influenced by various external forcings (i.e.,sun and human activity)

Interactions

Climate Change
Issues
Trends &
Scenarios

 Global

warming
refers to the
increase in the
earths
mean
temperature
due to the socalled enhanced
greenhouse
effect.

Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse Effect

CO2

Carbon dioxide

CH4
N2O

Atmosphere

Methane

Nitrous oxide

water vapor
These and other gases keep the Earths surface about 60F (33 C)
warmer than it otherwise would be. Without this natural greenhouse
or blanket effect, life as we know it would not be possible

ANTRHOPOGENIC & NATURAL

SOURCES OF GHGs

Carbon Dioxide

Nitrous oxides

Nitrous Oxide

Natural sources
Soils (biological processes)

Natural sources

Ocean

Tropical soils (wet forests)

Ocean

Carbon dioxide

Hydroflourocarbons

Methane

Natural sources
Natural sources
Wetlands
Termites

Methane

none
Hydrofluorocarbons

Ocean

NATURAL SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GASES

Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse

Gas
CO2 - Burning of Fossil Fuels(Oil,Coal) by Powerplants,
Industries and Vehicles, transportation, manufacturing

CH4 - Decomposition of Garbage and Agricultural Waste Materials,

Leaks in Coal Mining and Natural Gas Production;
Accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects

Nitrous Oxide -

Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer and Pesticides in Agriculture

Biomass Burning, Combustion Process Vehicles, Acid Production

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

The planet is now close to 0.8 degrees Celsius warmer than it was a century ago

CO2 in the Atmosphere

Projected (2100)

Current (2010)
Industrial Revolution (1733)

[Source: IPCC (2007)]

Humans are increasing heat-trapping gases

in the atmosphere = enhanced greenhouse effect

Burning of fossil fuels

Widespread deforestation

Are the greenhouse gases really

increasing?
During the pre-industrial revolution, levels of
carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere
was 280 parts per million [ppm by volume. By the
end of 2005, levels increased to 379 ppm.

Methane concentration in the atmosphere

had also increased from pre-industrial
value of 715 part per million by volume
[ppm] to 1,770 ppm in 2005.

Nitrous oxide concentration in the

atmosphere had increased from preindustrial value of 270 ppm to 319 ppm in
2005.

What is enhanced
greenhouse effect

What is enhanced greenhouse

effect?
It is the effect of the increasing
concentration of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. Atmospheric greenhouse gases
warms the earth by trapping the suns
radiation near the earths surface. Increased
greenhouse gas concentration caused by
human activity have contributed to recent
global warming.

Example of the Greenhouse Effect

The Suns energy
passes through the
cars windshield.
This energy (heat)
is trapped inside
the car and cannot
pass back through
the windshield,
causing the inside
of the car to warm
up.

What are the

observed
Global trends

IPCC Conclusions
Warming of the
climate system
Increasing in
global average
air and ocean
temperatures
Rising global
average sea level
Reductions of
snow and ice

Warmest 12 years on
record

Observed changes in climate

Global average sea

level rose at a level of
1.8mm per year over
1961-2003. The rate
was faster over 19932003, about 3.1 mm per
year.

Total 20th century sea

level rise is .17m.

effect of global
warming

What is
Climate
Change?

What is climate change?

Increase in Green
House Gases (GHG)
ENHANCED GREEN HOUSE EFFECT

Increase in Global Temperature

GLOBAL WARMING

CLIMATE CHANGE
Change in climate patterns
such as rainfall, wind patterns

Climate Change

UNFCCC

..a change of climate which is

attributed directly or indirectly to human activity
that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over a comparable period of
time

Climate

change is unequivocal

(undisputable/undeniable)

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN

FCCC)

Climate Change
Climate Change is the change in climate
over a time period that ranges from
decades to centuries. The term refers to
both natural and humaninduced changes.
The term climate variability refers to
shorter term (years to decades) fluctuations
in climate such as those caused by El
Nio/Southern Oscillation.

What are climate scenarios?

A scenario is:
a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a
possible future state of the world (Parry and Carter, 1998)
Not a forecast or a prediction, but alternative views of what
the world could look like in the future
Hence, a climate scenario is:
. a plausible future climate that has been constructed for
explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of
anthropogenic climate change. (IPCC, 2001)

1A.35

What are the

impacts of
Climate
Change?

The starting point

for WWFs analysis was

the strong scientific consensus that
any human-induced warming
greater than two degrees Celsius
above pre-industrial levels
would have a dangerous
and highly damaging impact
on both human societies
and their economies
and the global environment
as a whole.

Celsius

Impacts of Climate Change

Agriculture and food security

Added heat stress, shifting monsoons, drier soils
and water shortages as a result of higher
temperatures will affect livestock and crop
production patterns with expanded range of weeds,
insects and diseases which may reduce global food
supplies and contribute to higher food prices.

A 1 DEGREE
INCREASE
TEMPERATURE
THE TROPICS

AGRICULTURAL
YIELD
DECLINE
BY AS MUCH
AS 10%

Health & Global Warming

Extreme temperatures can directly cause the loss of life (ex: 35,000
people died during heat wave in Europe, Aug03.)
Warmer weather provides an ideal breeding environment for
mosquitoes.

