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Introduction
History of Cyclones in Bangladesh
Last 50 years there are 7 major Cyclones, that
cause deaths more than 10,000.
Two of them (1970 & 1991) are in the Worlds
deadliest Natural Disaster list.
Geography of Bangladesh makes even Low
intensity Cyclones deadly.
Tropical Cyclone Mahasen, is forecast to make
landfall late Thursday or early Friday (BDT) in
southeastern Bangladesh, near the city of
Chittagong. It is likely to bring strong wind and
heavy rain to the surrounding region.
Introduction
Bangladesh is widely recognized to be one of the most
vulnerable countries to climate change. Cyclones and
storm surges have frequently devastated lives and
property in coastal zone Bangladesh.
Most studies focused on the economic loss, landfall of
the cyclone but fewer attempt has been made to
asses the shelter capacity and social vulnerability.
This study attempts to assess the vulnerability of
affected population on different climatic scenarios and
shelter capacity.
It will help the policy makers, emergency
management agencies for better evacuation planning.
Introduction
Objectives
Determine inundated areas under
different surge scenarios
Assess the population at risk due to
storm surges of cyclones
Assess the capacity of and needs for
cyclone shelters threatened in coastal
Bangladesh
Study Area
Coastal Districts of
Bangladesh
Methods
1. Data Sourses
Cyclones
Cyclone impact data including Wind Speed, Surge Height, and Tracks.
SOURCE :Bangladesh Metrological Department (1960-2009)
Population
2010 Census Data (processed by the authors) at the
district level. Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
Elevation
Digital Elevation Model (DEM) , USGS, 90 m x 90 m
Shuttle Radar Terrain Model (SRTM)
USGS, CEGIS, CDMP.
Cyclone shelters
Point data with attributes including capacity, usage
status, etc, DMB, CDMP.
Methods
2. Analytical Sequence of the Study
Historical Maximum
Surge Height
Historical Average Surge
Height
Predicted Extreme Surge
Height*
Socio-Economic Data
SOURCE: Bangladesh
Bureau of Statistics
Vulnerability Assessment
Shelters at Risk
Population at Risk
GIS Model
(ArcGIS Model Builder)
Inundation Map
Historical Average
Historical Maximum
Predicted Extreme
Areas at Risk
*Predicted Extreme Surge height for wind speed with return period 100 years
Methods
3. Deriving Assessment Scenarios
Mainly Based on Storm Surge Heights
Historical (1960-2008)
Predicted for the worst scenario
Three Scenarios
Historical Average Surge Heights = 4.6 m
Historical Maximum Surge Heights = 10.6 m
Predicted Extreme Surge Heights = 11.6
Methods
3. Deriving Assessment Scenarios
Prediction of Extreme Surge height
Return period : T = 100 years selected as
the extreme case
Log Pearson III: used for estimating the wind
speed:
Return period (yr)
T=25
T=50
T=100
T=200
Wind Speed (km/h)
241
260
277
293
Methods
3. Deriving Assessment Scenarios
Prediction of Extreme Surge height
Relationship
between
Surge height
and Wind
speed
At the 95%
confidence
level
Surge height
= 11.6 m
(should be
reported
Methods
4. ArcGIS Models for Surge Runup and
Mapping
Historical Maximum
Surge Height
Historical Average Surge
Height
Predicted Extreme Surge
Height*
GIS Model
(ArcGIS Model Builder)
Inundation Map
Historical Average
Historical Maximum
Predicted Extreme
Results
1. Summary of Vulnerability under Three
Surge Scenarios
Surge
Scenarios
Average
Height
Maximum
Height
Extreme
Height
Total
Inundated
Area (sq Km)
7,035.28
15.63
22,176.99
49.26
23,227.26
51.60
45,017.38
15,271,630 51.95
22,550,672
76.71
Affected
Population
Affected
Shelters
570
20.39
2,211
79.08
2,313
82.73
2,796
Capacity of
the Shelters
586,593
19.64
2,337,791
78.28
2,457,997
82.30
2,986,577
Results
Results
Results
Results
Results
Results
Results (cont)
For surge height of 4.6m total 15,271,630 people will be
affected with 15.63% of the region will be inundated. But
the situation is more severe for the predicted extreme
condition with 51.60% area inundated affection 22,779,315
people. Both the cases, the existing cyclone shelters are
inadequate to provide the necessary support.
To minimize the damage, instead of developing large
cyclone shelters, a dense network of small, sturdy and safe
multipurpose buildings should be developed. Considering
the
population
density,
cyclone
shelters
should
be
Limitations
Lack of High Resolution Terrain Data
Less availability of Cyclone related data
i.e. tidal situations, wave simulations etc
Socio-Economic data are estimated from
2010 census report does not have the
migration population
The model built in this simulation does
not take into account the effects that
reefs, buildings, rivers, canals, streams,
and other factors may have on the
cyclone surge, and therefore on the
actual area impacted by the surge run-up
Usages
This study will be useful for policy makers,
emergency management agencies, and public
health personnel to help reduce damage caused
by cyclones in Bangladesh.
This work will bridge the existing research gap
and will provide a research framework for future
studies.
Should provide useful information about cyclone
risk management and should be helpful in
assigning priority for the development of very
high risk areas due to surge, and the
construction and development sustainable
cyclone shelters.
This study may have considerable management
implications for emergency preparedness,
Conclusion
This study has examined the extent of storm
surge for different scenarios and the
inundation map was produced for the coastal
zone of Bangladesh.
Attempts were also made to identify the
vulnerable population group with shelters
affected by surge
From an academic point of view, there is a
need for further research on disaster-induced
risks, particularly in developing countries
where the topic has received scant attention .
Thank You!