Tropical Diseases?
Global Warming
increases drought which
lessens the supply of
clean drinking water.
Cholera

It increases
temperature providing
an ideal breeding
environment for
mosquitoes.
Dengue fever
Malaria
Yellow fever

General Impacts of Climate

Change
Increase

in frequency of heavy
rainfall events and typhoons

General Impacts of Climate

Change
More

frequent
occurrence of more
intense drought

General Impacts of Climate

Change

Sea level rise due to

thermal expansion of
oceans to affect low-lying
areas

General Impacts of Climate

Change
Loss

of Natural
Ecosystems

Melting of Glaciers and Polar Ice Caps

32% of the
AGRICULTUR
country's total land
PHILIPPINES
is
is
area HIGHLY
is agriculturalE
to
lands.VULNERABLE
The share of agriculture
in
total
employment
is
AGRICULTURA
an
country
CLIMATE
33%.CHANGE
L
About
RAPID
POPULATIO
N GROWTH

RISING
INCOM
E

HIGH
DEMAND
FOR FOOD

countrystat.bas.gov.ph

- Food Staples Sufficiency Program 2011-2016

What are
potential
impacts on
water resources?

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE ON WR
The Water Resources Sector is seen to be
very vulnerable to climate change in terms of
availability and quality
All regions of the world show an
overall net negative impact
of climate change on water resources and
freshwater ecosystems

Impacts to WR availability
Rainy Season- too intense but short duration rains, & more frequent in some areas

Increasing Flood Peaks

Flooding of lowland
areas

Excessive
Runoff

Silted Rivers
Severe Erosion

Impacts to WR availability
Dry Season- less rainfall, frequent occurrence of drought periods in some areas

Reduced Stream
flow

Insufficient Water for

Irrigation

Reduction in
Yield
Total Crop Loss

High Temp &

Dry Soils

Declining
Groundwater Level

Limiting Water Supply for Domestic Purposes

Impacts of Climate Change

Human
Activities

Sea Level Rise

(thermal expansion)

Inundation
of low-lying
areas

Reduction in
production area

Sea
water
intrusion

Freshwater
less available

Reduced
water
supply for
irrigation

Increasing
GHGs

Global
Warming

Temperature
Rise

Extreme
Climate
Aberrations

Frequent &
Stronger
typhoons

Too
much
Water

Flooding
Damaged
Agri- infra
Soil Erosion
Pest &
diseases

More
Intense
Droughts

Too
little
Water

High evap
rate; Drier
soils

Increased crop
water demand

Water shortage
Reduced surface
flow & GW Level
decline
Reduction in
irrigated area
Drying of
wetlands

Rainfall
variability

Changing
rainfall
pattern

Rainfall availability
less predictable

Disruption in
cropping
system
Natural
ecosystems
change

HOW IS CLIMATE
CHANGE
MANIFESTED IN
THE PHILIPPINES

The nature of hazards in the Philippines

According to any criteria, the
Philippines is an extremely
dangerous place to inhabit. One of
the most comprehensive records on
the occurrence of recent natural
hazards even advised that the
archipelago has experienced more
disasters than any other country in
the world since 1900.
-

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters Louvain, Universit

Catholique de Brussels (hereafter CRED) EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED
International Disaster Database.

In the recent World Risk Index report released in August

2011 the Philippines ranks 3rd in the list of countries
most vulnerable to climate change. The risk index used
in the report analyzed each countrys exposure to
natural hazards like storms, floods, droughts and sea
level rise among others.

What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in

the local scale?

In the Philippines, there already are trends of

increasing number of hot days and warm nights,
but decreasing number of cold days and cool
nights.
Both
maximum
and
minimum
temperatures are generally getting warmer.

Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rains

have been seen to be more frequent.

Observed Changes
ANNUAL MEAN
TEMPERATURE

Observed Temperature Anomalies in the

Philippines
Period: 1951-2010 (departures from the
1971-2000 normal values)
almost 3 times
increase in maximum
temperatures

An increase of 0.65C from 1951-2010 (60 years)

MEAN ANNUAL MINIMUM

TEMPERATURE

MEAN ANNUAL MAXIMUM

TEMPERATURE
An increase of 0.36C from 1951-2010
years)

(60

An increase of 1.0C from 1951-2010 (60

years)

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines

Period: (1951 2008)
In most
parts of the
country,
increases in
the
frequency of
hot days
and warm
nights are
Statically
Significant

Trend in the
frequency of days
with maximum
temperature above
the 1961-1990 mean
99th percentile

(Hot

Trend in the
frequency with
minimum
temperature above
the 1961-1990
mean 99th
percentile (Warm

nights)

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines

Period: (1951 2008)
In most
parts of the
country,
Significant
decreases
in the
frequency of
Cool days
and Cold
nights

Trend in the
frequency with
maximum
temperature below
the 1961-1990
mean 1st percentile

Cool Days

Trend in the
frequency with
minimum
temperature below
the 1961-1990 mean
1st percentile

Cold nights

CLIMATE
PROJECTION
FOR THE
PHILIPPINES

Projected Change in annual mean temperature

Medium-range Emission A1B Scenario

Observed mean temperature has increased by 0.64 C during the last 60 years (1951-2010). Projected increase of 1 to 2.0
C under a medium emission scenario is expected by 2020 & 2050 and 0.7 to 1.7 C increase under a high emission
scenario. The figure shows that it is only after 2050 that the temperature increase showing the climate response to high or
medium range scenarios will start to diverge. This is due to the fact that Ghg gases already in the atmosphere have long
lifetimes and will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize.

Frequency of
Extreme
Temperature
hot temperatures
(indicated by the
number of days with
maximum
temperature
exceeding 35 C) will
continue to become
more frequent.

Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature

SEASON

Key Findings

Medium-range
Emission Scenario

2020

2050

Dec-Jan-Feb
(DJF)

0.8 to
1.0

1.6 to
2.2

Mar-Apr-May
(MAM)

0.9 to
1.3

2.0 to
2.5

Jun-Jul-Aug
(JJA)

0.8 to
1.3

1.6 to
2.6

Sep-Oct-Nov
(SON)

0.8 to
1.1

1.5 to
2.2

Warm months
becoming hotter

Frequency of
Extreme Rainfall

Heavy daily
rainfall
(exceeding
300mm) events
will continue to
increase in
number in
Luzon, Visayas
& eastern
sections of the
country.

Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall(%)

Dry seasons
becoming drier.
Wet seasons
becoming wetter.

Medium-range Emission
Scenario
2020

2050

Dec-Jan-Feb
(DJF)

-0.4 to 54.3
%

-0.1 to25.1-%

Mar-Apr-May
(MAM)

-0.2 to
-33.3%

-1.4 to
-39.8%

-0.4 to
43.1%

-0.7 to
72.5%

-0.4 to
30.0%

-0.5 to
39.0%

Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA)
Sep-Oct-Nov
(SON)

Manila-Mean
Temperature

Sea Level Rise Projections

Warming of
oceans

Melting of
glaciers and ice
sheets

18 cm 59 cm

Projected Change in Temperature

Probability of occurrence

Increase in mean temperature

Current
More Hot
Less
Cold

Cold

New

Average

More
Extrem
e

Hot
[Source: Adapted from IPCC (2007)]

Mitigation or
Adaptation
measures?

 Increase

the resilience and coping

capacity of the sector with the current and
future changes (Adaptation)

Limit

the cause of climate change through

measures that could slow down the build
up of atmospheric GHGs concentrations
by reducing current and future emissions
and by increasing GHG sinks (Mitigation)

Managing Climate Risks

Mitigation - human intervention to reduce the source and enhance the sinks

Mitigation

Temperature
increase
<20C

Mitigation
Adaptation

Behavior
and
practice

Adaptation - to adjust our behavior and practices and to reduce vulnerability

How can individuals help to mitigate

the adverse impact of global warming

Be aware of global warming/climate change issues and

help others know about them.
Recycle / reuse / reduce
Recyling cans and bottles help conserve our resources as
this will lead to less energy and less elements used in
manufacturing them, while recycling paper will lead to
less trees being cut down.
Save energy by saving electricity through the use of
efficient lighting and appliances, biking/ walking not very
far distances and carpooling.
Advocate the use of renewable energy such as those
from hydrodams, wind, solar radiation and biofuels.
Plant trees and encourage others to plant, too.
Conserve water and other natural resources.
Be environment friendly.

Thank you

We must act now,

because what we do
today determines both
the climate of tomorrow
and the choices that
shape our future.
World Development Report, 2010,
Development and Climate Change

tracking the sky . . . helping the

country

Some ways to prevent Global

Warming
Buy a bike. With gas prices so high, it
will pay for itself. Ride it to work,
take a joy ride. Everyone benefits
when you ride a bike. You help
conserve our limited oil resources,
you are not polluting, and you are
exercising.

For longer trips, take public

transportation
or
carpool.
These
options may take a little longer, but
you can read, listen to headphones,
work on computer or craft projects, or
talk to people instead of having to
stare straight ahead for the length of
your commute. There are many carpool
and rideshare websites on the internet
for both regular and one-time trips.

 Unplug

your cell phone charger and

other electronics from the wall when you
are not using them. Did you know that
even when turned off? your hairdryers,
cell phone chargers, and cameras use
energy?

 Replace

regular light bulbs with

compact fluorescent bulbs. These
compact bulbs produce the same
amount of light, last 10 times as long,
and use a 1/4 of the electricity
reducing your energy consumption and
your electric bill!
Make sure to turn off lights and other
energy-sucking devices when they
arent being used.

If you're leaving your computer for a

while, put it on stand-by. You'll be able
to restart it quickly, and it'll take less
energy unlike when shutting it down and
then restarting it.

Walk around the corner rather than drive. It

may be convenient to drive, but let's face it, it
probably takes longer than walking would, and
emits pollutants to boot.